Analysing Prof Smart Sarpong’s baseline survey: Insights and implications for Ghana's 2024 elections

Prof. Smart Sarpong recently conducted a baseline survey that offers a thorough examination of Ghana's political landscape in anticipation of the 2024 elections. The study, which encompassed a substantial sample size of 59,547 respondents, provides an intricate insight into the preferences, concerns, and probable voting behaviours of the Ghanaian electorate.

The study provides a detailed and subtle portrayal of the level of support for political parties throughout Ghana. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) now has a tiny advantage in terms of overall popularity, with a support rate of 38.8%, compared to the New Patriotic Party's (NPP) support rate of 34.5%.

Regional dynamics are essential in determining the voting results. The NDC is positioned to emerge victorious in eight regions, namely Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, and Volta. In contrast, the NPP would probably achieve triumphs in Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, Northeast, Western, and Western North.

A noteworthy discovery is the preference for Dr. Bawumia rather than John Dramani Mahama. Dr. Bawumia, the candidate representing the NPP, currently holds a slight advantage with 38.9% of respondents expressing their preference for him, while Mahama of the NDC has garnered 36.1% support. Dr. Bawumia's preference indicates that he has the potential to gain popularity as a candidate in the 2024 elections, particularly if his campaign successfully emphasizes his competence and problem-solving skills.

The report also explores distinct regional voting tendencies. For example, it is estimated that the North East region will provide Dr Bawumia with a significant 60% of the votes, demonstrating a solid endorsement of the NPP in that particular area. Conversely, the Volta region, which has historically been a major support base for the NDC, is projected to allocate 75.6% of its votes to the party.

Nevertheless, the anticipated decrease in votes for the NDC in Volta, along with a rise in NPP backing in the Northern regions, signifies a changing political terrain that necessitates cautious manoeuvring by both parties. Approximately 21.4% of the voting population has not yet decided on who to vote for.

The floating voters constitute a crucial demographic that has the potential to significantly influence the outcome of the election. Both the NDC and NPP must proactively focus on this demographic, addressing their problems and providing compelling justifications to secure their support.

The poll indicates that voters' choice of presidential candidate is primarily influenced by their assessment of the candidate's competence, track record, and party membership. Competency is deemed the most significant factor by 50.1% of respondents. Dr. Bawumia's emphasis on addressing critical concerns seems to have struck a chord with voters, giving him an advantage over Mahama in this aspect. Unemployment is seen as the primary problem for Ghanaians, as mentioned by 21.1% of the participants.

Although power crises, debt conversation, and corruption are not major worries, the significant issues of economic downturn, inflation, and inadequate roads have the potential to impact voting behaviour. Curiously, the 2024 elections are anticipated to be less influenced by factors like as location and ethnicity, suggesting a move towards a voting pattern that is more focused on specific issues.

Prof. Sarpong's survey findings provide practical and implementable insights for both the NDC and NPP. Regarding the NDC, although the party maintains its popularity, it needs to confront the decreased favorability towards its candidate, Mahama. To bridge this gap, it would be beneficial to improve his perceived competency and give a clear, solution-oriented objective.

The NPP can secure victory by strategically promoting Dr Bawumia's strong attributes and properly addressing the apprehensions of hesitant voters. Emphasizing Dr Bawumia's track record of effectively solving problems could be a crucial tactic, considering the significant value placed on competence.

In preparation for the 2024 elections, it is crucial for both main political parties in Ghana to thoroughly examine these poll results to customize their campaigns. To secure voter support, it is necessary for politicians to successfully address the electorate's concerns, especially about unemployment and economic challenges while communicating their competencies.

The competition for the undecided voters is expected to be the determining element in what is anticipated to be a tightly contested election.