From Mali to Guinea-Bissau: Africa’s new era of coups

Guinea-Bissau, on November 26, 2025, joined the list of African countries that have returned to military rule, abandoning democracy. GIFT HABIB examines the recent events and the rising wave of military interventions across Africa

The military takeover in Guinea-Bissau on November 26, 2025, has pushed Africa deeper into what is increasingly viewed as a renewed era of coups. The seizure of power comes amid a series of military interventions across the continent since 2020, especially in West and Central Africa.

The coup, however, remains a controversy as African leaders believe it was stage-managed. Nigeria’s former President, Goodluck Jonathan, alleged that President Umaro Embaló staged the military coup in Guinea-Bissau to avoid losing a presidential election. He said the military takeover was a “ceremonial coup” and demanded that the election results be announced.

Expectedly, the Economic Community of West African States suspended Guinea-Bissau from its decision-making bodies during an emergency meeting of the ECOWAS Mediation and Security Council, which expressed deep concern over the unfolding political crisis.

“The MSC decides, in accordance with the provisions of the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance 2001 (A/SP/12/01), to suspend Guinea-Bissau from all ECOWAS decision-making bodies until the restoration of full and effective constitutional order in the country,” the statement announcing the decision of the bloc read.

For West Africa, a region once celebrated for democratic gains, the latest intervention underscores a troubling pattern that has unfolded with surprising speed. From the Sahel to Central Africa and now the Atlantic coast, military juntas have re-emerged as political actors, interrupting civilian rule and frequently extending transitional timelines.

While political and security contexts differ, the clustering of these coups has raised questions about the strength of democratic governance across the continent. The wave of coups has affected Guinea, Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, Madagascar, and now Guinea-Bissau, with coup scares reported in several other countries.

Guinea-Bissau’s coup history

The West African country is not alien to coups and instability. The first coup was in November 1980, exactly 45 years ago, when Prime Minister Joao Bernardo Vieira ousted President Luis Cabral in a bloodless coup. In 1985, several senior military officers, along with the first vice president, were arrested for an alleged coup attempt against Vieira. Six were executed in 1986, while several others died in detention.

In June 1998, a failed coup attempt triggered a civil war after Vieira dismissed Brigadier General Ansumane Mane from his position as chief of staff. Eventually, in May 1999, Vieira was overthrown in a military revolt led by Gen. Ansumane Mane, forcing Vieira to resign after a year-long civil war.

In 2003, Kumba Yala was elected president following two interim leaderships after Vieira. He faced a turbulent relationship with Gen. Mane, resulting in clashes during one of which Mane was killed. Yala was later ousted in a bloodless coup in September 2003. In 2004, Gen. Verissimo Correia Seabra, the military leader behind the coup, was killed during an army revolt.

Henrique Rosa assumed interim leadership until 2005, when Vieira returned to power after a runoff in the presidential election. However, after surviving at least two coup attempts and army revolts, Vieira was shot dead on March 2, 2009, by a group of soldiers allegedly loyal to his main rival, army chief of staff, Gen. Batista Tagme Na Waie, who had been killed in a bomb blast the previous day.

Following Vieira’s assassination, Raimundo Pereira assumed interim leadership until Malam Bacai Sanha was elected in September. Sanha died from illness in January 2012 before completing his term.

By April 2012, soldiers seized power between rounds of a presidential election, detaining interim President Raimundo Pereira, election front-runner Carlos Gomes Junior, and his challenger Kumba Yala.

In 2022, gunmen attacked the presidential palace during a cabinet meeting. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, however, survived. The government said it was a coup attempt linked to drug trafficking.

In December 2023, Embaló dissolved parliament after alleging a coup plot and gunfire near the National Assembly. In October 2025, the army announced the arrest of officers accused of planning to subvert constitutional order, and finally, on November 26, 2025, army officers, referring to themselves as “The High Military Command for the Restoration of Order,” announced they had ousted Embaló a day before presidential election results were to be announced.

Guinea-Bissau’s latest upheaval adds a new chapter to its long history of political instability. After a tense election period, the armed forces announced they had taken control of the country, suspended the electoral process, and closed its borders.

Gen. Horta N’Tam was appointed Transitional President by the military command in an episode that reflects Guinea-Bissau’s persistent institutional fragility and mirrors instability seen elsewhere in West Africa.

