Analyzing the Fourth Republican Elections in Ghana: The peculiarities of the 2024 elections

The Fourth Republic of Ghana, established in 1992, has seen a series of elections that have shaped the country's political landscape. However, the 2024 elections stand out as particularly peculiar, marked by unique dynamics that could significantly influence the outcome.

This article delves into these peculiarities, the key figures involved, and what Ghanaian youth should consider as they head to the polls on December 7, 2024. The Fourth Republican elections in Ghana have been pivotal in shaping the country's political landscape. Here's a retrospective look at some key aspects and trends:

1. Historical Context

Establishment: The Fourth Republic began in 1993, following the end of military rule and the adoption of a new democratic constitution in 1992. The transition marked a significant shift towards multiparty democracy after years of authoritarian and military governance.

2. Major Elections

1992 Election: The first election of the Fourth Republic saw Flt Lt. Jerry John Rawlings, representing the National Democratic Congress (NDC), win the presidency with an overwhelming margin of 58.40% as against NPP’s 30.29%. This was the beginning of a series of elections that would test Ghana’s democratic resilience.

1996-2000 Elections: Rawlings was re-elected in 1996 and served until 2000. His presidency was characterized by efforts to stabilize the economy and address corruption. The 2000 elections marked a significant political shift with the NPP’s John Agyekum Kufuor defeating Rawlings' successor, John Evans Atta Mills, in a highly contested election.

2004-2008 Elections: Kufuor was re-elected in 2004, continuing his policies of economic reform. In 2008, the elections were extremely close, and the NDC’s candidate, John Atta Mills, narrowly won against the NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo.

2012 Election: This election was marked by controversy and legal disputes. John Mahama of the NDC won, but the result was contested by Akufo-Addo, leading to a Supreme Court case which ultimately upheld Mahama’s victory.

2016-2020 Elections: Akufo-Addo won the presidency in 2016, defeating Mahama. His tenure focused on industrialization and economic development. In 2020, Akufo-Addo was re-elected in another tight race against Mahama.

3. Key Trends and Issues

Election Integrity: Elections in Ghana have generally been peaceful, though there have been instances of disputes and allegations of irregularities. The role of the Electoral Commission has been crucial in managing these disputes and maintaining credibility.

Political Polarization: Ghanaian politics has been dominated by the two major parties: the NPP and the NDC. This has led to a polarized political environment, with each election cycle reflecting sharp divides.

Economic Challenges: Throughout the Fourth Republic, economic issues such as inflation, unemployment, and public debt have been central to electoral debates. Each administration has faced the challenge of addressing these problems whilst maintaining political support.

Democratic Maturity: The Fourth Republic has seen Ghana develop a more mature democratic system, with regular transfers of power and increasing political engagement among citizens. Despite challenges, the democratic process has largely been stable and resilient.

4. Current Developments

2024 Election Context: The current political climate, characterized by economic difficulties and debates over governance, reflects ongoing concerns about leadership and national development. The dynamics between incumbent President Akufo-Addo, opposition leader John Dramani Mahama, and other candidates will be critical in shaping Ghana’s future.

The Fourth Republic elections have been a testament to Ghana’s commitment to democracy and political stability. As the country continues to navigate its challenges and opportunities, these elections provide a framework for understanding the ongoing evolution of its political history and landscape.

The Political Contest: John Dramani Mahama vs. the Perceived Economic Messiah

In the 2024 elections, the contest between former President John Dramani

Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the ruling New Patriotic Party's (NPP) candidate is likely to dominate the political discourse. Mahama, who has previously served as President, is seen as a dynamic and experienced leader with a deep understanding of Ghana's political terrain.

His campaign is expected to focus on reversing the perceived economic mismanagement of the current government and addressing social issues such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure development.

On the other hand, the NPP's candidate, often perceived as an economic messiah, has built a reputation as a champion of digital transformation. This image has been carefully cultivated through initiatives aimed at modernizing the economy, promoting digital literacy, and creating opportunities in the tech sector. However, this digital focus may not fully resonate with the broader electorate, particularly in the face of severe economic challenges that have gripped the nation.

