Why India rice ban fit cause worldwide food crisis

Wetin go happun wen India ban di exports of food staple wey dey important for billions of pipo diet for around di world?

For 20 July, India ban di exportation of non-basmati white rice to try calm di rising price of rice for house. Afta dis, tori and videos land as pipo dey panic buy and empty rice shelves for Indian grocery stores for di US and Canada, wey raise di prices.

Thousands of rice varieties dey wey dem dey plant and chop but na only four main groups dey sold worldwide. Di slim long grain Indica ice na di one wey dey sell mot for world, while di rest na di fragrant rice like basmati, di short grain Japonica and wey dem dey carry make sushi o rissotto and sticky rice wey dem dey use make sweet.

India na di numer one rice exporter for world as dem make up about 40% of di global trade.

Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and di US follow join top exporters.

Among di major pipo wey dey buy di rice na China, di Philippines and Nigeria.

Dem be "swing buyers" like Indonesia and Bangladesh wey dey increase dia imports wey domesticc supply reduce.

Di way Africa dey chop rice dey high and still dey grow dey go.

For kontris like Cuba bad Panama na dia main source of energy.

Last year India bin export 22 million tonnes of rice go 140 kontris.

Six million tonnes of di rice na di Indica white rice wey cheap pass. Di gloal trade in rice bin reach 56 million tonnes.

Indica white rice dey lead about 70% of global trade and India now don stop to export.

Dis dey come on top of di kontri bank last year of di exports of broken rice and di 20% duty for no-basmati rice exports.

E no dey surprising say July export ban don create worry say di global rice prices go high like mad.

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas dey tink sat si ban go drive up prices and di global price for grain fit rise up to 15% dis year.

Also India export no come at beta time atall na wetin Shirle Mustafa, wey be rice market anlyst for di UN Food an d Agriculture Organisation (FAO) tok.

Global rice process don already dey rise since early 2022 sotay e don rise reach 14% since last June.

Secondly, supplies don dey low sake of say di new crop go enta market in about three months time.

Cold weather for South Asia, like di uneven monsoon rains for India nad floods for Pakistan don affect supply. Also di cost to grow rice don increase becase di price of fertilizers dsef don go up.

Di devaluing of currencies don lead t o increase in import prices for pletin kontris and high inflation don increase borrowing costs inside di business.

Ms Mustafa say, "we dey for situation wia importers dey tighpt position. Na to see weda buyers fit cope with more price hikes remain."

India get stockpile of 41 million tonnes of rice wey be three tims more than di buffer requirement for public granaries for dia strategic reserves and di Public Distribution system (PDS), wey dey give more than 700 million poor pipo access to cheap food.

Ova di last year, India don dey face food inflation, as domestic rice prices don increase by 30% since last October, wey don cause more pressure on top goment head even as di general elections dey hold next year. Also as batch of state level elections dey come up in di next couple of months, di rising cost of living dey pose wahala for goment.

Joseph Glauber of International Food Policy Research Institute (Ifpri) tok say, "I suspenct sat di action to ban non-basmati rice exports na majorly to be careful so hopefully e dey temporary."

Devinder Sharma, wey be sabi pesin for agriculture policy for India sat di goment wan dey in front of wetin dem dey predict say go be production shortage, sake of say rice growing regions for di south dey exposed to di risk of dry rain as di El Nino weather go waka pass later dis year.

Many pipo tink say India suppose avoid rice export ban because e go bad for global food security.

Moe than half of di rice imports for around 42 kontris dey come from India and for many African kontris, India market share for rice imports pass 80%, according to Ifpri.

"Dis bans go affect di vulnerable pipo pass cos na most of dia income dem dey carry buy food," na wetin Ms Mustafa tok. "Rising proces fot make dem to reduce di food dem dey chop or switch to oda kain food wey no good nutritionally or cut money from tins like housing or food."

But India ban go allow goment shipments to kontris sake of food security.

Food export bans no new.

Since last year wen Russia invade Ukraine, di kontris wey don put export restrictions for food, don increase from three to 16, according ot Ifpri.

Indonesia ban palm oil exports; Argentina ban beef exports, and Turkey and Kyrgyzstan ban rainge of grain products.

For di first four weeks of di Covid pandemic, about 21 kontris start export restrictions on range of products.

But sabi pipo say India export ban fit cause greater risks.

Ashok Gulati and Raya Das warn sat e go "surely cause spike in global prices of white rice" and "affet food security for many African kontris".

Gulati and Das na from di Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (Icrier), wey be think-tank for Delhi.

Dem believe sat di wat for India to become "responsible leader of di Global South for G-20", make e avoid dat kain sharp ban.

Dem say, "but di bigger damage go be make world look India like very unreliable supplier of rice".