Mali’s dual power shifts

The resurgence of coups is often traced back to Mali in 2020, when soldiers overthrew President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta after widespread frustration over insecurity and governance failures.

In May 2021, Mali experienced a second coup, this time overthrowing the transitional civilian leadership. Col. Assimi Goïta consolidated control and later postponed elections. In 2025, Mali adopted a law extending military rule by five years, reinforcing the junta’s dominance.

Guinea-Bissau, on November 26, 2025, joined the list of African countries that have returned to military rule, abandoning democracy. GIFT HABIB examines the recent events and the rising wave of military interventions across Africa

The military takeover in Guinea-Bissau on November 26, 2025, has pushed Africa deeper into what is increasingly viewed as a renewed era of coups. The seizure of power comes amid a series of military interventions across the continent since 2020, especially in West and Central Africa.

The coup, however, remains a controversy as African leaders believe it was stage-managed. Nigeria’s former President, Goodluck Jonathan, alleged that President Umaro Embaló staged the military coup in Guinea-Bissau to avoid losing a presidential election. He said the military takeover was a “ceremonial coup” and demanded that the election results be announced.

Expectedly, the Economic Community of West African States suspended Guinea-Bissau from its decision-making bodies during an emergency meeting of the ECOWAS Mediation and Security Council, which expressed deep concern over the unfolding political crisis.

“The MSC decides, in accordance with the provisions of the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance 2001 (A/SP/12/01), to suspend Guinea-Bissau from all ECOWAS decision-making bodies until the restoration of full and effective constitutional order in the country,” the statement announcing the decision of the bloc read.

For West Africa, a region once celebrated for democratic gains, the latest intervention underscores a troubling pattern that has unfolded with surprising speed. From the Sahel to Central Africa and now the Atlantic coast, military juntas have re-emerged as political actors, interrupting civilian rule and frequently extending transitional timelines.

While political and security contexts differ, the clustering of these coups has raised questions about the strength of democratic governance across the continent. The wave of coups has affected Guinea, Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, Madagascar, and now Guinea-Bissau, with coup scares reported in several other countries.

Guinea-Bissau’s coup history

The West African country is not alien to coups and instability. The first coup was in November 1980, exactly 45 years ago, when Prime Minister Joao Bernardo Vieira ousted President Luis Cabral in a bloodless coup. In 1985, several senior military officers, along with the first vice president, were arrested for an alleged coup attempt against Vieira. Six were executed in 1986, while several others died in detention.

In June 1998, a failed coup attempt triggered a civil war after Vieira dismissed Brigadier General Ansumane Mane from his position as chief of staff. Eventually, in May 1999, Vieira was overthrown in a military revolt led by Gen. Ansumane Mane, forcing Vieira to resign after a year-long civil war.

In 2003, Kumba Yala was elected president following two interim leaderships after Vieira. He faced a turbulent relationship with Gen. Mane, resulting in clashes during one of which Mane was killed. Yala was later ousted in a bloodless coup in September 2003. In 2004, Gen. Verissimo Correia Seabra, the military leader behind the coup, was killed during an army revolt.

Henrique Rosa assumed interim leadership until 2005, when Vieira returned to power after a runoff in the presidential election. However, after surviving at least two coup attempts and army revolts, Vieira was shot dead on March 2, 2009, by a group of soldiers allegedly loyal to his main rival, army chief of staff, Gen. Batista Tagme Na Waie, who had been killed in a bomb blast the previous day.

Following Vieira’s assassination, Raimundo Pereira assumed interim leadership until Malam Bacai Sanha was elected in September. Sanha died from illness in January 2012 before completing his term.

By April 2012, soldiers seized power between rounds of a presidential election, detaining interim President Raimundo Pereira, election front-runner Carlos Gomes Junior, and his challenger Kumba Yala.

In 2022, gunmen attacked the presidential palace during a cabinet meeting. President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, however, survived. The government said it was a coup attempt linked to drug trafficking. In December 2023, Embaló dissolved parliament after alleging a coup plot and gunfire near the National Assembly.

In October 2025, the army announced the arrest of officers accused of planning to subvert constitutional order, and finally, on November 26, 2025, army officers, referring to themselves as “The High Military Command for the Restoration of Order,” announced they had ousted Embaló a day before presidential election results were to be announced.

Guinea-Bissau’s latest upheaval adds a new chapter to its long history of political instability. After a tense election period, the armed forces announced they had taken control of the country, suspended the electoral process, and closed its borders.

