According to a Global InfoAnalytics report, John Mahama is expected to win the 2024 election with 52.2%, and the NDC will control parliament.

Leading research firm Global InfoAnalytics has predicted that National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate John Dramani Mahama will win the general elections scheduled for December 7. The most recent survey, which was issued a few days before the election, predicts that Mahama would receive 52.2% of the vote, more than his primary opponent, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), who is anticipated to receive 41.4%. Other candidates, such as Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, are expected to receive 3.0% and 2.5% of the vote, respectively, with lesser rivals accounting for the remaining 0.9%. With a predicted voter turnout of 77.6%, the analysis has a margin of error of ±1.8%.

Breakdown by Region Mahama is expected to maintain his popularity in traditional NDC strongholds by dominating ten regions, including important ones like Greater Accra, Central, Volta, and Northern. The NPP's sustained dominance in its base regions, however, is highlighted by Dr. Bawumia's predicted victory in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions. Prospects for Parliament According to the source, the NDC is expected to obtain roughly 150 seats in the legislative elections, which would represent a substantial increase for the party. With one seat probably going to an independent, the NPP is predicted to win 99 seats. However, 29 constituencies are still up in the air since they are considered too close to call.

As the NDC appears ready to solidify its hold on key constituencies while gaining ground in formerly NPP-dominated areas, this could signal a change in the parliamentary power dynamics. Important Factors Affecting Voter Behavior The survey identifies a number of variables influencing voter preferences, such as the state of the economy, job openings, and public service performance. Additionally, it highlights how crucial regional strongholds are to deciding the final election result.

Potential Differences The study presents scenarios in which, contingent on final voter turnout and the choices made by undecided voters, Mahama's support might range from 50.4% to 54.1%. Although the forecasts offer a clear picture of possible outcomes, the margin of error highlights how shifting voter sentiment is as election day draws near.