Ghana performing better with coronavirus management, mathematical facts, figures and analysis

Coronavirus New21 File Photo

Wed, 1 Jul 2020 Source: Nana Kwadwo Akwaa

COVID-19 is defined as an ailment caused by a novel virus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which was earlier known as 2019-nCoV. The acronym COVID-19 was derived from “Coronavirus Disease 2019”.

COVID-19 was first identified amid an outbreak of respiratory illness cases in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. Though the first case of the ailment was reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO) on December 31, 2019, scientists have determined the virus could have started spreading from person to person as early as late November, 2019. On January 30, 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 outbreak a global health emergency, and on March 11, 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic.

The first case of COVID-19 outside China was reported in Thailand in 13 January, 2020, and its first case in Africa was recorded in Egypt on 14 February, 2020. Ghana received her first share of the ailment on 12 March, 2020.

Ever since the virus sprang up, Ghana has been very apt with the implementation and the strict adherence to policies that would help curtail the spread of the virus in the country. Such safety protocols and measures have ranged from travel restrictions, partial lockdown of specific sectors, aggressive enhanced contact tracing, testing, quarantine/isolation and treatment, social and physical distancing, washing of hands, use of masks and sanitizers, employment of innovations like digitalization and drones, and others. This has as a result produced splendid results as against the extend of damage scientists had scientifically predicted for the country. Such good practices and fruitfulness is what eventually got United Kingdom (UK) praising Ghana for her use of innovative methods in the fight against the pandemic during a presentation of the plans by Ghanaian government in dealing with the pandemic during a WHO virtual meeting. Moreover, as a result of this splendid achievement so far, which has been borne out of the way Ghana has managed the virus in the country, has gotten many countries across the world such as United States of America (USA), UK and others also adopting some of these result oriented measures that is being employed by Ghana.

Further more, to corroborate the above COVID-19 success mentions of Ghana government, below are some facts, figures and analysis explicitly showcasing the extend of the impact of the measures and protocols employed by Ghana.

Rate of Percentage Change of Ghana’s Coronavirus Confirmed Cases (Year: 2020)

Date Confirmed Cases 12 Mar- 2 22 Mar- 21 (950.00% Increase) 02 Apr- 204 (871.43% Increase) 12 Apr- 566 (177.45% Increase) 22 Apr- 1,154 (103.89% Increase) 30 Apr- 2,074 (79.72% Increase) 10 May - 4,700 (126.62% Increase) 20 May- 6,096 (29.70% Increase) 30 May- 7,768 (27.43% Increase) 09 Jun- 9,910 (27.57% Increase) 19 Jun- 13,717 (38.42% increase)

Between 26 Apr (1,550) and 27 Jun (15,834), the rate of percentage change with respect to confirmed cases is 921.55% increase.

With a ten (10) days interval from the date Ghana recorded her first case till now, it can be observed from the data above that, there has been a sharp diminishing rate of increase, and as a result, it proves a positive impact of the employed measures. Note, Ghana started off with a rate of change of 950.00% increase as at 22 March but has sharply declined to 38.42% as at 19 June. Despite the diminishing rate of the rate of increase has reduced per a comparison of the figures between 20 May and 19 June with the figures between 12 March and 10 May, the general diminishing rate of the rate of increase between the respective periods is still very significant.

Rate of Percentage Change of Ghana’s COVID-19 Recoveries (Year : 2020)

Date Recoveries 26 Apr- 155 7 May- 303 (95.48% Increase) 15 May- 1,460 (381.85% Increase) 25 May- 1,998 (36.85% Increase) 6 Jun- 3,547 (77.53% Increase) 16 Jun- 4,326 (21.96% Increase) 27 Jun- 11,755 (171.73% increase)

Between 26 April and 27 Jun, the rate of percentage change with respect to recoveries is 7,483.87% increase

From the data above, the rate of increase of recoveries has a curve-like (up and down) look, but a general observation of the entire data shows the rise between the respective periods to be very significant.

