The Fulani herdsmen crisis: How not to solve 'wicked problems'

“Hundreds of herdsmen, cattle from Agogo invade Nsuta” was one headline I read yesterday. Think for a moment about this headline a week after the so-called operation to “flush” these herdsmen out of Agogo. Think again. If you are surprised about that headline then you are missing something. I was not, and like some others, I could have said “I told you so” weeks ago.

Peter Drucker, the great business thinker wrote, “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence- It is to act with yesterday’s logic.” It is about time we stop applying the same old logic to new challenges.

It is shocking to see how everyone, including those in policymaking positions, failed woefully to realize that driving herdsmen from one place simply means they will just move to other areas unless we address the larger issues of feed and livestock management.

So ultimately, we waste time, resources, and lives for a temporary solution. Like the beetle rolling a ball of cow dung, we simply move the problem along from place to place. If you pour a bucket of water out and a rock obstructs its flow, the water will simply find multiple ways to flow around the rock and you cannot predict, ahead of time, which direction the water will flow.

After all, we cannot drive all the cattle into the sea. Taflatse, the cattle must feed on something, somewhere.

The problems associated with this whole cattle and farm destruction issue are unique; they bear the hallmarks of the class of problems we call “wicked problems.” A wicked problem is a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because it is difficult to define. The problem is difficult to define because most people associated with the problem have different and often contradictory ideas of what the problem is and how the problem can be solved. Wicked problems require unique approaches and I outline some here, but first, I briefly explain some key characteristics of wicked problems. I will try to present these in a way that makes it easy for most people to follow.

Two individuals, Rittel and Webber, first used the term in 1973. According to the authors, wicked problems refer to a class of problems that are difficult to define and solve. These types of problems have some characteristics and understanding these may give us clues about how we can approach and try to deal with them. I present some, not all, of these characteristics for lack of space.

Every wicked problem is different. This means of course that the solutions we develop for one set of wicked problems cannot be applied to other problems even if we think the problems are similar. The fact is every wicked problem is unique. History and past experience, therefore, teaches us little when it comes to solving wicked problems. What worked in the past cannot be a template for what we face next time.

Any wicked problem can be seen as a symptom of another problem. The Fulani herdsmen problem has been around for a long time. When land was plentiful, it was a “live-and-let-live” sort of situation. Villages and towns probably welcomed these herdsmen, and peacefully co-existed with each other. However, land is not so plentiful anymore, climate change and population growth mean that there are fewer uncultivated lands hence the conflict over grazing.

I believe that this problem is part of a larger problem of the failure of our national livestock management policies over the years. There may be a comprehensive national livestock management policy on paper resting in a desk at the Ministry of Agriculture. However, we have not seen any comprehensive implementation of a livestock program over the years. We know that sheep and goats die periodically when there were the occasional disease outbreaks. Yet we have veterinary officers in most districts. The problem is how we equip, motivate and compensate the personnel who are so critical to any livestock policy.

Every stakeholder group associated with a wicked problem has a different idea about what the problem is and what the solutions ought to be. That, in part, makes agreement on what to do very difficult, if not impossible. I am sure if you ask the herdsmen and cattle owners, they will tell you what they think the problem is as well as what they believe the solutions are. So will the inhabitants of these areas and the government. Everyone probably has a different idea of what the problem is and what the solution should be. This makes the problem more complicated, qualifying it as a “wicked” one. At the same time, this points to one way of dealing with these kinds of problems and we will return to this later.

It is almost impossible for us to know if we have identified all possible solutions to a wicked problem. When people make decisions about a problem, they often have a list of alternatives. For example, I posted an article on Ghanaweb last week discussing some options for getting fodder. Other people may have other ideas. The list could be endless in terms of suggestions for solving this problem. That is the nature of a wicked problem.

It is very difficult, if not impossible to say we have really solved a wicked problem because our solutions may give rise to other problems. We have just seen that getting the cattle away from Agogo just led to another problem for the people of Nsuta. We are unable to tell if we have really solved a wicked problem or not because it is not easy to define the problem in the first place.

Solutions to wicked problems can only be good or bad, not true or false. This means that we cannot find a one final, clear solution for the problem. The best we can do is to try to find ways of improving the situation, rather than trying to impose a solution. The fact is, it is not easy to know when we have found a solution for a wicked problem and that may be one reason why the term wicked fits these classes of problems.

Those who try to address wicked problems must assume full responsibility for their actions. The government just put together a small army to impose one solution on the herdsmen crisis and the government bears responsibility, not anyone else.

Some readers should be wondering by now if we could actually do anything about wicked problems or just leave them to persist. The answer is yes; we can and must address wicked problems. I present some possible strategies for addressing wicked problems next.

First, the important thing not to do is use simple approaches to addressing wicked problems. Sending troops to flush out the cattle, shoot and kill livestock and evict the herdsmen from one area where they are causing destruction is by all definitions a very simple solution. Simple solutions cannot fix wicked problems because of the characteristics of wicked problems we discussed earlier.

Second, those who address wicked problems must think long-term. In other words, those actors must engage in strategic thinking. To have any measure of success, people committed to addressing wicked problems must do their best to define what the issues are. This is no easy task, but serious effort is needed to put some boundary around what the problem is. That would be a good first step. Coming up with possible solutions requires long, not short-term thinking. The way we are going about solving the herdsmen problem is very short-term. Not much thought appears to have been given to where the cattle should go and how to feed the cattle.

A simple resource requirement here would have been to come up with very clear ideas about how to feed the cattle once they are flushed out of the areas they are in now. The cattle have to go somewhere as folks are now seeing. I can understand those who would argue that drastic measures are needed for extraordinary challenges. That is part of the problem. This issue has been festering for at least 20 years through at least four regimes.

Third, it is important to engage in stakeholder consultations. Anyone who is affected by the problem is a stakeholder. The owners of the cattle who invested money, the herdsmen and their families who earn a living doing what they do, the land owners and farmers whose property is being destroyed, the local and national government whose mandate is to maintain peace and security. Get around a table and talk. Each group will come up with its own ideas and some maybe workable others not. At least talking and sharing ideas is a first start. Imposing arbitrary solutions without prior extensive consultation is a recipe for disaster. It will not work or address a wicked problem.

Fourth, everyone committed to addressing a wicked problem needs to be ready and willing to learn about the problem. Understanding why the problem arose in the first place is important. Knowing the genesis of cattle movement across Ghana and the Sahel can be educative. Understanding the nutritional needs and feeding habits of cattle is important. Appreciating how livelihoods depend on crops and farms grown by small holders would be enlightening. The readiness to learn about issues related to the environment of the wicked problem would help.

Finally, leadership is important. Stakeholders need leaders who have the mutual respect of everyone to lead the effort for addressing wicked problems. I have not heard any admonitions from our religious leaders on this issue. Religion seems to be a big thing in Ghana these days and surely, some of the religious leaders can play a role. The same goes for our traditional leaders. The Council of State has been unusually quiet. Leader visibility is important in crises. The Ministry of Agriculture must become a convener here. This is in their domain. This list is by no means exhaustive and I could go on.

We must stop the “react, forget, and react again if need be” approach to serious national issues and problems. Instead, we need to anticipate, consult, plan and learn before we act. I certainly hope that this issue is addressed without any further loss of lives and property.