Popular African leaders who saw ‘Canaan,’ but never got there

Former prime minister and ODM leader Raila Odinga joins a group of African leaders who were popular and influential but never attained power to lead their countries.

These include Etienne Tshisekedi, the father of the current Democratic Republic of Congo president Felix Tshisekedi, who became president in 2019; the late John Garang Mabior of Southern Sudan; the late Patrice Lumumba of the DRC; and Nigerians Moshood Kashimawo Abiola—whose June 1993 presidential victory was annulled by the state—and Obafemi Awolowo.

Raila himself is famously regarded by his supporters to have won the people’s power to lead the country in the four general elections he contested- 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022- but was denied the victory.

In 2017, he successfully petitioned the Supreme Court against President Uhuru Kenyatta’s victory in what he called a sham presidential election. But when the country’s electoral commission failed to assure him of a fair playing field in the presidential election as decreed by the Supreme Court, he boycotted it and, on January 30, 2018, he swore himself as people’s president at the historical Uhuru Park grounds, Nairobi.

University of Nairobi (UoN) lecturer Herman Manyora notes that Raila goes down in history as the president Kenyans never had.

“You see the scenes that greeted the arrival of Raila’s body and you only imagine the love that the people had in him. These scenes cannot be compared to the deaths of Moi and Kibaki. He is truly an enigma,” Mr Manyora said.

The first time he contested for the presidency was in 1997, then as Nairobi’s Lang’ata MP, he came a distant third, after then president Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki, who later in 2002 became president.

In 2007, Raila’s victory was widely believed to have been stolen, sparking post-election violence after Samuel Kivuitu, chairman of the defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK), remarked that he did not know who between Raila and Kibaki won the election.

Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua notes that Raila was a leader that Kenya will long remember for ages.

“In the three elections that our party leader Kalonzo Musyoka was his running mate or supported him, our people voted for him and gave him the highest percentage of votes. It is unfortunate that he never became the president,” Senator Wambua said.

Mr Manyora says that “just like Raila, Etienne Tshisekedi was known for his democracy advocacy, human rights and social justice and played a significant role in the country's struggle against authoritarian rule.”

“Each time Tshisekedi served as the PM, he was either dismissed or obstructed by then President the late Mobutu Sese Seko,” Mr Manyora said.

Tshisekedi was a prominent Congolese politician and opposition leader who served as Prime Minister three times – 1991, 1992-1993 and 1997.

As opposition leader, he founded the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) in 1982 and remained a vocal critic of Mobutu's regime and later the governments of the late Laurent-Désiré Kabila and his son, Joseph Kabila.

John Garang, founder of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and former First Vice President of Sudan, fought hard for the liberation of the people of South Sudan but did not become its leader.

Governance expert Barasa Nyukuri says that Garang’s death in 2005, aged 60, largely contributed to South Sudan gaining independence in 2011 from Khartoum after a referendum in which 98.83 percent of voters chose to secede.

“The new nation has faced significant challenges, including a civil war from 2013 to 2018 and ongoing political instability, ethnic violence, and humanitarian crises,” Mr Nyukuri notes.

Lawyer David Ochami notes that although Patrice Lumumba’s legacy is complex, with some viewing him as a hero and others criticising his leadership and decisions, he played a key role in the country's fight for independence from Belgium.

“Just like Raila Odinga, Lumumba was known for his charisma, oratory skills and the vision for a united and independent Congo,” Mr Ochami said.

Lumumba was a key figure in his country’s independence movement, advocating for an end to Belgian colonial rule. He became the first Prime Minister of DRC after independence was declared on June 30, 1960 and was assassinated on January 17, 1961, in Elisabethville, now Lubumbashi.

“Lumumba is remembered as a symbol of resistance against colonialism and oppression and was a proponent of pan-Africanism, believing in the unity and solidarity of African nations,” Mr Ochami said.

“His assassination contributed to regional instability and conflict in Congo, which persists to this day. Nonetheless, Lumumba's vision for African unity and solidarity continues to inspire pan-Africanist movements.”

Moshood Abiola, a Nigerian business magnate, publisher and politician, was widely believed to have won Nigeria's freest and fairest presidential election in June 1993, but was denied the presidency by the military regime of General Ibrahim Babangida.

He declared himself president in 1994, leading to his arrest and imprisonment by then General Sani Abacha's regime and died in custody on July 7, 1998.

Obafemi Awolowo, a journalist, was the official opposition leader in the federal parliament to the Balewa government from 1959 to 1963.

Awolowo and his several followers were arrested, charged, convicted of treason and jailed under Balewa for conspiring with the Ghanaian authorities to overthrow the federal government.

By 1966, he was released and pardoned by the government, after which he assumed the position of Minister of Finance.

From this position, he helped negotiate the joint venture rights of Nigeria in its new oil find, ushering in a decade of oil boom and providing the bulwark of national wealth.

In 1979 and 1983, he contested under the Unity Party's platform as a presidential candidate but lost to the northern-based National Party of Shehu Shagari.

In 1979, he contested his loss in court, arguing that the winning candidate could not be said to have won, having failed to secure a majority in two-thirds of the states, then 19.