The Peculiarities of the 2024 Elections

One of the most significant peculiarities of the 2024 elections is the context in which they are taking place. Ghana is currently facing tough economic challenges, marked by high inflation, debt overhang anchored by unprecedented debt exchange programme, and a skyrocketing cost of living. These economic difficulties have created widespread discontent, particularly amongst the youth, who make up a substantial portion of the electorate. The economic situation has made the promise of change a potent rallying cry for the opposition.

Social media has also emerged as a powerful tool in shaping public opinion, providing an alternative to the traditional mainstream media that has often been accused of bias. In contrast to previous elections, where mainstream media played a dominant role in information dissemination, social media platforms are now heightening the flow of information to the masses.

This shift has democratized access to information, allowing for greater scrutiny of political candidates and their platforms. However, it has also led to the spread of misinformation, making it crucial for voters to critically evaluate the information they consume.

Poll watchers have widely predicted an NDC victory in the upcoming elections, citing the economic discontent as a significant factor. However, there remains a lingering doubt about the impartiality of the Electoral Commission, the referee of the entire process. Concerns about the Commission's neutrality could lead to a contentious post-election period, especially if the results are close.

The Role of the Youth: What to Consider Before December 7

For the Ghanaian young voters, the 2024 elections represent a critical opportunity to shape the future of the country. As they consider their options, several factors should guide their decision-making process:

1. Economic Policies: With the economy in a precarious state, voters should critically evaluate the economic policies proposed by the candidates. This includes considering their plans for job creation, inflation control, and overall economic stability. A candidate's vision for agriculture development, which remains a backbone of the economy, should also be a key consideration.

2. Digital Transformation vs. Immediate Relief: While digital transformation is crucial for long-term economic growth, voters must weigh it against the need for immediate relief from the economic hardships they are currently facing. The balance between long-term digital initiatives and short-term economic solutions will be a critical determinant in this election.

3. Social Media Influence: With social media playing a prominent role in this election cycle, young voters should be mindful of the information they consume. Verifying the credibility of sources and being cautious of misinformation will be essential in making informed decisions.

4. Electoral Integrity: The perceived impartiality of the Electoral Commission and the integrity of the electoral process are crucial. Voters should be vigilant and demand transparency in the electoral process to ensure that their voices are accurately reflected in the final results.

5. Leadership Vision: Beyond economic policies, the vision of the candidates for sectors such as agriculture, economic development, and women-centred initiatives should be scrutinized. Leadership that prioritizes sustainable development and inclusivity could offer a pathway out of the current economic quagmire.

The Outcome: Landslide or Second Round Drama?

The outcome of the 2024 elections remains somehow uncertain. While many predict an NDC victory, the possibility of a second round cannot be ruled out, especially if the margin of victory is slim without the requisite percentage. President Akufo-Addo's controversial statement that he would not hand over to the person he defeated adds an element of unpredictability to the post-election period and rather unfortunate.

Moreover, the role of the media, particularly manipulative journalists who have lost their voices in recent times, could influence the narrative around the elections. As the political landscape evolves, the voices that dominate the airwaves and social media could play a decisive role in shaping public perception and, ultimately, the election results.

Recent polls and analyses by Fitch Solutions, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), and Global Info Analytics suggest that John Dramani Mahama, the flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is likely to win the 2024 general elections in Ghana.

These predictions are largely based on the prevailing economic challenges, such as declining living standards, limited job opportunities, and dissatisfaction with public services, which have eroded support for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).

Fitch Solutions projects that the NPP may struggle to retain power, especially in key swing regions where Mahama is predicted to secure nearly 48% of the vote compared to Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia's 29%. The EIU also echoes this sentiment, predicting an NDC victory both in the presidential and parliamentary elections, albeit with a small majority in parliament. Additionally, Global Info Analytics polling indicates that Mahama leads in 55 out of 82 constituencies surveyed, with strong support in regions like Volta and Northern Ghana.

These projections highlight the significant challenges facing the NPP as it campaigns to "Break the 8," with many voters holding the government accountable for the current economic difficulties.

Yes, the disappointment of floating voters could indeed be a significant factor contributing to a tilt towards the NDC in the upcoming elections in Ghana. Floating voters, who are not strongly aligned with any particular party, often make their decisions based on the current state of affairs, such as economic conditions, governance, and the perceived performance of the ruling party.

