After January 7, 2009 President Kuffour would be history. His political life would be over. Some people within his party, New Patriotic Party (NPP) are dusting their shoes, shaving beards and ironing suits all with the hope of stepping into his shoes. A number of names are making the rounds. As the time draws near the real ones would throw their caps into the ring. Each would espouse his/her strengths to convince the electorate for votes. While a lot would stretch their luck only one would be chosen to run for the position of the president of Ghana.
The NPP increased its parliamentary strength from 30 in 1996 to 128 in 2004 and in the process won the presidency two times. The party’s performances in the last three elections are likely to deceive some people into thinking that the next election is a foregone conclusion in their favor. This is where NPP has to be cautioned that it is not Kuffour any more. It is going to be another person altogether. Can the person replacing Kuffour deliver both the presidency and parliament to NPP again? To answer this question one has to look at a major factor that has shaped the Ghanaian political landscape
Krobo Edusei of blessed memory said among other things during the 1979 general elections that to be a president of Ghana one had to be a Doctor. He supported his position by referring to both Kwame Nkrumah and Kofi Abrefa Busia as being Doctors who had ruled Ghana. He told Mr. Victor Owusu that he had to be a Doctor before Ghanaians would vote for him to be the president. He lost the elections to Dr. Hilla Limann. Was it a mere coincidence? It so happened that Ghanaians preferred Nkrumah’s party, the Convention Peoples Party (CPP) that had come in the form of the Peoples National Party (PNP) over Busia’s United Party (UP) that had metamorphosed into the Popular Front Party (PFP) led by Victor Owusu. If Krobo Edusei’s ‘theory’ held then neither Rawlings nor Kuffour would be president of Ghana respectively since at the time of choice none of them was a Doctor. Rawlings later on in his presidency was honored by Lincoln University in the US with a doctorate degree. Again if one relied on this analogy then the next president after Kuffour would be one with a first name called John. Perhaps after over eleven years between the last of the three Doctors Ghanaians dropped the title and went for those with the first name John. Thus we had John Rawlings (1993-2000) and John Kuffour (2001-2008). It would be interesting though, if the next president bore the first name John.
On a more serious note one has to look at the geographical distribution of Ghanaians’ choice of presidents/prime minister. Those who had had the honor to be elected presidents had come from various parts of the country each representing, on a broader level, the various groupings of the people who make up Ghana. The Akans (consisting of the Asantes, Akyems, Akuapims, Kwahus, Fantis and Bonos) who are in the majority and are found mainly in the central part of the country have had two in the persons of Kofi Abrefa Busia and John Agyekum Kuffour. Even within the Akans Ghanaians chose them from different ethnic groups; Bono and Asante. Kwame Nkrumah, whose name would look like that of an Akan came from the western part of Ghana representing the Nzema/Aowin/Efutu people. The most diverse people in Ghana, Northerners, came out with Hilla Limann while those in the eastern part representing the Ewe/Anlo/Atakpame/Nkonya are identified with John Rawlings.
One interesting observation is that in all elections one group competed against the other for the presidency. This is evident in Nkrumah (Nzema) versus Busia (Bono) in 1956; Busia (central) struggled it out with Gbedema (eastern) (1969); Limann (northern)/ Victor Owusu (Asante) (1979) while Rawlings (Ewe) locked horns with Adu Boahene (1992) and Kuffour (1996) all Akans. The exception came in 2000 and 2004 where for the first time two Akans, Kuffour (Asante) and Atta Mills (Fante) fought each other for the presidency. In effect, Ghanaians have chosen to randomly rotate its number one citizen among its diverse peoples.
It could be seen from all these that one dominant group had not featured anywhere in the presidency. This is the Ga-Adanbge group of people. They occupy the national capital. They have the numbers but they are shy of being politically united as the Akans and Ewes. Perhaps this is so because they had never presented a presidential candidate from any dominant political party such as the UP or the CPP in the past and NDC/NPP in the present. If they did we would likely see them in the same way as the others. Their loyalty and bravely as evidenced in Obetseby Lamptey and General Odartey Wellington are very significant and recognized by all Ghanaians.
It was time their contributions towards the development of Ghana rewarded with the presidency, as had been the case for all the other groups. The Party well placed to do so right now is the NPP. Elections are about numbers; the first to cross the line wins. NPP is solid and entrenched among the Akans where the numbers are. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) derives its strength from both the northern and eastern (Ewe) parts of the country. Here the numbers are not all that strong compared to the Akans. The NDC thus augment its numbers from the Ga-Adangbes. However in the 2004 Presidential elections the NPP edged out the NDC with 51.7% to 46.6% respectively. In the Parliamentary again the NPP picked up 16 of the 27 seats while the NDC took the remaining 11 seats.
What this means is that NPP is relatively stronger in the Greater Accra region, peopled by the Ga-Adangbes . The area would be a battleground for the 2008 general elections. It could be NDC’s Waterloo if NPP planned well. In any battle the one with the best execution of strategy wins. For the NPP to win this group hands down it would need to let the people feel that it was their time. One sure way of doing this would be if the presidential candidate was, to quote Nigerian political parlance, “son of the soil….. to reflect the national character”.
NPP would derive a number of advantages from this position. This would water down NDC’s oft repeated critique that NPP is only for the Asantes/Akans. It would challenge the solidarity of the Ga-Adangbes. All other groups had over the years voted for their sons. What would prevent them from doing so? NPP would win the swing votes and draw sympathy votes from most of its diehard opponents. Such people would vote secretly for the NPP. Given the chance this time around, based on what had been said earlier, Ghanaians would vote for anyone but an Akan. NPP should focus on a candidate from a ‘deprived group’ –Ga-Adangbes. NDC is likely to present an Akan candidate based on its believe that if Mills won his Akan (Fante) base in the 2004 elections, he would be the president of Ghana. This would mean they would take the Ga-Adange votes for granted. NPP could be sure of its Akan solidarity so it would be strategically prudent to divert NDC’s attention from its invasion into the Akan areas to their hold on the Ga-Adangbes. The intention here would be to distract NDC for them to make mistakes. In a situation of equal strengths, victory is won by capitalizing on the opponent’s mistakes while at the same time concentrating on one’s plans.
One question to be asked is whether NPP wants the Party or a particular person to be in power. If the party is to be in power then it should not allow an Akan to succeed an Akan but rather bring Onu Ga on board. They have the numbers to deliver the goods. Twaa! Manyiaba!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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