Some ANC party supporters
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) was on Friday in permutation mode after early vote results showed the party’s lowest score since 1994 when it ascended to power.
The party had seen this coming, with a series of opinion polls predicting a less-than-50 per cent score. Now, that reality means that Mandela’s party will be looking for a potential partner among its rivals to form a coalition government.
Those permutations have been the subject of widespread international media attention largely because a coalition government would be the first time in post-apartheid South Africa, even though it has been legal all these years.
Whoever ANC picks as partner will still upend the future internal and posture of South Africa, given the divergent ideologies of the political parties competing in this election, the seventh since 1994.
The party’s main rivals are the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) of former President Jacob Zuma and the Democratic Alliance (DA) of John Steenhuisen.
They are ANC’s options should its loss of parliamentary majority after three decades in government be confirmed by the electoral authorities. Each of these parties has a different ideology on economy, land tenure, foreign policy, pan-Africanism and national unity.
By Friday, word was that ANC could reach out to the DA, which has had fewer public spats with the ruling party, compared to EFF and MK.
Its only sin is that it is comprised of mostly white minority South Africans, evoking the memories of years before ANC came to power. DA has, however, in the recent past, been expanding its membership among other communities, marketing itself as a moderate party.
EFF and MK, on the other hand, are comprised of former ANC stalwarts who fell out with the establishment. They are still suspected of bearing intentions to kill the ANC from within.
The DA’s campaign centred around the slogan “Rescue South Africa.” The party made ambitious promises, including lifting six million people out of poverty, creating two million jobs, and adopting a “balanced approach” to privatising state-owned companies. However, the DA has faced criticism from many Black South Africans who perceive it as biased towards the interests of White people.
But the EFF could emerge as President Ramaphosa’s saviour after Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, ruled out a potential coalition with the ANC, with MK poised to be a kingmaker in KwaZulu-Natal.
Ms Zuma said her father was only open to working with “progressive black parties”. His fractured relationship with President Ramaphosa, his successor who currently leads the ANC, seemingly excludes the ruling party.
ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe may have touched off a storm when he blamed tribalism for the MK party’s performance.
“I don’t think we should lock ourselves into Zulu tribalism. Tribalism is a backward form of politics, it has its timeframe and then disappears. If that is the factor, I am not worried,” said Mantashe.
On the other hand, EFF shares a symbiotic, yet contentious relationship with the ANC. The party started off as a breakaway faction of the ANC after the expulsion of its youth leader, Mr Malema.
The DA seems the most likely coalition partner.
The impact of these elections extends beyond the Rainbow Nation’s borders, with implications for the entire continent.
The implications are vast, from the potential for addressing corruption and stabilising the economy to South Africa's role as a welcoming place for immigrants. Moreover, the reliability of other Southern African Development Community partners on Pretoria adds another layer of significance to this pivotal moment in the country's history.
South Africans turned out to vote on May 29 in what was hailed as the most fiercely contested election since the end of apartheid. Early results showed the ANC straggling at 42 percent, eight points lower than the ideal.
The EFF argued that apartheid did not truly end in 1994, contending that the democratic settlement left the country's economy under the control of "white monopoly capital." The EFF has advocated the expropriation of land without compensation, open border policy and the nationalisation of various industries, including banks and mines.
Cape Town-based political analyst Mandla Mzimela believes the 2024 polls could have far-reaching implications for the SADC region.
“The outcome could influence regional dynamics, trade agreements, and foreign policy decisions. It may also impact investment and development initiatives within Africa,” Mzimela told The EastAfrican. Additionally, the election results could shape South Africa's role in addressing continental challenges such as security, climate change, and economic cooperation.
“Over the past two decades, South Africa has gained considerable respect and influence within the international community, particularly in the Sub-Saharan Africa. The country's economic significance and role as a driving political force in the African Union have solidified its position as a key player in the continent,” he added.
Johannesburg has actively supported peace missions across the continent, further enhancing its reputation as a significant contributor to stability and development. This recognition has elevated the nation to the status of an important emerging power, granting it access to prominent international platforms such as the United Nations Security Council (2007-2008 and 2011-2012), the G20, and the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).
ANC’s stranglehold on power has weakened over the past decade. Despite their victory in the 2019 election, the party struggled to fulfil its commitments to enhance the economy, reduce the cost of living, end power outages and unemployment, reduce the crime rate, and tackle corruption.
South Africa is widely recognised as one of the most unequal countries globally, highlighting the pressing need for meaningful change and progress.
The unemployment rate reached about 33 percent this year, more than 10 percentage points higher than in 1994. Many South Africans are frustrated with regular power cuts and high levels of violent crime. The nation has one of the world’s highest murder rates and corruption is a major concern. According to Dominic Maphaka, a scholar from North-West University, the ANC has failed “to sustain the achievements recorded in the early days of democracy.”
“The people on the ground want sustainable jobs and basic services, which are absent. Recounting the transformative policies and welfare programmes that do not bring structural changes to the poor majority is an old strategy that cannot save the ANC,” Mr Maphaka said.
Former Kenya president Uhuru Kenyatta, head of the African Union Election Observation Mission, addressed the media on Thursday, and stressed his “trust in the electoral system and his belief in the importance of maintaining calm and confidence in the democratic process”.
The Independent Electoral Commission oversaw the voting process, which was marred by protests, power outages, disruptions and issues with voter management devices in different parts of the country. Queues as long as those last seen in the 1994 polls might have indicated a higher voter turnout. But they also pointed to inefficiencies in the voting processes.
In the Eastern Cape, voting stations were closed due to protests over service delivery, while in the Western Cape, problems with voter management devices led to long queues.
There were also reports of altercations at certain voting centres, including a standoff between residents and the EFF members in Cape Town.
With ANC on course to lose majority for first time in 30 years, Ramaphosa is likely to face calls to quit over the result.
Incidents of obstruction by IEC officials and theft of (IEC) property were reported in the North West Province.
In Gauteng, there were complaints of voters travelling between stations and late ballot paper arrivals.
In KwaZulu-Natal, attempts were made to interfere in the IEC's work, and some stations opened late due to protests.
In the Free State, a voting station handed out only two of the three ballot papers. In Limpopo, there were no significant disruptions on voting day, but pre-election clashes resulted in injuries, including a nine-year-old girl sustaining a bullet wound to the head.
Gontse Chauke was among the people who cast their votes in the early hours of Thursday after waiting for over eight hours. Voting stations were scheduled to operate nationwide between 7 am and 9 pm.
“As I was determined to vote, I waited in the queue until the morning. I know whatever vote I made will affect my life for the next five years. That is why I waited so long,” he said.
