The US and Iran - A complex geopolitical standoff

Iran has long been a pivotal player in the geopolitics of the Middle East, a region fraught with instability, ongoing conflict and shifting alliances. Despite its central role in these dynamics, the United States has often been criticized for failing to effectively contain Iran’s influence, despite its vast power and strategic interests in the region.

This raises an important question: Is the US afraid of Iran, and has this fear contributed to its struggle to rein in Iran’s activities? To answer this question, we must delve into the historical, geopolitical, and strategic complexities that define the US-Iran relationship, as well as the larger issue of Iran’s role in the Middle East’s instability.

A Legacy of Distrust

The US and Iran’s turbulent relationship dates back decades. It began with the 1953 CIA-backed coup that overthrew Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, and reinstituted the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, whose regime was heavily supported by the West.

This marked the beginning of an era of deep US involvement in Iranian affairs. However, the 1979 Iranian Revolution brought this era to a dramatic end. The overthrow of the Shah and the subsequent establishment of the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini shifted Iran’s foreign policy from pro-Western to fiercely anti-Western, most notably through the taking of US hostages at the US embassy in Tehran.

This event signaled the beginning of a period of hostility, with Iran opposing US influence in the region at every turn.

Since then, the relationship between the two nations has been characterized by alternating phases of intense confrontation and cautious diplomacy. US actions have often been framed around containing what it perceives as Iran’s destabilizing influence, whether through supporting Iran's adversaries in the region, imposing sanctions or directly intervening in conflicts like the Iraq War.

Despite these efforts, Iran has managed to maintain a significant degree of influence in the Middle East, particularly through its use of proxy groups and alliances with regional powers.

Superpower Reluctance

The question of whether the US is afraid of Iran is multifaceted. At the surface, it is clear that the US is not afraid in a traditional sense, after all, America has maintained an overwhelming military advantage over Iran, including the ability to deploy airstrikes, special forces and an extensive network of allies in the region. Yet, US policy towards Iran has been marked by a certain hesitancy and inconsistency, especially when compared to its approach to other adversaries.

One reason for this cautious stance is Iran’s strategic positioning in the Middle East. Iran is a regional power with significant military capabilities, including missiles that can target US interests across the Gulf.

More importantly, Iran’s influence extends well beyond its borders, particularly through proxy groups and alliances with other non-state actors such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria.

Any direct confrontation with Iran could quickly escalate into a broader regional conflict, potentially drawing in countries like Russia, China and the Gulf Arab states, all of whom have vested interests in the stability of the region.

Moreover, Iran’s vast natural resources, including its oil reserves, give it strategic leverage that cannot be ignored. US policymakers are acutely aware that any instability in Iran could have far-reaching consequences for global energy markets. The potential for Iranian provocations to disrupt oil supplies or provoke wider instability is a major concern, particularly for the global economy.

Another reason for US caution is the internal politics of Iran. The US government has at times underestimated the resilience of the Iranian regime and the widespread popular support that it can command when faced with external threats.

While there are certainly internal divisions within the Iranian political system, the government’s ability to rally nationalist sentiment around the cause of resisting US imperialism remains a powerful tool. This dynamic has often deterred the US from taking more aggressive actions, as it risks inadvertently strengthening the Iranian regime by portraying it as a victim of foreign aggression.

Yet, the most important factor in the US reluctance to fully confront Iran is likely the prospect of a protracted military conflict. A full-scale war with Iran would be costly, both in terms of human lives and resources. The memory of the Iraq War, still viewed by many as a quagmire, remains a potent reminder of the dangers of military intervention in the Middle East.

For the US, the political and strategic consequences of such a war are unclear, making military escalation a last resort rather than a preferred strategy.

Iran's Role in Middle Eastern Instability

Iran’s role in the Middle East is equally complex and cannot be reduced simply to its antagonism towards the US. At its core, Iran sees itself as a defender of the Shia Muslim sect and an assertive regional power with interests that extend far beyond its borders.

Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has supported various non-state actors and proxy groups throughout the region, aiming to counterbalance the influence of Sunni Arab powers and Western-backed states.

These alliances have allowed Iran to extend its influence into places like Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and to challenge US-backed governments and military interventions. In Syria, for example, Iran has provided critical support to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, ensuring its survival during the Syrian Civil War.

This has allowed Iran to establish a long-term military presence in the region, including near Israel’s border. Similarly, Iran’s support for Hezbollah in Lebanon has bolstered its position as a key player in the fight against Israeli influence in the region.

These actions have led to significant instability. Iran’s involvement in these conflicts has drawn in rival powers, exacerbated sectarian tensions, and contributed to the displacement of millions of people.

From Yemen, where Iranian support for the Houthi rebels has fueled a devastating civil war, to Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias have fought against US forces and influenced political dynamics, Iran’s proxies play a central role in much of the region’s instability.

The Need for Iran to Adhere to a Rules-Based International Order

While US hesitancy in dealing with Iran can be understood in light of these geopolitical complexities, there is no doubt that Iran’s behaviour in the Middle East poses a significant threat to regional and global stability.

As the largest state sponsor of terrorism, according to the US Department of State, Iran’s continued support for proxy groups that fuel conflict, sectarianism and instability undermines the possibility of a peaceful and stable Middle East.

At the heart of the problem is Iran’s refusal to adhere to the rules-based international order that has governed global relations since the end of World War II. The principles of state sovereignty, non-intervention, and respect for international law are essential for peace and stability, but Iran’s actions often disregard these principles in favour of advancing its own interests through force and coercion.

Iran’s support for armed groups across the region violates the sovereignty of states and escalates conflicts that could otherwise be resolved through diplomacy. These actions also contribute to the suffering of civilians caught in the crossfire. The international community, led by the United States and its allies, must push for Iran to abide by international law and cease its support for violent proxy groups.

Conclusion

The US may not be “afraid” of Iran, but it has certainly struggled to find a coherent and effective strategy to counter the Islamic Republic’s influence in the Middle East.

This struggle is not a result of fear, but rather a recognition of the complex, multi-dimensional nature of US-Iran relations, where military escalation could lead to unintended consequences. Nevertheless, the US and its allies must continue to engage diplomatically and strategically to curb Iran’s destabilizing activities while advocating for a rules-based international order.

Iran, for its part, must recognize that its continued interference in the affairs of other nations only contributes to its isolation and the enduring instability in the Middle East. Without a concerted effort from both sides, the region’s troubles will only persist, with global repercussions.