South Africa coronavirus lockdown: Is the alcohol ban working?

The ban on the sale and transportation of alcohol during the coronavirus lockdown in South Africa has emptied hospital beds, ruined businesses, provoked violence and political disputes, and has led to a surge of interest in pineapples, writes the BBC's Andrew Harding from Johannesburg.

The idea was simple.

Ban all booze, and you'll prevent drunken fights, reduce domestic violence, stop drunk driving, and eliminate the weekend binge-drinking so prevalent across South Africa. Police, medics and analysts estimate - conservatively - that alcohol is involved in, or responsible for, at least 40% of all emergency hospital admissions.

In normal times some 34,000 trauma cases arrive at emergency departments in South Africa every week.

But since the nationwide lockdown came into force last month to prevent the spread of coronavirus, that figure has plummeted, dramatically, by roughly two thirds, to about 12,000 admissions.

"It's a significant impact," said Professor Charles Parry, with some understatement.

He has been modelling the extent to which the alcohol ban has been responsible for the decline in those numbers for South Africa's Medical Research Council.

"If we end the prohibition on alcohol sales, we're going to see about 5,000 alcohol admissions in trauma units coming back into the system [each week]," he predicted.

Anger in some quarters

The fact that those 5,000 extra hospital beds now stand empty could soon prove invaluable if the pandemic - which has been held, impressively, in check here for several weeks - begins to spread again exponentially, as government advisors predict it may.

But medical experts, while urging the government to keep the alcohol ban in place, also point out that heavy drinking weakens the immune system and may have a particular effect on respiratory conditions.

"COVID-19 is going to have a more severe impact on heavy drinkers… and in South Africa, many people live in crowded conditions.

"So, alcohol sales… may increase community transmission [as people often drink socially]… and we're likely to see an increase in gender-based violence and harm towards children," warned Professor Parry.

But how to enforce such a draconian and unprecedented clampdown for five weeks, or possibly more if South Africa's lockdown, due to end on 30 April, is extended once again?

The man responsible for policing the new prohibition has provoked anger in some quarters by appearing to encourage the security forces to take heavy-handed, and potentially illegal, action against those caught breaking the rules.

There have already been numerous worrying examples, including the alleged beating to death of a man caught drinking in his own yard.

Police Minister Bheki Cele, well-known for his abrasive language and his swaggering enthusiasm for the alcohol ban, recently warned that his forces would "destroy the infrastructure where the liquor is sold".

"It's deeply concerning when you have senior political leaders encouraging police officers to use violence or force, or to break the law. It seems as if the police minister has gone rogue," said Gareth Newham, a crime expert at South Africa's Institute for Security Studies.