Opinions Wed, 31 Dec 2008

Tain Will Tell

Akufo-Addo will get a taste of his own 'Nduro' and by 'nduro', I mean medicine with no sarcasm intended.

Akufo-Ado (NPP) is currently trailing Attah-Mills (NDC) by 23,055 votes with one constituency yet to vote “ Tain in the Brong Ahafo Region“ because of the late arrival of electoral materials on December 28.  In the Tain presidential election of December 7, Atta-Mills beat Akufo-Addo by 1,276 votes, not counting the votes to that went to the other six candidates.

In as much as I want Akufo-Addo to be humbled by a lesson or two, I agree that the Tain election has to be carried out because, fairly enough, he has a statistical chance of winning “ statistical only. For instance, if all the votes in Tain Constituency go for him, he may win but, rationally, or any other way you look at the numbers, Attah-Mils should win with his hands in his pocket.

It is likely that Attah-Mills will retain his previous votes with some more from the small parties because all the candidates from the small parties were challenging Akufo-Addo/NPP for the presidency. Some of Nana's supporters will now vote for Mills because, wrongly or not, there is public sentiment that Mills has already won but the NPP, with the EC on its side, is refusing' to relinquish power. In the view of the public, the fear of Rawlings causing mayhem, which seems to be Akufo-Ado/NPP's main campaign message, has greatly diminished because Rawlings handed over quietly and now he is even regarded as a peacemaker. There is the likelihood that voters who stayed away during the first round did so because they disapprove the performance of the NPP so if they decide to come back to the polling booth, they are more ikely to vote for Attah-Mills than for Akufo-Addo. it is therefore plain to see that Akufo-Addo is in a no-win situation - the more people vote, the better for Attah-Mills to widen the gap, the less people vote, the harder it get for Akufo-Addo to close the gap. My supposition is that, at worst, the Tain votes will be divided by the same ratio of 6 to 4 in favor of Attah-Mills as it happened in the general elections to give Attah-Mills an approximate 50.2% win.

There are so many wise sayings that describe the predicament that Akufo-Ado finds himself in now but the one I like best is the saying that if you cook for a sick person make sure that the food tastes good because you may end up eating it if he cannot eat. It was this same Akufo-Ado who told Attah-Mills to admit defeat before the presidential run-off with Kufour in order to save the nation some money. In that case it was not certain that Attah-Mills would lose but in this run-off, Akufo-Addo only has a mathematical chance of winning. Should Akufo-Addo now taste his own "nduro"?

Come January 2, Tain will tell Akufo-Addo that when he got the opportunity to serve his country he should have left a record the would speak for itself today. He shouldn't have been in bed with drug dealers, he should have' refrained form the outrageous campaign promises, respected the public by personally addressing the concerns of the masses about his alleged drug use and dubious law degree, and not' depended on the idiotic delusion that he has been ordained by God to be the president of Ghana.

I may be wrong, but I doubt it.

Kofi Amonu

Columnist: Amonu, Kofi