Have we signed away billions in Truedare AI GRA Customs deal?

In my first write-up on the Truedare Publican Artificial Intelligence (AI) Customs deal, I outlined the one dozen (12) problems in the agreement, mainly concerning the secrecy surrounding its most important terms.

This second write-up seeks to analyze the potential billions of Ghana Cedis we may have signed away to the people behind this “scheme” under the pretext of “no cost to government.”

Let us look at the numbers calmly, logically, and honestly.

1. Ghana’s Customs Division has, over the last three years, generated an average of about GH₵31 billion annually, without this Artificial Intelligence (AI) system.

2. We are now told that the Truedare AI system could increase revenue by 40% to 45%. Let us take the upper bound of 45%. That implies an additional GH₵14 billion every year.

3. So far, so good. All of us want improved revenue. But this is where the real issue begins.

4. In similar arrangements across the world, where a private company provides such a system with “no upfront cost” to government, that company is typically paid through a share of the additional revenue generated, often between 10% and 20%. Let us again take the upper bound of 20%.

5. Calculating 20% of GH₵14 billion gives us GH₵2.8 billion every single year to be paid to Truedare and the people behind it. Let that sink in.

6. Over a modest period of 5 years, Ghana could be paying GH₵14 billion to the people behind this agreement.

7. If this Truedare Publican AI Customs systems contract has been signed for 10 years, Ghana could pay out GH₵28 billion.

8. Now ask yourself some simple questions:

a. Have we seen any document that confirms or denies this payment structure?

b. Do we know the exact percentage agreed? This is where matters become murky because the secrecy surrounding these critical financial terms means the percentage share could even be more than the 20% used in this analysis. Else, why keep this secret from Ghanaians?

c. Do we know the tenure of this contract? The answer, unfortunately, is no. And that is where the risk lies. What if this agreement has been signed for 20 or 25 years?

9. The contract may have been approved by Parliament, but the critical financial terms of the agreement are not publicly disclosed in full. That is the real issue here, not approval alone, but full transparency on the payment structure, revenue-sharing model, and fiscal exposure to Ghana.

10. So what we have here is not just a policy decision. It is a potential fiscal blind spot.

11. As someone with appreciable expertise in finance discipline and practice, I can say with clarity that the biggest risks in financial dealings are not always in what is declared and known, but in what is hidden and undisclosed.

12. Let me also be clear that I am not arguing against technology and digitalisation, else I would not be an ardent follower of Dr Bawumia. Neither am I arguing against improving our revenues. This is an argument for protecting Ghana’s money and for using local capacity to develop such systems so we do not pay out huge sums to schemers for what Ghanaian expertise can help build.

13. Indeed, if a percentage of Ghana’s incremental revenue is committed to a private entity under undisclosed terms, then Ghana may have entered into an arrangement where the more we succeed in raising revenue, the more we pay out, without limit, without clarity, and without public accountability. That is not innovation. That is risk. This raises serious corruption concerns in the application of an Artificial Intelligence solution to our revenue challenges. Potentially, this is how nations lose billions quietly.

14. Ghanaians have the brainpower and expertise to analyse the Truedare Publican Artificial Intelligence powered customs clearance contract and determine exactly what we are signing away, or saving, in this commercial arrangement.

So my modest requests to President Mahama, the Finance Minister, and the GRA Commissioner are:

a. Disclose the contract.

b. Disclose the financial model.

c. Disclose the revenue-sharing terms.

15. Until these are made public and clear in this commercial contract, the concerns will remain. I truly dare say that it is a disgrace to hide the financial terms and conditions of a commercial contract, this is not even a national security contract.

#MEN@WORK.