Attribution Requires Evidence: Lessons from the GoldBod debate

Public conversations in Ghana often fall into a familiar pattern: once a new institution is created, any positive development that follows is immediately credited to it. The recent debate over the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) is a good reminder of why we should be careful with such attributions.

The GoldBod was established by Act 1140 in May 2025 with sweeping authority to buy, sell, value, and export gold. Because Ghana’s official gold reserves have been rising, some commentators have argued that the new institution is responsible for this increase. But a closer look at the data suggests that this conclusion is premature.

Bank of Ghana records show that gold reserves have been increasing steadily since mid-2023, long before the GoldBod existed. Reserves rose from about 9 tonnes in May 2023 to more than 38 tonnes by late 2025. To determine whether the creation of the GoldBod changed this pre-existing trend, I carried out a set of standard statistical checks that economists use to test for shifts in trends.

In simple terms, these tests ask:

Did something noticeably change in the pattern of gold accumulation right after May 2025?

The answer is no.

One test looked for a sudden break or jump in the trend around the GoldBod’s launch. None was found. Another checked whether the pace of gold accumulation increased meaningfully after May 2025. Although the monthly increase after May 2025 is numerically larger than before, the difference is not strong enough statistically to conclude that the GoldBod caused it. Finally, a look at 6-month and 12-month moving averages shows a smooth, continuous rise that began well before the GoldBod and continues afterward without any noticeable change in slope.

Taken together, these results show that while Ghana’s gold reserves are indeed rising, there is no evidence that the GoldBod caused the shift. The trend was already in motion.

This does not diminish the GoldBod’s potential importance, but it is a reminder that correlation is not causation. Sound policy debate requires careful analysis, not assumptions based solely on timing.