Dr. Bawumia
The Latin phraseology ‘ceteris paribus’ which translates as ‘if all other things remain equal’, has a significant importance in economics in my humble opinion.
Take, for instance, but for the ecumenically diffused coronavirus and the protracted Ukraine/Russia impasse, Ghana’s economy under Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration would have been improved tremendously by now.
The ace journalist, Malik Kweku Baako hit the nail on the head when he pointed out on Joy FM’s political show (News File) on Saturday 6/04/2019 that the Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration performed exceedingly better in the first two years than the erstwhile NDC administration led by former President Mahama.
Juxtaposing the state of the economy in the first two years of the two administrations, Malik Kweku Baako aptly concluded that the economy was in a better shape under the Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration than it was under the Mahama administration.
Baako Jnr, therefore, asserted poignantly: “There’s no doubt that the Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration has done far better than the Mahama administration; it’s as simple as that, the figures and the records support it (myjoyonline.com, 6/04/2019).”
My dear reader, despite the absence of insidious coronavirus or Ukraine/Russia conflict during the Mahama administration, Ghanaians became fed up with the extremely harsh conditions amid corruption allegations (Bus branding, Brazil World Cup, SADA, SUBA, GYEEDA, SSNIT, MASLOC, NCA, Ford Expedition Vehicle, amongst others).
Notwithstanding the incontrovertible evidence of wilful mismanagement, the NDC loyalists would want discerning Ghanaians to believe that the erstwhile NDC government provided exceptional governance.
Some of us have always held a firm and unadulterated conviction that governance is a serious business and as such it requires forward thinking, serious and committed candidate to bring about the needed progress.
Nevertheless, it has not always been the case in Ghana’s democratic dispensation. We have more often than not been relying on a semi-circle of negligent economic managers whose main preoccupation is to amass wealth at the detriment of the poor and disadvantaged Ghanaians.
If we stroll down memory lane, three years after former President Kufuor’s NPP administration had worked tirelessly and discovered oil in commercial quantities, the NDC administration led by the late President Mills only had the easiest job of turning on the valve at an offshore platform in December 2010 to pump the first commercial oil.
Ghana rightly associated itself with the petroleum exporting countries. And believe it or not, Ghana started to export crude oil which boosted the economic growth.
The economy grew favourably from around 8.4 per cent to around 14 per cent by 2011 and Ghana subsequently reached the Lower Middle Income status.
Ghana’s GDP grew exponentially from GH28 billion to a staggering GH47 billion by 2011.
Ghana was then cited as the world's fastest-growing economy in 2010 (Economy Watch, 2010).
To his credit, the late President Mills continued to improve upon the excellent economic foundation laid by former President Kufuor and his NPP government.
President Mills mysteriously departed from life in July 2012. And, per Ghana’s 1992 Constitution, Vice President Mahama was the next in line to take over the presidency.
Things regrettably started to fall apart. It went from bad to worse following President Mills' sudden and mysterious death.
Ghana’s total debt rocketed astronomically (GH9.5 billion in 2009 to GH122.4 billion as of December 2016). This was as a result of the unbridled spending in the 2012 election and the numerous corruption scandals involving GYEEDA, SADA, SUBA, Bus Branding, dubious judgement debt payments amongst others.
Ghana’s economic growth rate was woefully reversed from 14% in 2011 to an incredible 3.6% by 2016. The GDP was shockingly reduced by GH10 billion (from GH47 billion in 2011 to GH37 billion in 2016).
The erstwhile Mahama administration incredibly reversed the agricultural growth from 7.4 per cent in 2012 to a disappointing 2.5 per cent by December 2016.
Ghana’s economic growth regrettably slowed for the fourth consecutive year to an estimated 3.4% in 2015 from 4% in 2014 as energy rationing, high inflation, and ongoing fiscal consolidation weighed on economic activity (World Bank, 2016).
In addition, the high inflation rate remained elevated at 18.5% in February 2016 compared to 17.7% in February 2015, even after the Central Bank’s 500 bps policy rate hikes (the inflation stood at 15.8 per cent as of October 2016).
