AU backs new Somali electoral deal as debate splits opposition group

Somalia’s key opposition figures have differed sharply on the future and mode of the country’s elections, with some endorsing a deal with the federal government to adopt a parliamentary system.

And the deal was backed by regional blocs—the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union.

The deal between a splinter group of the political opposition movement known as Somali Salvation Forum (The Forum) and delegates of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was reached on August 25. It brought in a faction of The Forum led by two-time former Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke, former Parliamentary Speakers Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan and Mohamed Mursal, and former minister Dahir Mohamud Gelle.

The group cut off from an overall movement that had included former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and other high-profile politicians, such as former prime ministers, legislators, and political figures who had ganged up against what they called unilateral reforms by the federal government.

According to a communiqué released at the conclusion of the talks held over two months, the Federal Parliament will elect the nation’s president, while leaders of federal member states will directly choose members of their legislative assemblies. This is a marked departure from the previously enacted presidential democracy, mandating the election of leaders via popular vote.

Both sides stressed that the agreement elaborates on how to conduct the country’s next elections, a step both sides insist emphasises to strengthen national unity and quicken Somalia’s state-building process.

Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, the Executive Secretary of IGAD, an eastern African organisation, welcomed the consensus reached between the Federal Republic of Somalia and some members of the Somali Salvation Forum.

“All parties to emulate this constructive step towards a comprehensive agreement, underscoring the value of compromise in achieving lasting solutions,” he said in a statement.

The African Union also supported the move. AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf called all signatories to the agreement to proceed “with its scrupulous implementation”.

“He urges all Somali stakeholders to extend full support to the consolidation of this political achievement, and to resort to dialogue and consensus in resolving all pending issues in the electoral process,” a dispatch said.

According to the deal, the federal president will have the authority to appoint a prime minister, subject to approval by the House of the People (Lower House of the Parliament). This will partly install a parliamentary democracy.

They also agreed that the next elections, whose dates are not yet public, will be based on the highly controversial 2024 electoral law, with preparations for local, state, and federal polls beginning immediately. The parties pledged to finalise work on Somalia’s Constitution, providing a legal pathway and enabling the establishment of institutional foundations. Somalia expects to hold elections in 2026.

However, the deal may not resolve the debate about the future of elections. Within hours, Abdirahman Abdishakur, an outspoken MP and an opposition figure, challenged the accord. He said it was short of what The Forum wanted from the Somali President. Abdishakur defined the accord as “the personal views of those who signed it, saying it is not representative of the position of The Forum, which wants a broad consensus.

Among many other concerns, he pointed a finger at thorny issues such as the government’s relations with federal states (Jubbaland and Puntland), its record on the Gedo crisis, misuse of public funds, and the fight against al-Shabaab. Since 2023, Mogadishu’s relations with Puntland and Jubbaland have been somewhat cold. It disagreed with Puntland on the mode of amending the constitution. After four chapters of the provisional supreme law was amended last year, Puntland said it had ‘paused’ cooperation with Mogadishu. Jubbaland too has had a rough ride after Mogadishu initially branded local leader Mohamed Madobe treasonous for conducting what it termed an “illegal” election. The Somali National Army and Jubbaland forces have also recently clashed in Gedo.

“The president’s timeline is unrealistic under current conditions,” Abdishakur argued.

So far, the Forum members who have kept out of the deal have yet to issue a formal response.

Abdishakur affirmed that the Forum members who went ahead to reach an agreement with President Mohamud had informed the group of their intentions on August 24, just a day before the deal was signed.

Just over a week ago, President Mohamud accused the country’s opposition figures of lacking a unified vision for national development, cautioning that split politics could weaken progress on key reforms.

Mohamud said, “The current alliance is divided and directionless”, comparing the opposition he is facing now to the coalition he joined in 2022.

“There is no unifying vision (in the opposition). Everyone is going in a different direction, and that does not lead to progress,” Mohamud said in an address to Galmudug State legislators in Dhusamareb town, about 500km north of Mogadishu.

“We must move away from politics based solely on individuals, and build political parties based on clear principles and visions,” he added, illustrating that said party politics (instead of the indirect electoral clan-based system) could yield a lasting political and social change.

Meanwhile, Dr Afyare Abdi Elmi, a researcher at City University in Mogadishu, used his X account to advise the Somali President on the fragility of the current situation and to accept inclusivity.

He urged President Mohamud to “initiate full return to the 2012 constitution and engage in negotiations with opposition leaders, Federal Member States (FMS) leaders not affiliated with your party, and other stakeholders in good faith for a timely dispensation in or around May 2026.”