N.P.P must persuade Nii Noi NOT to go independent!
The fairytale dance being played in the Osu Korley Constituency by the N.P.P is quite interesting to watch. The drama has also not been absent from the side of the N.D.C. The N.P.P organized a first primary in the constituency sanctioned by the suspended General Secretary of the N.P.P in the person of Kwabena Adjei Agyepong in which Mr. Valentino Nii Noi won by a landslide after Phillip Addison claimed to have boycotted. Phillip Addison did not take this lying low. He resorted to several court actions to overturn the results in the primary and has the whole election declared an illegality. After several legal gymnastics, the court ruled and ordered the N.P.P to resolve the issue. The leadership of the N.P.P thought the best way to resolve the issue is to organize fresh primaries in the constituency and overturn the first one. After initial hesitation Valentino Nii Noi decided to contest but lost the rerun to Phillip Addison. Now it’s the turn of Nii Noi to also flex his muscles and reject the results!! He protested vehemently and has now decided to go independent!!
Several N.P.P supporters without obvious experience in politics has rubbished Nii Noi’s ambition and even dared him to go ahead with his plans since the N.P.P will win the constituency with or without him. Most of these supporters are just the lunatic fringes who are blind to the age old maxim that politics is all about numbers. I wish to take the N.P.P to several episodes in their history where disgruntled members of their party went independent and won.
1. In 2008, Joe Osei Owusu contested the Bekwai seat as an independent candidate after losing the primaries to the then incumbent MP Edusei. In the election, Joe Osei Wusu pulled 34,700 votes to defeat the incumbent Edusei who only pulled 8,560 votes!!
2. In 2008, the incumbent MP for Bosome Freho Hon Ofori Kuragu lost the NPP primaries to Kwadjo Kyei Frimpong. He subsequently contested the election as an independent candidate and won the constituency with 9,140 votes!
3. In 2008, Seth Adjei Baah lost the N.P.P primaries to Okerchira Kwabena Adusa in the Nkawkaw constituency. He then contested the election as an independent candidate and won massively with 21,507 votes!!
The point of all these examples I have given is that even in N.P.P strongholds independent candidates can and do win how much more a swing seat like Osu Korley Klottey?? Let us examine the Osu Korley seat since 2000 and see why Nii Noi going independent is disastrous for the campaign of the N.P.P
Korley Klottey electoral results since 2000:
Nii Adu Darko Mante (N.P.P)...........29,240
David Lamptey (N.D.C)...................20,222
Difference in Votes.........................9,018
Nii Adu Darko Mante (N.P.P)...........32,263
Nii Amarh Ashittey (N.D.C)..............30,351
Difference in Votes.........................1,912
Nii Amarh Ashittey (N.D.C).............30,633
Samuel J Adjei Tawiah (N.P.P)........28,011
Difference in Votes.........................2,622
Nii Amarh Ashittey (N.D.C).............36,122
Samuel J Adjei Tawiah (N.P.P)........34,847
Difference in Votes.........................1,275
1. Osu Korley Klottey has the practice of changing its MP every 8 years as can be seen from the declining votes of all sitting MPs.
2. The constituency is a clear swing one as no single political party is dominant when it comes to votes.
3. Samuel J Adjei Tawiah of the N.P.P could have won the seat if the party had retained him as its parliamentary candidate since it was clear from the results that the people were now believing in him
4. One of the reasons for the rejection of Nii Adu Darko Mante in 2008 was the allegation that he had Akwapim heritage and the determination of the people to vote for a local Osu boy as they did to Nii Amarh Ashittey
5.Apart from 2000 when the difference in votes was 9,018, the rest of the years has an average voter difference of 1,933. This razor thin difference can be bridged by any serious parliamentary candidate.
6. As we can see, if Nii Noi even pulls 2,000 votes in Osu, it will be a disasater for the N.P.P.
7.Nii Noi has a bright chance of winning the seat. The reasons are 1. N.D.C supporters backing Nii Amarh Ashittey will likely vote for Nii Noi who is an independent candidate than the N.P.P candidate. 2. Disgruntled N.P.P supporters backing Nii Noi will vote skirt and blouse ie Nana Addo and Nii Noi than Addison. 3. Neutral Osu voters will also vote for the independent candidate than either N.D.C or NPP candidates. 5. Hardcore ultra Ga nationalists will vote for a real Ga Osu boy than Addison who has a Fanti blood and Ezenetor Rawlings who is neither from Osu or a full blooded Osu woman!
All in all, the N.P.P must work seriously to convince Nii Noi Nortey to step down. The NPP for a start can refund all expenses incurred by Nii Noi in his campaign and promise him a juicy position in Nana Addo's government ( AMA Boss, Deputy Minister or something juicy) can do some magic. This is the time for the N.P.P to demonstrate that they can work out some compromises with those who disagree with them! Nii Noi must be persuaded to step down!!
Henry Nii Kpakpo Allotey