Rate of Percentage Change of Ghana’s COVID-19 Deaths (Year : 2020)

Date Deaths 26 Apr- 11 7 May- 18 (63.64% Increase) 15 May- 28 (55.56% Increase) 25 May- 32 (14.29% Increase) 6 Jun- 44 (37.50% Increase) 16 Jun- 58 (31.82% Increase) 27 Jun- 103 (77.59% increase)

Between 26 April and 27 Jun, the rate of percentage change with respect to deaths is 836.36% increase

From the data above, the rate of increase of deaths has a curve-like (up and down) look, but a general observation of the entire data shows a general rise which needs an urgent work on to aid a slow of its rate of increase.

Further more, with a comparison of the rate of increases of confirmed cases, recoveries and deaths between 26 April and 27 June, of which that of confirmed cases is 921.55%, recoveries is 7,483.87% and that of death is 836.36%. It can be realised that that of recoveries far exceed those of deaths and confirmed cases respectively by about eight (8) times, which is a very significant development, and a very huge achievement.

Coronavirus Cases in Ghana According to Dates (Year: 2020)

19 April: 68,591 tests; 1,042 confirmed cases Cases per Tests: 1.52%

26 April: 100,622 tests; 1,550 confirmed cases; 155 recoveries; 11 deaths Cases per Tests: 1.54% Recoveries per Cases: 10.00% Deaths per Cases: 0.71%

7 May: 137,924 tests; 3,091 confirmed cases; 303 recoveries; 18 deaths Cases per Tests: 2.24% Recoveries per Cases: 9.80% Deaths per Cases: 0.58%

10 May: 160,501 tests; 4,700 confirmed cases; 494 recoveries; 22 deaths Cases per Tests: 2.93% Recoveries per Cases: 10.51% Deaths per Cases: 0.47%

15 May: 161,00 tests; 5,638 confirmed cases; 1,460 recoveries; 28 deaths Cases per Tests: 3.50% Recoveries per Cases: 26.04% Deaths per Cases: 0.50%

20 May: 6,096 confirmed cases; 1773 recoveries; 31 deaths Recoveries per Cases: 29.08% Deaths per Cases: 0.51%

25 May: 194,763 tests; 6,683 confirmed cases; 1,998 recoveries; 32 deaths Cases per Tests: 3.43% Recoveries per Cases: 29.90% Deaths per Cases: 0.48%

1 June: 218,425 tests; 8,070 confirmed cases; 494 recoveries; 36 deaths Cases per Tests: 3.69% Recoveries per Cases: 36.52% Deaths per Cases: 0.45%

6 June: 9,462 confirmed cases; 3,547 recoveries; 44 deaths Recoveries per Cases: 37.49% Deaths per Cases: 0.47%

12 June: 242,218 tests; 10,856 confirmed cases; 3,921 recoveries; 48 deaths Cases per Tests: 4.48% Recoveries per Cases: 36.12% Deaths per Cases: 0.44%

17 June: 12,590 confirmed cases; 4,410 recoveries; 66 deaths Recoveries per Cases: 35.03% Deaths per Cases: 0.52%

22 June: 14,154 confirmed cases; 10,473 recoveries; 85 deaths Recoveries per Cases: 73.99% Deaths per Cases: 0.60%

27 June: 288,465 tests; 15,834 confirmed cases; 11,755 recoveries; 103 deaths Cases per Tests: 5.49% Recoveries per Cases: 74.24% Deaths per Cases: 0.65%

Between April 19 and June 27, there has been some mixed results with a major being positive. Note, despite the Cases per Tests have increased from 1.52% to 5.49%, it is also worthy to note that Recoveries per Cases have increased from 10.00% to 74.24% and also Deaths per Cases have reduced from 0.71% to 0.62%, and as a result signifies very positive strides by the nation.

African Countries and their Respective percentage of Coronavirus Tests Per Population as of 29 June, 2020

1.South Africa - 1,567,084 (Popn: 59,301,892) Test per Population : 2.64%

2.Ghana - 288,465 (Popn: 31,062,453) Test per Population : 0.93%

3.Egypt - 135,000 (Popn: 102,305,264) Test per Population : 0.13%

4.Mauritius - 171,792 (Popn: 1,271,755) Test per Population : 13.51%

5.Morocco - 650,719 (Popn: 36,905,559) Test per Population : 1.76%

6.Uganda - 170,789 (Popn: 45,705,216) Test per Population : 0.37%

7.Rwanda - 137,751 (Popn: 12,946,351) Test per Population : 1.06%

8.Ethiopia - 246,911 (Popn: 114,911,577) 0.21%

9.Tunisia - 69,137 (Popn: 11,817,294) Test per Population : 0.59%

10.Kenya - 165,196 (Popn: 53,751,415) Test per Population : 0.31%

11.Nigeria - 130,164 (Popn: 206,060,232) Test per Population : 0.06%

From the data above, it puts Ghana among countries in Africa which have engaged in a high number of massive testing per population. An attestation to a satisfaction of one of the urgencies in the COVID-19 fight, and one of the reasons to why Ghana is achieving desired results.

List of some African Countries with their respective Coronavirus Confirmed Cases, Recoveries and Deaths as at 28 June, 2020

South Africa: 138,134 Cases; 68,925 Recoveries; 2,456 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 49.90% % of Death per Cases: 1.78%

Ghana: 16,742 Cases; 12,720 Recoveries; 112 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 75.98% % of Death per Cases: 0.67%

Egypt: 65,188 Cases; 17,539 Recoveries; 2,789 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 26.91% % of Death per Cases: 4.28%

Mauritius: 341 Cases; 326 Recoveries; 10 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 95.60% % of Death per Cases: 2.93%

Morocco: 12,052 Cases; 8,740 Recoveries; 221 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 72.52% % of Death per Cases: 1.83%

Uganda: 859 Cases; 794 Recoveries; 0 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 92.43% % of Death per Cases: 0.00%

Rwanda: 900 Cases; 443 Recoveries; 2 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 49.22% % of Death per Cases: 0.22%

Ethiopia: 5,689 Cases; 2,132 Recoveries; 98 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 37.48% % of Death per Cases: 1.72%

Tunisia: 1,169 Cases; 1,029 Recoveries; 50 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 88.02% % of Death per Cases: 4.28%

Kenya: 6,070 Cases; 1,971 Recoveries; 143 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 32.47% % of Death per Cases: 2.36%

Algeria: 13,273 Cases; 9,371 Recoveries; 897 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 70.60% % of Death per Cases: 6.76%

Nigeria: 24,077 Cases; 8,625 Recoveries; 558 Deaths % of Recoveries per Cases: 35.82% % of Death per Cases: 2.32%

From the data above, with a comparison of figures of Ghana to that of listed African countries, it can be observed that Ghana is among the countries with the most Recoveries per Confirmed Cases and the least Deaths per Confirmed Cases, an achievement which is highly remarkable.

In furtherance, from the entire analysis above, it can be established that the Ghana government has managed the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country very meticulously and splendidly, which has eventually led to the reduction of the supposed would have been danger and damage of the virus on the country’s citizens.

More over, the Year 2020 Cerebrospinal Meningitis (CSM) outbreak in Ghana which is an annual occurrence has so far claimed forty-eight (48) lives representing 10.69% out of the four hundred and forty-nine (449) recorded cases in the Upper East, Upper West, Northern and Savanna regions. Transmission of CSM is very similar to that COVID-19, it is from person-to-person, and may be through droplets of respiratory or throat secretions of infected persons or those who carry the pathogen. Again, during the cholera outbreak in Ghana between April and October, 2014, out of twenty four thousand, six hundred and forty-eight (24,648) recorded cases, two hundred and three (203) representing 0.82% died.

Despite the Death per Cases of COVID-19 is lower than that of the two cited above, yet their higher Death per Cases could not necessitate a lock or partial lock down of the entire or specific parts of country for the periods they occurred, it would therefore be in order for the Government of Ghana to further open up the country through a loosen of some of the existing restrictions such as closure of pubs and drinking spots, restrictions on the number of attendants for religious activities, occasions, funerals and weddings, and others to aid an enhancement of a further growth and promotion of the country’s economic activities.

Citizens of the nation would also be encouraged to continue to strictly adhere to the directives of the government to avoid an escalation of the virus in the country.

Hhhmm, May God be praised always

Email of author: (Kingsleyakwaa@yahoo.com)

Columnist: Nana Kwadwo Akwaa
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