In recent times, the economic challenges facing Ghana, including high inflation, the rising cost of living, and widespread dissatisfaction with government policies, might push these voters to seek change. If the ruling party (NPP) is perceived as failing to address these issues effectively, floating voters could be more inclined to support the opposition (NDC) in hopes of a different approach.

Additionally, if the NDC is able to present itself as a viable alternative with a strong and compelling vision for the future as contained in their 24-Hour Economy Policy which is touted as the game changer, this could further sway floating voters in their favour. The use of social media, as opposed to mainstream media, could also play a role in shaping the perceptions of these voters, especially if they feel that mainstream narratives do not align with their experiences.

Given these factors, the disappointment of floating voters with the current administration could indeed be a key reason for a potential shift towards the NDC in the 2024 elections. The New Patriotic Party (NPP)'s slogan "Breaking the 8" refers to their ambition to win a third consecutive term in Ghana's Fourth Republic.

Since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1992, no political party has won three consecutive terms. The pattern has alternated between the NPP and the National Democratic Congress (NDC), with each party typically serving two terms before being voted out.

Key Factors to Consider:

1. Economic Performance: The economic situation in Ghana, marked by high inflation, the high cost of living, and recent financial struggles, has significantly impacted public perception. Economic hardships often lead to voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent party, which could challenge the NPP's goal. The truth of the matter is that no business can succeed in an environment with over 54% month-on-month inflation.

2. Leadership and Candidate Appeal: The choice of a presidential candidate is crucial. The NPP will need a candidate with broad appeal, who can present a fresh and convincing vision but that seems belated now. Their main contender, the NDC's John Dramani Mahama, is a former president with significant name recognition and experience, making the race even more competitive.

3. Electoral Dynamics: The role of the Electoral Commission (EC) and the credibility of the election process are crucial. Any perception of bias or unfairness could lead to unrest and challenge the legitimacy of the results, making it harder to "Break the 8."

4. Social Media vs. Mainstream Media: The rise of social media has changed the dynamics of political campaigns. Social media can amplify issues, mobilize voters, and sway public opinion, sometimes in ways that are unpredictable. Both parties will need to effectively leverage this platform whilst countering any misinformation.

5. Historical Precedent: No party has "broken the 8" in Ghana's Fourth Republic, meaning that the NPP will need to overcome historical trends. Voters may seek change after two terms, especially if they perceive the ruling party as having failed to deliver on its promises as the case.

6. Strategic Vision: The NPP's ability to present a coherent and visionary plan, particularly in areas like agriculture, economic development, and women-centred policies, could be a determining factor. Voters are likely to respond to clear, actionable plans that address their immediate concerns.

Can the NPP Genuinely Break the 8?

It's possible, but highly challenging, indeed the answer is emphatic NO. The economic environment, leadership choices, campaign strategy, and public perception will all play critical roles.

Whilst the NPP has some advantages, such as incumbency and a record of governance, they face significant hurdles, particularly as the electorate is disillusioned with the current state of the economy. The 2024 elections could be closely contested and may even require a second round if neither party secures a decisive victory in the first round.

The perceived state capture of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) government in Ghana Agyapadie dozier has become a significant concern as the country approaches the 2024 general elections. State capture refers to a situation where private interests significantly influence a state's decision-making processes to the extent that public policies and resources are redirected to benefit these interests, often at the expense of the broader population.

Perceived State Capture of the NPP Government:

1. Concentration of Power: The NPP government has faced allegations of concentrating power within a small group of elites closely aligned with the party. This centralization of power has raised concerns about the erosion of democratic institutions and checks and balances, with decisions being made to benefit a select few rather than the entire populace.

2. Influence of Business Interests: There are perceptions that certain business interests, particularly those linked to influential members of the NPP, have gained undue influence over government policies. This has led to accusations that contracts and state resources are being funnelled to businesses that support the ruling party, undermining fair competition and transparency.

3. Judiciary and Law Enforcement: There have been concerns about the independence of the judiciary and law enforcement agencies, with accusations that these institutions are being used to protect the interests of the ruling party and its allies. This perceived manipulation of justice has contributed to a sense of injustice and distrust among the public.

