Breaking the eight: Assessing Ghana using the case of Nigeria

Ghana and Nigeria have a lot in common since time immemorial. The reason many regard Nigeria as the ‘Big Brother’ of Ghana, despite the existence of some elements of rivalry over such serious matters as football and commerce, as well as such trivialities as to who owns the bragging right to prepare the most delicious jollof. Historically too, the two countries shared the same interests in their struggle for self-government from Britain, their colonial masters.

In the later part of the 1940s, Ghana and Nigeria, two among the four British colonial territories in Sub-Saharan Africa, spearheaded the independence struggle which saw many others within and outside the sub-region fired up to join the noble course of the independence struggle.

Consequently, Ghana succeeded in gaining her freedom on March 6, 1957, while Nigeria followed suit on October 1, 1960. These two nations have since been considered the bastion of democracy and hope for the Continent of Africa. This assertion was ably captured by the Founding Father of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, in his book, “From Third World to First World Country”.

This confidence, which took many years of sacrifice to build, was however dashed when Ghana woke up to the senseless overthrow of her first democratic regime on February 24, 1966. As if it were the order of the era, Nnamdi Benjamin Azikiwe, the First President of Nigeria also suffered a similar fate in January 1966.

In all, Nigeria and Ghana experienced five coup d’etats.

These unfortunate incidents, which were fully contrived and cruelly executed by heartless and callous agents of foreign metropolitan imperialism, can best be termed the “Darkness before the dawn” since both countries now enjoy uninterrupted republican constitutions and multi-party democracy. The Ghanaian 4th Republic started in 1992 while that of Nigeria started in 1999. Another similarity is that the two states belong to the Commonwealth of Nations with English being their official language.

The people of Nigeria had a sad experience of losing their seating president Umaru Musa Yar’adua, who was succeeded by Goodluck Jonathan. A similar unfortunate incident occurred in Ghana with the passing of Prof. J.E.A. Mills whose successor was John Mahama.

It is against these background of events that no political observer can be entirely faulted for drawing some conclusions that what happens in Nigeria has some reflections on what transpires in Ghana or vice versa.

However, objectively, these generalizations cannot always be the case. Admittedly, Ghana and Nigeria have some thread of similarities, but there are some sharp differences too. Permit me to use the two major political parties in Nigeria and Ghana for my analysis.

In Ghana, the two major political parties are the NPP and the NDC. Since the inception of the 4th Republic in January 1993, they both have alternated political power after eight (8) years or two terms. The NDC was in power for eight years and handed over to the NPP. The NDC took over from the NPP for another eight years and handed over to the NPP. There appears to be an established eight-year cycle of governance.

In Nigeria, the story is different since they began to experiment with multi-party democracy. In 1999, General Obasanjo won the elections on the ticket of the PDP. The PDP stayed in power for eight (8) years. Another election was held in 2007 which was again won by PDP under President Ya’rdua. The 2011 elections was won again by Goodluck Jonathan on the ticket of the PDP. This shows that in Nigeria, the PDP ruled continuously for sixteen(16) years before the APC won the elections in 2015 under the leadership of President Buhari. The APC was able to do eight (8) years under Buhari and again won their recent elections under the leadership of Bola Tinubu. In Nigeria, the political ethos is not about breaking the eight (8), rather it is about breaking the sixteen (16) years debt of the PDP by the APC.

From these electoral occurrences in the two countries, one cannot conclude with certainty that the APC has broken any established eight in Nigeria and that the NPP in Ghana will also repeat the same.

Ghanaians used to do draw inferences from the outcome of their elections and what happens at the polls between the Republicans and the Democrats in the US. However, the outcome of the recently held 2020 Elections in the US and Ghana shows that holding to that permutation as an influence on the outcome of elections in Ghana does not have legs to stand on. It is trite knowledge that domestic issues in a country determine the outcome of elections at the polls and not necessarily what happens in a different country that is probably thousands of nautical miles away. Donald Trump could not do a second successive term but Nana Addo won his second term bid. This is a good political lesson.

Another difference between the Nigerian political terrain and that of Ghana is the fact that Goodluck Jonathan did not contest the presidential race after he lost his bid to win the 2015 elections on the ticket of the PDP. In Ghana, the NDC’s John Mahama went ahead to contest the 2020 elections and closed the gap between himself and Nana Addo having lost in 2016.

Indeed the APC is a recently formed political party, that is in 2013, which won the Nigerian General Elections in 2015 under Buhari, unlike the UP tradition which has been in existence since the 1960s under Busia and only transmogrified into the NPP under the 4th Republic, participating in every election under the current multi-party dispensation. The NPP under Kuffour won the elections between 2000-2008 and Nana Addo between 2016-2024. This means within the 4th Republican experiment, the NPP might have experienced governance for 16 years and the APC is about doing twelve (12) years under Buhari and Tinubu.

The APC in Nigeria has somewhat broken the eight but will that be the fate of the NPP in Ghana during the 2024 elections?

The NPP will find some political consolation in the APC’s recent electoral victory as an assurance of winning the 2024 Elections. However, that can only be a psychological boost that cannot be a guarantee for the Elephant fraternity since the political dynamics that favoured the APC in Nigeria do not in any way apply to the NPP in Ghana.

