Mysteries behind the NDC 2020 election petition to the Supreme Court

After a lot of ugly noises, rioting on the streets through demonstrations, accusations and claims to have won the 2020 Presidential Elections, President John Dramani Mahama has issued a Petition to the Supreme Court challenging the declaration by the Electoral Commission that Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo won the election by the constitutionally required margin of 50% plus 1 vote of the total valid vote cast during the 2020 Presidential Elections.

OBSERVATIONS

John Dramani Mahama in his Petition does not challenge the figures put forward by the Electoral Commission. I use the word “challenge” advisedly and would explain shortly. In other words, John Dramani Mahama has at various times claimed victory does not:

a. Put forward his own data or figures that show that he was the outright winner of the election.

b. Challenge the figures put out by the Electoral Commission.

On the contrary what John Dramani Mahama has done is to ascertain the veracity of the conclusions reached by the Electoral Commission and posit that the EC’s own figures do not support the conclusion, ie Declaration made by the Commission. In order words, President John Dramani Mahama is demanding a run-off after his “auditing” of the pink sheets and collation Sheets” of the Electoral Commission.

To achieve this, John Dramani Mahama has put a mischievous spin on the facts and figures put out by the Electoral Commission and proceeded therefrom to foist his petition on the very figures he is challenging.

Act 1 scene 1 of Showcase in Dagbani cum Akan drama.

Article 63(3) of the 1992 Constitution provides as follows:

“A person shall not be elected as President of Ghana unless at the presidential election the number of votes cast in his favour is more than fifty per cent of the total number of valid votes cast at the election.”

The following words are important in any election:

a. Number on the Electoral Roll or Register

b. Number of persons who voted on the day of election. In other words, voter turn-out.

c. Number of VALID VOTES CAST. Valid because although a voter may vote, he or she may vote for example for two candidates in which case the vote or ballot is invalidated.

d. Flowing from the above, therefore, we have the category of rejected ballots and then spoilt ballots. While the latter is so because it is unclear from the ballot paper which candidate the voter may have voted for, in the case of spoilt ballot, a voter may for one reason or the other say, mishandle a voter slip necessitating the issuance of a new ballot paper. In this piece, we would limit ourselves to rejected ballots simpliciter.

e. Thus, in any given election, having determined:

i. The voter turn-out, the Electoral Commission must proceed to determine:

ii. Number of rejected ballots and

iii. Number of valid votes cast.

iv. Number of rejected ballots plus number of valid votes cast is equal to Total votes cast.

In her declaration of 9th December 2020, the Electoral Commissioner published the figure 13,434,574 as of the number of “total valid votes cast”. Same represented a 79% voter turn-out.

In the Declaration, no mention is made of:

A. Number of spoilt ballots

B. Number of Rejected Ballots

From the foregoing, therefore, one can assume that there was neither a spoilt or rejected ballot. In other words, all 13,434,574 votes were deemed as valid and therefore formed the basis for determining the outcome of the election. (This is the tenor of Para 6 of JDM’s Petition).

It is for this reason that John Dramani Mahama contends that using the sum 13,434,574 as of the denominator, Akufo Addo having obtained 6,730,413 obtained 50.098 of the total valid votes cast and not 51.595% as declared by the Electoral Commission. (paras 7 and 8 of Petition).

This is the position taken by John Dramani Mahama and he has unashamedly and unapologetically proceeded on the basis that the 2020 general elections did not occasion a rejected ballot.

This stance, pretentious and bizarre is however unmasked by the several exhibits attached to the Petition. For example, one finds on the various collation sheets marked as Exhibit E the words:

i. “Total Valid Ballots”;

ii. Total Rejected Ballots” and

iii. “Total Votes Cast”.

It is therefore mischievous, misleading, inveigle, trickery and near fraudulent to pretend that the figure of 13,434,574 represented “total Valid Votes cast’ and not the “total number of votes cast” on the day of election which as stated above is made up of valid votes and rejected ballots.

It is trite saying, garbage in garbage out. Thus, with the figure of 13,434,574 as representing total valid votes cast, John Dramani Mahama is “right” in his analysis then that having obtained 6,730,413 exclusives of the results from Techiman South, Nana Akufo Addo would have obtained 50.09% per cent of the Total valid votes cast using the “mistake figure” of 13,434, 574 as representing “total valid votes cast”.

As at the date of making her Declaration, the results of Techiman South, we were told were being contested. The Declaration, therefore, did not include voting results from this Constituency. However, as at the date of filing of his Petition, John Dramani Mahama per his own Exhibit E series had the actual figures for Techiman South Constituency as declared by the Electoral Commission.

