Global cocoa prices surge after Ghana raises farmer price

Global cocoa prices have climbed to their highest level in two weeks after Ghana increased the price paid to cocoa farmers for the 2026/27 crop season. Cocoa farmers in Ghana will now receive about $3,647 per tonne for the new crop season, representing a 2.4% increase from the previous price announced in February. The increase has supported cocoa prices on the international market, but it has also raised concerns about possible cocoa smuggling from neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire into Ghana. According to a report by Barchart, traders fear that some Ivorian farmers and dealers could move their cocoa beans into Ghana to benefit from the higher price. This could reduce the amount of cocoa officially reaching Ivorian ports and affect supplies to the international market. How a 5am call from Obasanjo got Dangote into cement production Cocoa prices are also receiving support from concerns about future production in West Africa. The US Climate Prediction Center has warned of a strong El Niño weather pattern. El Niño can bring hotter and drier conditions to West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture, damaging cocoa trees and lowering production. Ghana is already expecting a smaller crop. A field survey by the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) estimated the country’s 2026/27 cocoa production at about 650,000 tonnes, down 13% from 750,000 tonnes in the previous season. Earlier projections from COCOBOD also warned that production could fall as low as 450,000 to 550,000 tonnes due to swollen shoot disease, ageing cocoa farms and possible adverse weather conditions. There are similar concerns in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer. Early estimates put its 2026/27 production at around 1.8 million tonnes, down from about 2.2 million tonnes in the previous season. Poor pod development and the spread of black pod disease in parts of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire have added to concerns about the quantity and quality of cocoa expected from the region. Despite these concerns, cocoa supply has recently been strong. Côte d’Ivoire shipped about 2.18 million tonnes of cocoa to ports between October 2025 and September 27, 2026, up nearly 20% from the same period a year earlier. Ghana also recorded a strong 2025/26 season, producing about 750,000 tonnes, up 25.6% from 597,000 tonnes in 2024/25. Higher global cocoa stocks and weaker chocolate demand in some markets could also limit further price increases. European cocoa processing fell 4.6% in the second quarter, while North American processing increased by 7.7%. Asian cocoa processing also rose strongly by 25%. See the three levels you can use to make money – Bishop Kakra Baiden explains The global cocoa market is therefore being pulled in different directions. Strong current supplies and weaker demand in some markets are putting pressure on prices, while Ghana’s higher farmer price, expected production declines and El Niño concerns are supporting prices. For now, Ghana’s latest producer price increase has added fresh momentum to the international cocoa market, pushing prices to a two-week high while putting greater attention on cocoa supplies from West Africa. DR/MA Inside Ghana’s Abandoned Engineering Powerhouse: What Went Wrong? Source: www.ghanaweb.com
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