Ghana is left with less than a month to go to the polls as all the political parties gear up for their campaigns and manifesto.
National Democratic Congress decided to face New Patriotic Party with female running mate, Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang, who with her strong charisma can, however, give Mahamudu Bawumia a good run.
Recently, an informal poll was conducted on social media for netizens to choose their favourite candidate, and shockingly, 70% voted for NDC’s John Mahama and Jane Naana Opoku Agyemang.
Well, this is just an informal poll which cannot determine the outcome of the 2020 general elections. One cannot also, rely on the results to predict the general elections.
This is because, past data and trends of such social media polls have never determined the outcome of general elections in Ghana.
In 2012, a similar social media poll was conducted and 75% voted for NPP.
In the general elections, NDC won with an unbelievable and huge margin, resulting in the 2012 election petition at the supreme court. You know something, NPP took the results to court because they were somehow deceived by these social media polls.
In this article, I will be outlining five (5) undisputable facts and reasons why NPP will win the December 7th 2020 general elections. Below are the reasons:
1.Ghanaians are used to the Two-Terms government culture
Since the inception of the 1992 constitution, when Ghana became a constitutional state, two terms government culture has been the direction of the political space. Former Jerry Rawlings become a constitutional president from 1992 to 2000, where per the term limit stated in the constitution, he cannot contest again. Former President Kuffour, on the NPP ticket, also won two terms, from 2000 to 2008. The late Atta Mills through the ticket of the NDC took the mantle and unfortunately couldn’t finish his two-term.
John Mahama, who through the ticket of the NDC was given the one term left by Ghanaians to satisfy the two-term government culture. With this trend in Ghana’s politics, it obviously proves that, NPP will be giving an additional one term as a way of life by Ghanaians. So because Ghanaians are used to the two-terms government culture, is unlikely for NDC to win, hence, NPP will be victorious on December 7th 2020.
2. Using a female running mate hasn’t been successful in Ghana before
According to research in Ghana’s political space, since Kwame Nkrumah reign till now, all presidential candidates who chose females as their running mates lost their elections. Let us go through from 1992 till now. Prof. Naa Afarley Sackeyfio, running mate for Kwabena Darko- NIP (1992). Petra Amegashie, running mate for Dan Lartey- GCPP (2000). Patricia Ameku, running mate for Emmanuel Ansah Antwi – DFP (2008). Cherita Sarpong, running mate for Dr. Abu Sakara Foster –CPP (2012). Late Eva Lokko, running mate for Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom-PPP (2012). Helen Matervi, running mate for Dr. Hassan Ayariga-PNC (2012). Lastly, Brigitte Dzogbenuku, running mate for Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom- PPP (2016). With this data and historical trend, it was observed, all these presidential candidates who used female running mates didn’t even get closer to winning the election. They lost awfully. Certainly, with the Ghanaian culture on feminism, NDC cannot win the election, which will give NPP an advantage.
3.NPP’s incumbency power can affect the election results
Ghana’s political space sometimes thrives on incumbency power. The incumbency power determines the election outcome. When, we are talking about incumbency power here, we are talking about the power to appoint polling officials, presiding and returning officers. Even the Electoral commissioner was appointed through political affiliations.
With the incumbency power, it is even difficult to differentiate between party resources and state resources, as we see most incumbent MPs using state logistics during campaigns. Ghana’s election campaign is about who has the most resources and logistics. I see NPP with the most resources regarding the elections. More cars, more electorate gifts, more cash and certainly that’s why it will be 4 more to Nana. Also, as the incumbent government will be campaigning with what they’ve done such as school feeding programme, free SHS, Teachers and nurses training allowance restoration, one district-one factory and the rest, the opposition party has nothing other than just discrediting what the government has achieved. This will give NPP an upper hand in the general elections.
4. COVID 19 pandemic will favor NPP government
Another reason why NPP will come out victorious in the upcoming 2020 election is the effect of the pandemic. With the high level of fear and stigmatization from COVID-19, where Ghanaians witnessed the efforts of the government, most people who benefited from the efforts will undoubtedly vote for NPP. Also, with the fear of infections and spread, it is likely most people will not come out to vote during the election. And this will give the incumbent government the upper hand. With the news of more political leaders in the NPP party getting infected with the virus, as a sympathy and to show condolences, Ghanaians will translate their affections to the lost souls into votes. Similar incidence happened when NDC lost the late Atta Mills. It was observed that, more people voted for the NDC party to show their sympathy as the winning gap between NDC and NPP was unprecedented. Ghanaians are more of sympathizers and NPP will be victorious due to the pandemic.
5. New voters’ registration exercise has disenfranchised a lot of NDC members
Finally, the pressure to register a lot of Ghanaians before the 2020 elections will cause many people not getting registered. From observations, the Ghana card registration is simultaneously being carried out with the voters’ registration in some areas. These can result in human errors and possible over and under registrations.
There will be over registrations in NPP strongholds and under registration in NDC strongholds which is part of the political game. The name of the game is ‘’disenfranchise members of your opponents to win”.
That’s why we are seeing more confusions in some of the strongholds of the NDC, especially the Volta region. From the attack on NDC polling agents at some of the registration centres, you can’t even pay attention to your work as NDC polling agent, because you are scared. The processes involved in the registration and the mandatory citizenship proof before one can get registered is a disenfranchising tactic. And NPP is very good in playing those tactics, so obviously, 4 More to do More. 4 MORE FOR NANA.