The Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO) says its Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) has given credence to the 2020 Presidential Election result as declared by the Electoral Commission (EC), which President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo won.
The EC declared President Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) winner with 51.302 per cent of valid votes cast while the PVT estimate for him was 50.98 per cent with margin error of +1.20 per cent and a confidence level of 49.78 per cent to 52.18 per cent.
For Mr John Dramani Mahama, the Presidential Candidate of the NDC, who placed second in the race, the EC's score for him was 47.359 per cent whereas that of the CODEO’s PVT project for him was 47.66 per cent with an error margin of + 1.19 per cent and a confidence level of 46.47 per cent to 48.85 per cent.
The PVT is an advanced and scientific election observation technique that combines well-established statistical principles and Information Communication Technology (ICT) to observe elections.
It involves deploying trained accredited Observers to a nationally representative random sample of polling stations.
Sheikh Arimiyawo Shaibu, Acting Chair, CODEO, who presented the PVT report at a press conference in Accra, recalled that CODEO applied the PVT methodology for the first time in its election observation work in the year 2008 and had since used it in all subsequent presidential elections, including the current one (that is 2012, 2016 and 2020).
He said CODEO’s previous PVT estimates of the presidential election results had been consistent with the official results announced by the EC in 2008, 2012 and 2016.
Sheikh Shaibu said similarly, CODEO’s PVT voter turnout and rejected ballot rates in the previous elections had also been consistent with figures announced by the EC.
Regarding this year’s election, Sheikh Shaibu noted that by midnight of December 7, 2020, CODEO had received data of vote count from its 1,502 PVT Observers, who were deployed to a nationally representative random sample of polling stations located in every region and constituency of the country.
He said CODEO at that point could confidently verify the outcomes of the presidential election results as announced by the EC.
Sheikh Shaibu said the findings presented in their statement were based on data received from all 1,502 PVT polling stations across the 275 constituencies in the country’s 16 regions, adding that the data was thoroughly checked for accuracy and internal consistency.
He said each candidate’s official result closely matched the PVT estimate and falls within the estimated confidence of 95 per cent range and the associated margin of error.
Sheikh Shaibu said also, the PVT ranking of the presidential candidates based on their share of the valid votes received was “largely similar” to what was put out by the EC.
“Aside from the fact that the PVT estimates of candidates’ vote share received generally match the EC's official results, the PVT estimated rejected ballots of 2.25 per cent with a margin of error of ±0.11 per cent was also consistent with the EC’s figure of 2.33 per cent.”
He said the official voter turnout rate of 79.0 per cent announced by the EC was slightly outside the PVT voter turnout confidence range based on the estimated turnout rate of 79.69 per cent and error margin of ±0.46 per cent.
“It is worth noting, however, that this could be due to exclusion of the outstanding results from Techiman South Constituency with a total number of 128,018 registered voters.”
He said given that the official result announced by the Commission for each candidate falls within their respective PVT estimated confidence ranges, CODEO could confidently confirm that its PVT estimates were consistent with the official presidential election results.
He said the EC’s official voter turnout and rejected ballot rates were largely consistent with the PVT projections.
“CODEO further commends the maturity shown by Ghanaians throughout the voting, counting, and collating processes,” he said.
“CODEO deeply regrets the isolated cases of violence at some polling stations and constituency collation centres, which led to the loss of lives. CODEO expresses its condolences to the bereaved families, and wishes the injured citizens a speedy recovery,” Sheikh Shaibu added.