Significance of Offinso South

On 24th of this month, there is an bye-election in Offinso South in the Ashanti region. So on this Sunday night here, I set myself a riddle. It is this: are there people out there in the Ghanaian electorate to be had? And here, I mean uncommitted voters or voters committed but prepared to give their votes to parties other than the NPP and NDC. The following is voting behavior of Offinso South in the past.

In 2004, the following parliamentary results: Daniel Adusei Poku, PNC, 202, 0.5%; Desmond Osei Kwame, CPP, 148, 0.4%; Faibil Nsiah Boateng, EGLE, 95, 0.3%; Joseph Akwasi Kumah, Independent, 6170, 16.3%; Kwabena Sarfo, NPP, 19694, 51.9%; and Ms Barbara Serwaa Asamoah, NDC, 11637, 30.7%.

In the bye-election due a touch over 2 weeks time, the following are standing: Dr Owusu Achaw Duah, (NPP); Mrs Barbara Serwaah Asamoah, (NDC); Miss Doris Appiah, (DPP); and Mr Emmanuel Kwasi Addai, (Independent)

I would be noting the following in the Offinso South bye-election

1. Voter turnout
2. Would the major parties maintain, increase or decrease their share of votes?
3. If the major parties maintain their share of votes, i.e. 51.9 + 30.7 or 82.6% of the votes, where would the remaining 17.4% go?

Offinso South is very important for the Nkrumaist parties to gauge the electoral mood, even though no Nkrumaist party is registered to contest. It might tell the Nkrumaist parties what per cent of the votes they could expect to get if they mobilize well enough. It might tell them what competition they may expect from the newly formed Obed's DFP. At the last elections, the Nkrumaist parties obtained a total of 445 votes (i.e. 1.2% of the total votes). That was 92% less than that obtained by the then independent candidate who got 6170 votes or 16.3%. The Nkrumaist parties appear weak in Offinso South, but it appears Offinso South has a strong tradition of independent voting.

Offinso South should be a good gauge of current electoral mood and potential voter drifts. It might also be a referendum on voter views on the birth of a new party from an old one - the DFP out of the NDC, and recent negative publicity copped by the Government regarding among others the cocaine investigations, corruption, and power outages.

Would the voter turn out be meaningful enough to guide us in making sense of the bye-election outcome? If the voter turn out is greater than 85%, Offinso South would be significant indeed in gauging the electoral fortunes of the parties, perhaps more so that previous bye-elections. It is in NPP’s stronghold and the bye-election arose out of non-controversial circumstances

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