Consequently, it is most unfortunate for JDM to invite the Supreme Court to go on a fishing expedition into the realm of conjecture as to what the effect of adding the sum of 128,018 which represents the total number of registered voters in the Techiman South Constituency would have on the total number of valid votes cast, ie 13,434,574 as announced by the Electoral Commission. (refer to paragraphs 14 and 15 of the Petition).

As at the date of the Declaration, the Electoral Commission declared the following figures for Akufo Addo and John Dramani Mahama as 6,730,413 and 6,214,889 respectively.

From JDM’s Exhibit E, Nana Akufo Addo obtained 46,379 in the Techiman South Constituency while JDM had 52,034 votes. Total valid votes cast per Exhibit E is 97,227.

Therefore, to obtain the total valid votes cast using the figures and exhibits provided by JDM in his Petition, we add the sum of 97,227 to the figure 13,434,574 (declared by the Electoral Commission) and this gives us a total valid vote cast of 13,531,801. As stated above, we are using this figure as representing total valid votes cast as John Dramani Mahama wants the Supreme Court to do. That being the case, to secure victory, a candidate must obtain 50% plus one vote of this figure. The magical figure therefore being 6,765,900.5.

Since Akufo Addo obtained 6,730,413 (minus Techiman South) we must add the sum of 46,379 (Exhibit E) to his total and similarly add 52,034 to the votes of 6,214,889 already secured by John Dramani Mahama. The result would be as follows:

a. Nana Akufo Addo = 6,776,792

b. John Dramani Mahama = 6,266,923

We, therefore, have to ascertain whether the sum of 6,776,792 obtained by Nana Akufo Addo out of the total valid votes cast of 13,531,801 makes Nana Akuof Addo an outright winner; ie 50% plus one. Elementary mathematics as a thought in Primary School, if less more divide, so therefore 6,776,792 divided by 13,531,801 multiplied by 100 is equal to 50.08%. This still, therefore, makes Nana Akufo Addo the outright winner.

However, proceeding further, John Dramani Mahama claims that per Exhibit E a rigorous audit done by him revealed that whereas the total valid votes cast per the constituencies stated therein amounted to 602,104, the NDC’s audit of these showed that it ought to have been 601,144. In summary, an overstating of actual valid votes cast by 960 votes. In this vein, therefore, assuming the data as provided by John Dramani Mahama as evidence in support of his petition to the Supreme Court is accurate, we have to in this analysis reduce the “total number of valid votes cast” by 960 votes.

Subtracting 960 votes from 13,531,801 leaves us a remainder sum of 13,530,841. This figure, therefore, becomes our new Actual or correct “valid votes cast”. We would for the sake of this analysis take out the same number from Akufo Addo’s gross total of 6,776,792 and we have the sum 6,775,832. Calculating 6,775,832 as a percentage of 13,530,841 gives us 50.07% which again makes Nana Akufo Addo the winner.

But then again, John Dramani Mahama per Exhibit F contends that the sum of 5,662 was wrongly added to the votes as cast in favour of Nana Akufo Addo. We would proceed on the assumption that is correct. We, therefore, subtract the sum of 5,662 from the total 6,775,832 given to Akufo Addo and this leaves him with total votes of 6,770,170.

Taking the sum 6,770,170 as a percentage of the total valid votes cast of 13,530,841 gives Akufo Addo 50.03%; once again a winner of the election.

On the face of the assertions by JDM therefore in his Petition and assuming all facts therein to be true this would be the result with JDM still a loser.

As stated above this whole charade is being foisted on the words “Valid votes cast” as declared to by the Commission on 9th December 2020 but which was subsequently corrected. Basing analysis on this mistake and accepting all the allegations in the Petition still makes Nana Addo the winner. All he needed was 50% plus 1 vote.

Act 2 Scene 1 Showcase in Ga featuring ……..

Paragraph 12 of the Petition makes interesting reading. John Dramani Mahama contends that when one adds the total valid votes attributed to each candidate by the Electoral Commission, then the total valid votes cast should be 13,121,111 AND NOT 13,434,574. If so, why then did John Dramina Mahama in his Petition use this figure as the basis for his contention that Nana Akufo Addo did not obtain 50% plus 1 vote out of the total number of valid votes cast?

Once again however assuming this figure of 13,121,111 to be accurate, then having obtained or being declared to have secured 6,730,413 (minus Techiman South) then Akufo Addo on the figure of 13,121,111 as total valid votes deposed to on oath by John Dramani Mahama obtained 51.29%; an outright winner.

While one may choose to add the actual figures from Techiman South and do the deductions as done supra, what is not in doubt is that Nana Akufo Addo on the basis of facts deposed by John Dramani Mahama won outright the 2020 election. Why therefore this nuisance Petition? Is it just to offer further proof of the tag of incompetence? This olooshie mathematics by John Dramani Mahama must not detain the Country for even a moment. The Petition of JDM must be dismissed in limine as the same does not show any reasonable cause of Action.

KB & KD