Gen. Horta N’Tam was appointed Transitional President by the military command in an episode that reflects Guinea-Bissau’s persistent institutional fragility and mirrors instability seen elsewhere in West Africa.

Mali’s dual power shifts

The resurgence of coups is often traced back to Mali in 2020, when soldiers overthrew President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta after widespread frustration over insecurity and governance failures.

In May 2021, Mali experienced a second coup, this time overthrowing the transitional civilian leadership. Col. Assimi Goïta consolidated control and later postponed elections. In 2025, Mali adopted a law extending military rule by five years, reinforcing the junta’s dominance.

On September 5, 2021, troops led by Lt. Col. Mamady Doumbouya arrested President Alpha Condé, ending his third term. Doumbouya has since led a transition that he says will return the country to civilian rule.

In November 2025, he submitted his candidacy ahead of elections scheduled for December, blurring the line between transitional leadership and political ambition.

Sudan’s interrupted transition

Sudan’s October 2021 coup overturned a fragile civilian–military power-sharing deal. The takeover by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan derailed the transition that followed the removal of Omar al-Bashir in 2019.

By April 2023, tensions within the security apparatus escalated into full-scale war between the armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces, plunging the country into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Burkina Faso’s back-to-back coups

Burkina Faso saw two coups in 2022. In January, soldiers ousted President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré. In September, Capt. Ibrahim Traoré deposed Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, citing persistent insecurity. Traoré has since extended the transition period, with elections now pushed to 2029.

Niger slides into military rule

Long seen as a relatively stable democracy in the Sahel, Niger experienced a military takeover on July 26, 2023, when the presidential guard ousted President Mohamed Bazoum. Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani assumed power, later extending the transition period for five more years. Because the Economic Community of West African States opposed his emergence, he led the country to exit the regional bloc.

Gabon ends Bongo dynasty

In Central Africa, Gabon’s military intervened on August 30, 2023, shortly after President Ali Bongo Ondimba was declared the winner of a disputed election. Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema became the transitional leader and, in 2025, was elected president under a new constitution that strengthened his authority.

Madagascar’s sudden military shift

In October 2025, Madagascar’s military removed President Andry Rajoelina following weeks of protests. Col. Michael Randrianirina was sworn in as leader, promising elections within 18 to 24 months.

Concerning pattern

The concentration of coups across Africa since 2020 has raised concerns about democratic resilience. West African countries such as Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and now Guinea-Bissau have all experienced complete breakdowns in constitutional order.

Despite varied national contexts, shared challenges are evident: weak institutions, disputed elections, worsening insecurity, and deepening public dissatisfaction. Regional bodies have struggled to respond effectively, leaving the political landscape uncertain.

As Guinea-Bissau’s coup reverberates across the continent, the broader question remains: will the cycle of military interventions continue, or can renewed efforts in governance, security, and institution-building reverse the trend? For now, the region remains on edge.

Reasons for coup resurgence

A retired diplomat, Amb. Mohammed Mabdul, said the pattern of military interventions is not surprising. According to him, “We are all familiar with how this happens. When the political environment becomes unstable, and people feel they are treated unfairly while citizens are suffering, it’s natural that they will revolt.

“No country carries out a coup if the pulse of society isn’t with them,” Mohammed explained.

The ex-envoy criticised leaders who consolidate power at the expense of democracy. “Once you are in power, instead of governing well and earning the people’s acceptance, some leaders choose dictatorship. They place themselves above the people.

“Democracy cannot survive when serious opposition is excluded. How can a country move forward under such conditions?” he questioned.

He also pointed to a wider problem of leaders pursuing power for personal gain rather than public service. “Too many leaders are just interested in power. They don’t know what to do with it. Some seek to inherit power for their children, others just enjoy comfort and perpetuate themselves in office. Popular support doesn’t matter to them.”

Mohammed said systemic issues compound the problem. “In Africa, we borrow political structures from Europe and America, but we don’t follow due process,” he said.

On the broader trend of coups, Mohammed said leadership failures, rather than isolated incidents, are to blame. “Common sense tells us we are doing things wrong in Africa. The number of countries affected by military takeovers fluctuates, but the underlying pattern remains: weak institutions and concentrated power drive instability.

It’s unfortunate, and people are frustrated, but often helpless,” he said.

