Findings of a study by IRIS Research Consortium suggest that the victor in the December 7, 2020, polls would have to win Ghana’s coastal regions – Greater Accra, Central and Western regions.
According to the study authored by Dr Khalid Musah, Dr John Osae-Kwapong and Dr Theo Acheampong, since 1992, every presidential candidate who has won the Greater Accra, Central and Western regions has gone on to win the general elections.
“These three regions remain the only regions that have consistently voted for every winner of the presidential election since 1992. The key reason underlying the oversize role they play in determining the winner of the presidential elections is their combined relative share of the number of registered voters,” a white paper issued on the study explains.
The researchers say they analysed election data from 1996 to 2016 and found that these swing regions account for 45% of all ‘lean’ and ‘toss-up’ constituencies in the country.
“Estimates from the just-ended voter registration exercise indicate that these three regions account for 54% of all registered voters on the voters’ register. Therefore, one can conclude that their ‘swingness’ and combined relative share of likely voters make them a must-win for any candidate who wants to win the presidency,” IRIS Research Consortium states in the white paper.
The findings of the study by IRIS is similar to that of pollster Ben Ephson, who has predicted that the regions that will decide the winner of the upcoming presidential election are Central and Greater Accra.
The governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) and opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) are the main contenders in the upcoming polls.
Although 12 political parties will contest the polls, many analysts believe the contest will be between these two political parties.
Read the full white paper below.