How military coup for Niger make Sahel region more fragile

From Mali for west to Sudan for east, one whole part of Africa dey under military control now.

Niger bin be one of di democracy wey bin remain for di Sahel region wey spread across di continent.

Niger President Mohamed Bazoum – one major partner of di West for di fight against Islamist militants – bin rebel afta soldiers announce coup on Wednesday.

But now im dey detention, di army chief support di military rule and di head of Niger former colonial master France plus US get military base for di uranium-rich kontri and dem two don condemn di coup.

Worry dey say Niger new leaders fit no wan anytin to do wit di Western as dem fit go close to Russia instead.

If e happun like dat, e go follow di way of im two neighbours - Burkina Faso and Mali – wey don face front towards Moscow afta dia recent coup.

Dem bin don dey under pressure from Islamic militants wey dey operate as dem like for dia kontris.

Even though Niger bin don dey battle im own Islamic militants plus bandits for im villages, e bin dey stable pass im neighbours.

According to di Armed Conflict Location and Events Data Project, di number of pipo wey don die from political violence since 2021 dey low for Niger.

But na di jihadist threat be di major reason wey di military give for di coup, as dem argue say dem need to fight di insecurity.

Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane, wey speak on behalf of di regime say na di "weak security situation" and poverty be dia reason for takeover.

Im statement no too different from wetin coup leaders from di oda two kontris give as excuse, even though di mata wey dey ground different.

But even wit di coup for dis two kontris, tori be say wit di about 1,000 heavily armed mercenaries from Russia Wagner group for Mali, jihadist attack don increase since military takeovers.

Well-documented cases of human rights abuses, wey include di killing of hundreds of civilians for Mali by di security forces and foreign fighters dey.

President Mohamed Bazoum goment also don be partner to European kontri trying to stop di flow of migrants across di Mediterranean Sea, agreeing to take back hundreds of migrants from detention centres for Libya.

E don also crack down on human traffickers for wetin don be key transit point between oda kontri for West Africa and those further north.

Dat fit may now be called into question.

And if dem ask Western and UN troops to comot Niger - as dem don do for Mali and Burkina Faso - e go be a big blow to di fight against Islamic insurgents, wey dey likely to move quickly to take advantage of any instability for di kontri.

Dem don dey hear pro-Kremlin commentators on state-run media and Telegram groups describing di coup as a pathway for Russia entry into Niger.

However, one Kremlin spokesperson don call for Mr Bazoum release and for a peaceful resolution to di crisis.

Despite di presence of some supporters of di coup waving a Russian flag and condemning France, di former colonial power, no evidence dey of any Russian involvement for di military takeover.

So we dey wait to hear wetin di junta leaders say about di kontri future strategic alignment - whether e go maintain im ties with di West, or joins im neighbours in embracing a new Russian sphere of influence for Africa.

Dis latest seizure of power also raise questions about whether di slow advance of democracy seen across Africa for recent decades now dey under threat.

Even as West Africa's regional economic bloc Ecowas dey seek to broker a peaceful solution, di stability of di region dey more fragile dan e don be for some time.