The APC benefited significantly from the internal and external rifts among the PDP fold. The former running mate to Atiku, Peter Obi, broke away to form the Labour Party. This has largely fragmented the support base of the largest opposition party, the PDP. In Ghana, Prof. Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, the running mate to John Mahama in the 2020 elections, does not have any brake away faction, nor is there a formidable third force in Ghana that will draw votes from the NDC’s fold. The situation in Nigeria, which gave the APC 12 years in government, does not apply to the current political situation in Ghana.

Another difference between the major opposition party in Ghana, the NDC, and the PDP in Nigeria is that in the case of Nigeria, the G5 led by Governor Wike, and other members such as Governor Samuel Ortom (Benue), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and their Abia State counterpart, Okezie Ikpeazu, refused to endorse the candidature of former Vice President, Atiku. These governors threw their support to the Labour Party and the APC, which politically cost the Atiku-led PDP gravely.

The situation is not the same in Ghana within the NDC. In Ghana, the MPs in the NDC declared their unflinching support for John Mahama. This demonstrates that the NDC leadership in Parliament is united around one candidate, unlike the 98 NPP MPs who defied the odds and broke their ranks, called a press conference, and openly demanded the sacking of the Finance Minister who happens to be the President’s direct cousin and the brake away of Hon. Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen a former trade minister under president Nana Addo to contest the 2024 presidential elections as an independent candidate.

This is another difference between the Nigerian current political situation and that of Ghana. Like the G5 which was against the Atiku-led PDP, in Ghana, we have 98 MPs who disagreed with the economic performance of the country under Ken Ofori-Atta as the Finance Minister. These MPs fear the economic outlook of the country will affect their fortunes at the polls, hence the need to find another handler that will turn the economy around. In addition, the former trade minister does not see the current NPP under President Nana Addo as democratic enough leading to his breakaway.

Another difference between the current political situation of the two countries is that the Nigerian elections were predominantly a contest of religion and tribe. The Christian Association held the view that they would not tolerate a Muslim-Muslim ticket in Nigeria. Because of this pressure, the LP had a Christian flagbearer and a Muslim running mate, with the PDP having a Muslim candidate and a Christian running mate.

Looking at the religious groupings in Nigeria, the Muslims form the majority, especially in Northern Nigeria. Bola Tinubu, though a Muslim from the South, decided to go for another Muslim from the North, thus presenting a Muslim-Muslim ticket to consolidate the APC’s hold of Muslims in Northern Nigeria, which weakened the influence of Atiku from Northern Nigeria.

This was not the first time Nigeria produced a Muslim-Muslim ticket to win the Presidency. It did happen for the first time in 1993. Tinubu knew he was a Muslim from the South, hence his great influence in the South. It is therefore not surprising that he is referred to as the ‘Godfather of Lagos State’. To consolidate the North, he chose a Muslim candidate from Northern Nigeria, thereby reducing the influence of Atiku from the North.

Ghana, on the other hand, is a circular state with Christians in the majority. Hence if the NPP wants to do a religious politics as akin to what the APC did in the Nigerian elections, they will be the biggest losers.

Since the inception of the 4th Republic, Muslims never had the chance of becoming president because they are actually in the minority. If the NPP wants to behave like the APC who presented a Muslim-Muslim ticket and won the elections, a similar strategy by the NPP will be their Waterloo in Ghana.

The NPP is currently in a dilemma because the choice of Dr. Bawumia who happens to be a Muslim as flagbearer put the Party in a very precarious situation because the Muslims are in the minority unlike the Christians who are in the majority of Ghana hence the NPP is highly likely to go for a Christian running mate for the 2024 presidential elections.

Another difference between the APC Candidate, Bola Tinubu, and the NPP is that Tinubu wasn’t a minister or vice president under Buhari, neither was he a member of the economic management team under Buhari unlike Dr. Bawumia and Alan Kyerematen who served as vice president and a trade minister respectively under Nana Addo. Unlike Bola Tinubu who wasn’t smeared with the sins of Buhari, Alan Kyerematen and Alhaji Bawumia will carry the buggages of Nana Addo into the 2024 elections.

There is some other difference between Nigerian elections and those of Ghana which is worthy of note. In fact, in Nigeria, Obasanjo took a first shot at the Presidency and won, same as Yaradua, Goodluck Jonathan, Buhari, and Tinubu. The UP tradition, now the NPP, has no record of winning at its first attempt. It didn’t happen in the case of Prof. Adu Boahen, neither did it in the case of John Kuffour or Nana Addo. It was rather the NDC that had the experience of winning political power at a first shot under Jerry John Rawlings and also in 2012 under John Mahama.

From the above observations, the APC has attempted and probably trying to break the PDP’s record of sixteen (16) years established in Nigeria. That may not happen in Ghana where the NPP appears to be oblivious of their gross failure and disappointment in running the country but are busily touting the break-the-eight mantra. Ghanaians, who are the best judges of their standard of living, will never make the mistake of opting again for a regime that promised heaven but currently delivering hell with reckless abandon.