2023 to end with 27.3% inflation – IC Research

Inflation for the year 2023 is projected to close at approximately 27.3% +/- 1.0, surpassing the government's upper target of 31.4% and central target of 29.4%, according to research firm IC Research.

The report indicates that the pace of disinflation is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2023 due to favourable base effects, reduced food price pressures, diminished impact of earlier tax hikes, and a slowdown in the cedi's depreciation post-January 2023.

The firm attributes this trend to an appropriately tight monetary policy stance, including the cessation of Central Bank financing for the Treasury's budget deficit.

Following a cumulative decline to 35.2% in October 2023, the research anticipates a potential full-year closure at 27.3% +/- 1.0 percentage points.

It envisions the declining momentum continuing into 2024, with the prevailing tight monetary stance and the ongoing IMF program serving as key policy anchors.

However, the report foresees a temporary upside detour in March 2024 due to an unfavorable base drift effect.

From May to July 2024, favorable base effects are expected to outweigh seasonal food price shocks, exerting downward pressure on headline inflation in the second half of 2023.

In October 2023, year-on-year inflation decreased to 35.2% from September's 38.1%, attributed to a marginal drop in food inflation.

Food inflation stood at 44.8%, while non-food inflation was at 27.7%. Additionally, locally produced items experienced inflation of 34.4%, while imported items recorded 34.4%, down from 37.4% in the previous month, according to data from the Ghana Statistical Service.