A retired ambassador, Rasheed Akinkuolie, cautioned that military takeovers remain a dangerous and illegitimate response to political or economic dissatisfaction in West Africa, urging both national leaders and ECOWAS to take firmer steps to prevent the resurgence of coups in the region.

Akinkuolie stressed that the military must never assume a political role under any circumstances. “The military is not an alternative government, even if an elected civilian government is not doing well. The military is a servant of the people, like all civil and public servants, and should never elevate itself above the constitution and the wishes of the people,” he said.

He argued that military institutions are fundamentally unsuited to governance, adding that “The military is not trained to rule, but to defend the territorial integrity of a nation. A military government is illegitimate, unstable, and ultimately will make a bad situation worse. Most failed states always had a history of military regimes.”

Akinkuolie called on ECOWAS to adopt stronger, more decisive measures to deter coups, warning that sanctions alone have proved insufficient.

“ECOWAS’s intolerance of military regimes should go beyond sanctions. It must be enforced, and junta leaders should be punished retroactively for treason, to deter future coup plotters,” he said.

He also criticised ECOWAS’ participation in what he described as manipulated electoral processes, adding, “ECOWAS should not participate in sham elections, which involve a change of constitution to elongate tenure in office, like the case of the Ivory Coast, Benin Republic, and Guinea-Bissau.”

According to him, the credibility of the bloc’s threat of intervention must be restored. “The threat of military intervention must be credible, like the ouster of the junta in The Gambia.”

While condemning coups, the former diplomat also urged civilian governments to govern responsibly to prevent the conditions that often fuel military adventurism.

Brig. Gen. Bashir Adewinbi (retd.), speaking on the recurring military takeovers in some African countries, aligned with Mohammed that military interventions often stem from personal ambitions and a desire to hold power, rather than broader national interest.

Adewinbi said, “I believe there are some factors responsible for this.” He, however, said the factors behind these takeovers do not exist in Nigeria.

“If you look at the countries experiencing military takeovers, some of them face far more challenges than any state in Nigeria. It is easier for the military to intervene there. Nigeria is a large country, and the mistakes of past military regimes have been consistent here.

He said, despite the coups, democracy remains the order of the day. “Regardless of circumstances, people will rise against oppression. Everyone in Africa ultimately wants democracy, so leaders must act in ways that strengthen and entrench democratic principles. Democracy should encourage plurality, not be a hollow promise. Military rule may sometimes be portrayed as a liberation, but it is not ideal for any country.

“All major world powers were once ruled by the military, but they eventually returned to democracy and stabilised. That is the path Nigeria is following. We are stabilising now, and we have experienced this before. Nigeria does not need military intervention again. There is simply no need for it.”

Another retired senior military officer, Brig Gen Peter Aro, identified weak institutions, economic hardship and poor governance as key factors driving the recent resurgence of military coups across parts of Africa.

Aro said democracy requires discipline, patience and strong institutions, noting that the absence of these elements makes military intervention more tempting to soldiers.

He said, “Democracy requires discipline, patience, and strong institutions. When any of these are missing, the gun becomes more tempting than the ballot. The rise in military coups in Africa isn’t accidental; it is a symptom of multiple failures, many of which have been ignored for far too long.

“First, governance failure remains a major culprit. When political leaders weaken institutions, manipulate constitutions, or cling to power without delivering meaningful development, the military, rightly or wrongly, begins to see itself as the only alternative.

“In countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and now Guinea-Bissau, decades of corruption, disputed elections, and the collapse of credible public service created fertile ground for soldiers to claim public backing.

“We also cannot ignore the economic pressure cooker that grips the continent. Poverty, rising cost of living, youth unemployment, and deepening hopelessness push citizens into frustration. In such climates, people easily mistake coups as “resets,” even though history consistently shows that they solve very little.

“Added to this is the growing insecurity across many African states: terrorism, banditry, separatist crisis, all exposing the weakness of civilian governments. The military then feels emboldened to say, ‘Since you cannot secure the country, we will step in.’ That logic is dangerous, but it is becoming increasingly common.

“Sincerely, many African countries never fully reformed their military-civilian relationship after independence. The barracks still sees itself as a guardian, not a subordinate, an old colonial hangover that continues to shape political behaviour.

“So, Africa’s coup wave is not merely about soldiers being power-hungry. It reflects weak institutions, fragile economies, corrupt political elites, frustrated citizens, and unresolved historical tensions. Until these root causes are confronted and addressed, the cycle will continue.”