Russia and Ukraine war
On February 21, 2022, President Vladimir Putin declared Ukraine's two
breakaway regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, independent. This was followed by
the launch of military action in support of these separatists, supported by
Moscow. Three days later, Russia launched air and missile attacks on
Ukraine's Donbas region, escalating into a full-fledged war.
Most Western nations strongly condemned the attack, which was met with economic
sanctions. However, the economic sanctions the United States and the
European Union imposed failed to prevent Russia from withdrawing its
troops.
Despite disparities and some systemic issues, such as poverty, malnutrition,
and inequality, Africa's economic development was the second-fastest in the
world until the fourth quarter of 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic, on the other
hand, slowed development in Sub-Saharan Africa to the point of undoing years
of social and economic progress.
Now, to counter Russian aggression, the United States and many European
countries have imposed severe sanctions on Russia. Despite its geographical
distance from Eastern Europe, the consequences of the war and the ensuing
economic sanctions will be disastrous for Africa. Although the impact will vary
by country, the two major areas where the continent will have the most
significant impact are food and energy security.
As the world's breadbasket, Russia and Ukraine are both significant suppliers of wheat and fertiliser to Africa. Food price increases, particularly for wheat,
would likely have the war's most significant and immediate impact on the
average African. African countries imported $4 billion in agricultural products
from Russia in 2020 and $2.9 billion from Ukraine. Corn accounted for 31% of
this imported product list, while wheat accounted for 48%.
The post-pandemic food demand, extreme weather, supply chain bottlenecks,
and export restrictions all harmed the African food market. The conflict would
exacerbate most of Africa's economy, which was already suffering from
climate change and the Covid-19 outbreak. As the current crisis raises the cost
of importing oil and natural gas for oil-importing African countries, the prices
of almost all commodities will rise. Price increases, particularly in food, will
devastate the continent's poor.
The availability of gas and oil is critical for maintaining growth and mitigating the effects of the pandemic. Europe's need for alternative gas sources in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis presents an opportunity for some resource rich African nations. Many African countries, including Algeria and Libya, may benefit from the rise in oil prices and use the opportunity to renegotiate their strategic alliance with Europe and pursue political goals.
With its geopolitical location and extensive hydrocarbon reserves, Algeria is
one of the African countries best positioned to benefit from the situation.
Many oil-producing countries, including Nigeria, Angola, Gabon, and Libya are
expected to benefit from the soaring oil prices. Similarly, gas-producing
countries such as Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Angola may also benefit if
they increase output.
Just before the war, Nigeria, Niger, and Algeria discussed constructing a single
Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline route. This crisis is expected to hasten the
dialogue and implementation. In fact, all three countries recently ratified the
"Declaration of Niamey" in order to increase their natural gas exports to
European markets. The majority of African countries, however, do not
produce gas or oil. For these countries, rising oil prices will result in higher
prices for fuel and related goods, as well as significant increases in
transportation costs.
During President Putin's visit to Egypt in 2017, an agreement was reached for
Rosatom to build the El Dabaa nuclear power plant in Egypt. Russia offered
Egypt a $25 billion loan to cover 85 per cent of the project's cost. Rwanda also
signed an agreement with Rosatom in 2019 to build a nuclear research center
and reactor in Kigali. Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Zambia have all signed similar
treaties with Russia. Because of the current situation, these projects may be
postponed or cancelled entirely, raising serious concerns about the continent's energy security.
Africa commemorated the OAU's 50th anniversary in 2013. AU also celebrated
its 20th anniversary this year. However, the Covid-19-induced rise in food
prices, drought in some African countries, and unrest in Ukraine hampered
this year's festivities. Another major source of concern is the continent's
ongoing political turmoil. Despite implementing a multifaceted strategy to end
ethnic conflicts, civil war persists in many African countries.
The Russia- Ukraine war has highlighted the continent's reliance on grain and fertiliser imported from Russia and Ukraine. While European sanctions against Russia impact their energy sources, the recovering African economies suffer the most, as they are less capable of adapting to these changing realities.
Undoubtedly, the rising cost of hydrocarbons and food prices are having the
most significant impact on Africa's fragile states, potentially delaying the
implementation of the much-needed Agenda 2063.
Except for the pandemic's effects, the continent's GDP has tripled over the
past two decades, making it the second fastest expanding region behind Asia.
Africa has become the new global centre of growth, despite its reputation as a
continent beset by poverty, civil unrest, famine, and corruption.
This is primarily because of its capacity for consumption, which is supported by the expansion of the middle class and capital inflow. With a median age of 19, it is a young continent. How the region's leaders manage its policies will largely determine whether or not the coming decade will be Africa's decade.
While the world tries to avoid a new world war from emanating in Ukraine,
Africa remains divided. African countries must tread carefully vis-a-vis the
Ukraine crisis, and must prioritise their national interests. Clearly, the post-
Ukraine crisis world is going to be turbulent for Africa.
The pandemic's negative effects were already affecting Africa's public health and economy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine would pose new challenges to the continent's growth and development, stifling its slow progress toward Agenda 2063. The Ukraine crisis will have a significant impact particularly on Africa's food and energy security.
The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York voted on a resolution demanding that Russia's military leave Ukraine on March 2nd. During the summit, 141 of the 193 participating countries supported a resolution condemning Russia. Only 27 African countries voted on the resolution at the UN General Assembly, highlighting the continent's growing dissatisfaction with the West. Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic have long been Russia's African allies. South Africa, Mozambique, Angola, Algeria, Madagascar, Namibia, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Zimbabwe all abstained.
South Africa chose to remain silent against Russia despite its opposition to
NATO's intervention in Libya and Israel's occupation of Palestine. Cameroon
and Ethiopia were both absent from the polls. The only African country to
vote against the resolution was Eritrea. Eritrea thus joined Russia and three
other staunch Russian supporters: Syria, Belarus, and North Korea.
The West was alarmed when Africa refused to condemn Russian aggression in
Ukraine at the UN General Assembly. However, despite the worsening humanitarian crisis in Africa, the West's lukewarm response to the continent's suffering is baffling.
Instead of assisting Africa in overcoming the disastrous consequences of food scarcity and price increases, their focus appears to be on countering Russian influence in Africa. And therefore, African reaction to the West's call to condemn Russia demonstrates the emergence of African realpolitik, quite rightfully. Going forward, African leaders must think strategically, removing emotions and personal gain from policy decisions.
