2024 Election: Bawumia leads Mahama with 49.1% in latest survey by Prof Smart Sarpong

The latest survey conducted by Professor Smart Sarpong, an associate professor of statistics at the Kumasi Technical University, has predicted that the 2024 presidential election would be won in the first round.

The survey puts the presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, in a clear lead in the presidential election with about 49.1% of the total vote cast.

Dr. Bawumia's closest contender, former President John Dramani Mahama, the flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), comes in second with about 45.8% of the vote.

The study also projected that the leader of the New Force Movement, Nana Kwame Bediako, would come in 3rd in the election with about 2.2% of the votes, while the leader of the Movement for Change, Alan Kyerematen, would take 4th position with 1.2% of the vote.

"As of 16 November 2024 (4 weeks to elections), NPP's Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia was in a 49.1% lead, NDC's Mr. John Mahama coming next with 45.8%, followed by Nana Kwame Bediako with 2.2%, and Mr. John Allan Kyeremateng with 1.2%.

"All other candidates put together obtained 1.7% of the votes. It is clear from this report that elections in 2024 can be won in the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory," excerpts of the study read.

Details of the survey also showed that the presidential candidate of the NPP would win 7 of the 16 regions in the country, while that of the NDC would win nine regions.

"Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western regions are the leading regions powering the NPP's 49.1% lead. Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savanna, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North regions are the leading regions powering the NDC's 45.8%."

BAI/SEA

Watch George Ayisi's interview with Adam Bonaa on the recent unrest in Bawku below: