NPP flag
The 2024 elections will be fiercely contested between the NDC and the NPP, with several key dynamics influencing the outcome. Let's begin by examining the situation from the NPP's perspective. The New Patriotic Party enters this election with memories of their narrow loss to the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in 2008 still fresh.
That defeat, especially by such a slim margin, remains a sore point for the party. Although the NPP lost the parliamentary majority that year, a victory in the presidential race could have given them a psychological edge over the NDC and possibly broken the traditional eight-year power cycle that has characterized Ghanaian politics.
Since 2008, internal challenges within the NPP have significantly impacted the party, particularly following the 2007 primaries, where 17 prominent members vied for the flagbearer position. The ensuing internal discord contributed to the party's defeat in two consecutive elections. It wasn't until Nana Addo's consistent campaigning and policy focus that the NPP managed to regain the trust of Ghanaians, culminating in the NDC's exit in 2016.
Despite facing economic difficulties that have burdened the population, the NPP's strategy to "break the eight" in 2024 is carefully crafted. Initially, during the off-campaign season, the political atmosphere seemed unfavourable for the NPP, as it was unclear whether Ghanaians were disillusioned with them. However, as the election campaign kicked off, it became evident that the NPP might still have a chance.
The NPP's candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, is relatively young, and along with his running mate, NAPO, they present a formidable challenge to the NDC. Bawumia's appeal in the northern regions could swing votes in favour of the NPP, while NAPO could secure a strong performance in the Ashanti Region. However, the critical question remains: "What makes Ghanaians believe the NPP deserves another term?"
On the other side, the NDC, led by John Mahama, faces an uphill battle in 2024. Mahama has lost two consecutive elections with a combined margin of 1.5 million votes in 2016 and 2020. The NDC's primary strategy has been to capitalize on the economic hardships facing Ghanaians, urging voters to reject the NPP. Additionally, they have consistently targeted Bawumia's character at every opportunity. In Parliament, the NDC has made efforts to resist the NPP, successfully blocking certain statutory deals and transactions.
Mahama, however, appears to have been grappling with health issues since 2020, which his party has tried to keep out of the public eye. Moreover, his running mate, a 72-year-old woman, presents challenges in terms of leading a vigorous campaign. Their core policy, a "24-hour economy," has received mixed reactions from the public, with concerns about its feasibility and realism. Even within the NDC, there seems to be uncertainty about how to implement this policy. The inconsistency in the NDC's messaging has also tarnished its credibility, with Mahama contradicting himself on various platforms.
The NDC is attempting to win over the youth, but the NPP's Free SHS policy has made it difficult for them to gain traction. In the Volta Region, traditionally an NDC stronghold, there is a growing sense of enlightenment among voters. The NPP managed to secure 14% of the vote there in the last election, and with Bawumia's non-Akan background, they could increase their share to 20% or more.
Given these factors, it is evident that the NDC faces significant challenges in the 2024 elections. The regional dynamics and numerical data do not favour them. Their "Ghana is Hard" campaign is failing to resonate with ordinary Ghanaians, who are more appreciative of Nana Addo's Free SHS policy than Mahama's proposed review. Bawumia has become increasingly popular, with a consistent, issue-focused campaign that avoids insults and attacks. He has outlined 72 bold solutions to move Ghana forward, while the NDC's call to "reset" Ghana is seen by many as a step backward, potentially hindering the country's development.