Ex-President Mahama and his NDC apparatchiks cunningly took refuge in their much touted infrastructural projects after failing to initiate expedient policies to overturn the failed policies of agriculture, poverty reduction and resource allocation in the areas of healthcare, education, finance, and security sector planning, amongst others.
As a matter of principle, some of us will keep questioning the judgement of those who have been proclaiming somewhat brashly that Ghana’s economy under former President Mahama (3.4% growth and 15.4% inflation) was better than Akufo-Addo/Bawumia record before the insidious coronavirus (8.6% growth and 7.5% inflation).
Needless to say, before the deadly coronavirus, Bawumia dutifully assisted Akufo-Addo and raised Ghana’s economic growth from 3.4% to 8.6%.
It was Bawumia who estimably assisted Akufo-Addo and within a short space of time reversed the inflation from 15.4% to 7.5%.
Interestingly, in the first two years of the Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration, the Agriculture sector recorded the highest growth rate of 8.4%.
Indeed, the Agriculture sector expanded from a growth rate of 3.0 percent in 2016 to 8.4 percent in 2017 (GSS, 2018).
The Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration, before the unspeakable coronavirus, recorded the highest growth rate of 16.7 % in the Industry sector.
The Industry sector, the highest-growing sector with a GDP share of 25.5 percent, had its growth rate increasing from -0.5 percent in 2016 to 16.7 percent in 2017 (GSS, 2018).
Sometime in 2019, a video clip went vile, purported to be that of a forum, organised by the leadership of the opposition NDC, showing a guest speaker, a Nigerian scholar, candidly commending the Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration on Ghana’s favourable economic growth before the deadly coronavirus, obviously, to the utter chagrin of his hosts (the NDC Executives), many of whom were befuddled on the guest speaker’s unbelievable intellectual honesty.
The overarching question then is: Did the NDC loyalists really trust the judgement of the said knowledgeable and largely credible Nigerian academic?
Well, I am pretty sure they did; else they would not have invited him to speak on Ghana’s economy at their special gathering.
Interestingly, preceding the honest and erudite Nigerian’s endorsement of Ghana’s well-publicised propitious economic growth, were praises from some credible international organisations and influential people, both home and abroad.
Unsurprisingly, prior to the 2020 general elections, the reputable Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) reported that the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) was going to retain power (see: ‘2020 election is yours to lose-EIU predicts NPP victory’; myjoyonline.com/ghanaweb.com, 15/09/2019).
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report concluded that former President John Dramani Mahama was going to find it extremely difficult to convince discerning Ghanaians into accepting that he is the preferable manager of Ghana’s economy, given the country’s fairly strong economic growth under Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration before the pernicious coronavirus.
But despite the reputable organisations and other prominent people’s positive remarks on Ghana’s economy back then, the naysayers were never inspired. But were we really surprised? No, after all, hasn’t it written: ‘no prophet is accepted in his homeland’?
Ghana’s economy received thumbs-up from the likes of the then Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Ms Christine Lagarde, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, Philip Alston, and other reputable international organisations, who had earlier commended the Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration on its excellent economic performance in the three and half years in office.
In 2017, the Bloomberg News, for example, predicted Ghana to become “Africa’s fastest-growing economy in 2018 “and Ghana was proclaimed “Star of Africa in 2018 Lenders’ Economic Forecasts”.
In reporting on the same fiscal policy achievements, Le Monde pointed out that “Ghana’s economic success is not just as the result of an oil-driven boom, but is also due to prudent economic management, an entrepreneurial population, the role of traditional leaders, and good governance.”
The then Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Ms Christine Lagarde’s observed that the Ghanaian economy, before the insidious coronavirus, was in a better place than it was in the previous years under the John Dramani Mahama administration.
Ms Lagarde opined that the Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration made important gains towards macroeconomic stability, including inflation, which declined to a single digit and within the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG’s) tolerance band; buoyant growth, averaging about five per cent in 2018, and, over six per cent in 2017-18) and a primary surplus in 2017 for the first time in 15 years (IMF 2018).
The Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, Philip Alston, observed: “Ghana met the targets for halving extreme poverty and halving the proportion of people without access to safe drinking water, and it achieved the goals relating to universal primary education and gender parity in primary school.
Evidently, Akufo-Addo/Bawumia administration did exceedingly better in the first term in office than Mahama.
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