In a recent revelation, esteemed researcher and statistician Professor Smart Sarpong has generated buzz in the political arena by presenting a statistical analysis that suggests Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has a robust 92% chance of clinching victory in the New Patriotic Party's (NPP) delegates' election scheduled for November 4.
According to Prof. Sarpong's findings, Kennedy Agyapong follows closely with a 61.5% probability of success, while former Trades Minister Alan Kyerematen lags behind with a 46.6% likelihood of securing the nomination.
However, what makes Prof. Sarpong's analysis particularly intriguing is his insight into the influence of superdelegates on the broader electorate. He posits that the recent Super Delegates' Congress could significantly impact the choices made by delegates in the main polls in November.
Prof. Sarpong elucidated the mechanism behind his research, which included a sample size of 961 superdelegates. "There is something we call an elevation factor, which means dividing the population by the sample. Now, you go to the reasonableness of the elevation factor. The question I asked myself is whether the caliber of people who voted can have influence over the others, and for me, it is a resounding yes."
"These estimates are founded on statistical laws," he emphasized, adding that his margin of error is a mere 3.2% with a confidence interval of 95%.
Using his formula, Prof. Sarpong asserted that the superdelegates have the potential to sway the choices of their subordinates, thereby bolstering the prospects of their preferred candidate. He outlined the challenge facing Dr. Bawumia's supporters, noting that they need to convince at least 301 electors to enhance his chances of victory.
Furthermore, Prof. Sarpong revealed that the 132 delegates who voted for Kennedy Agyapong will need to rally an impressive 1,434 members, while each of the 95 faithful supporters of Alan Kyerematen must mobilize up to 1,992 delegates to vote for their choice.
"The question I asked myself is whether there is any constituency chairman who cannot influence 210 members of his constituency? Prof. Sarpong pondered
With the NPP delegates' election on the horizon, Prof. Sarpong's statistical analysis has set the stage for an intriguing and closely watched political contest where the influence of superdelegates may hold the key to the ultimate victor. Stay tuned for further developments as November 4 approaches.