4. Economic Inequality: The consequences of perceived state capture have exacerbated economic inequality in Ghana. While some individuals and businesses have prospered, the majority of the population has faced worsening economic conditions, including high inflation, unemployment, and a rising cost of living. This economic disparity is fueling dissatisfaction with the government.

Why is the NPP Candidate still Hopeful?

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the Vice President of Ghana and a prominent candidate in the 2024 presidential elections, remains hopeful about winning for several reasons:

1. Economic Vision: Bawumia has a reputation for being an economic expert with a vision for transforming Ghana's economy. His focus on digitalization, economic reforms, and infrastructure development may appeal to voters who prioritize economic growth and stability. Although not much has been seen from his economic prowess in the last 8 years or so.

2. Support from the NPP: As the Vice President of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), Bawumia enjoys strong support from the party machinery and its loyal base. The NPP's organizational strength and resources can be significant assets during the election campaign.

3. Incumbency Advantage: Bawumia’s role as Vice President provides him with visibility and a platform to highlight his achievements and the government’s progress in various sectors. This incumbency advantage often plays a crucial role in elections. Notwithstanding dissociating himself from his government’s failures and high taxes, he fully touts the few achievements as his initiative. That sounds ironic in my thinking.

What can not be discounted in the political dynamics of the NPP is the breakaway of a key political figure in the person of Alan Kyeremanteng, a major third-party disadvantage.

4. Campaign Strategy: Effective campaign strategies, including leveraging social media and engaging with grassroots voters, can significantly boost a candidate’s chances. Bawumia’s team is likely working on targeted campaigns to address specific voter concerns and promote his candidacy.

5. Opposition Dynamics: The strength and cohesion of some small opposition parties who have held hands with the NPP, can impact Bawumia’s prospects. If the opposition is fragmented or facing internal challenges, it may increase his hope that his chances of winning are high.

6. Public Perception and Media Coverage: Positive media coverage and public perception of Bawumia’s leadership and policies can contribute to his optimism. His ability to present a compelling vision for Ghana’s future can resonate with voters. Despite these factors, the outcome will ultimately depend on various dynamics, including voter sentiment, campaign effectiveness, and the political landscape leading up to the election and of course the sincerity and chastity of the electoral process.

Consequences of The Perceived State Capture for the 2024 Election:

1. Erosion of Trust: The perceived state capture has led to a significant erosion of trust for the NPP as a political party. Voters may feel that their interests are not being adequately represented, which could lead to a shift in support away from the NPP in favour of opposition parties like the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

2. Voter Mobilization: The growing discontent with the government may lead to higher voter turnout, for the opposition constituencies and low turnout for the stronghold of the ruling party, especially among those who feel marginalized by the current administration. The NDC and other opposition parties are likely to capitalize on this sentiment, emphasizing themes of fairness, justice, and inclusivity in their campaigns.

3. Focus on Corruption: Corruption and state capture are expected to be central themes in the election campaign. Opposition parties will likely highlight these issues to undermine the NPP's credibility and rally support for change. The NPP, on the other hand, will need to address these perceptions if they are truly not real and demonstrate a commitment to transparency and accountability to retain voter confidence.

4. Potential for Political Instability: If the perception of state capture persists and is not adequately addressed, it could lead to political instability. Public protests, legal challenges, and a contested election outcome are possible scenarios if the electorate feels that the election process is not free or fair.

In summary, the perceived state capture of the NPP government could significantly impact the outcome of the 2024 elections in Ghana. The opposition is likely to exploit these perceptions to challenge the NPP's hold on power, while the NPP will need to work hard to restore public trust and prove its commitment to good governance.

Conclusion

The 2024 elections in Ghana are set to be one of the most consequential in the country's history. With a challenging economic backdrop, the rise of social media as a dominant force, and concerns about electoral integrity, the stakes are higher than ever.

For young voters, this election represents a chance to demand meaningful change and chart a course for the future that addresses their immediate needs while laying the groundwork for sustainable development. The decisions made on December 7 will reverberate for years to come, making it imperative for every voter to approach the polls with careful consideration and informed judgment.