Business News of 2026-10-15
Sub-Saharan Africa faces rising inflation despite 4.5% growth forecast - IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy will grow by 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027, but warned that rising inflation, high debt payments and declining foreign aid could threaten the region’s economic recovery.
In its October 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, the Fund said adjustments in global supply chains, favourable export earnings in some countries and earlier economic reforms had helped cushion the impact of the war in the Middle East.
However, the IMF noted that the growth outlook varied across countries, with economies that depend less on natural resources facing slower growth, while resource-intensive economies remained more resilient.
The Fund also warned that inflationary pressures were building across the region. Median inflation is projected to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027.
For Ghana, the regional outlook places emphasis on the importance of maintaining recent economic gains while preparing for external shocks, including higher energy prices, reduced foreign aid and fluctuations in global commodity prices.
Ghana relies on exports such as gold, cocoa and crude oil to generate foreign exchange and government revenue. Changes in international commodity prices can therefore affect the country’s finances and overall economic performance.
The IMF said fiscal adjustments and declining debt levels across the region were important achievements. However, high interest payments, limited foreign exchange reserves in some countries and falling aid flows were leaving governments with less room to respond to new economic challenges.
The risks to the outlook remain tilted towards weaker growth, with renewed energy supply disruptions, higher borrowing costs, further reductions in foreign aid and severe weather events, particularly El Niño, among the key concerns.
To address these challenges, the Fund recommends that governments continue to control public spending, save temporary gains from higher commodity prices and direct support towards vulnerable households. It also stresses the need to keep inflation under control.
The IMF further called on governments to protect investment in productive sectors and create conditions that allow private businesses to expand and create jobs.
For Ghana, the challenge will be to maintain fiscal discipline and price stability while supporting investment, expanding production and strengthening the economy’s ability to withstand external shocks.
Story by Mawuli Ahorlumegah, reporting from the 2026 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Thailand, Bangkok
