Coup leader of Niger, Guard chief General Abdourahamane Tchiani
So nothing is ever settled in politics, huh?
After similar socio-political upheavals in Mali and Burkina Faso, comes Niger.
Yes, of course, they are all neighbours and once the political upheaval bug had bitten someone there, it could be expected that (like Covid 19) it would at least try and move towards “pandemic” status.
But it’s still a shock. Few could have predicted that after all the vitriol that had been poured on the recent activities in the region of – in particular – the nebulous Russian mercenary/freelance force called Wagner, we would be looking into the barrel of a rifle once again.
Sadly we again see shadowy military figures in fatigues, whose intentions ( and sometimes even s) are unknown to us.
We probably will never know the full truth regarding why they acted, for quite a while. In the meantime, some nasty realities stare us in the face: a constitutionally-elected President has been overthrown and detained by forces led by his presidential guard.
The top military brass who could have reversed the coup and put the President back in power appears to have joined the “rebels”. Are they acting in complete freedom or are they acting to save their skins? We can’t know! But it is true that "treason" does not succeed because if it is successful, "none dares call it 'treason'"
But we do need to find out whether the elected President has done something silly that contributed to bringing his country to this horrible past.
Was he too close to the French? Or the Americans? Had he shown little concern for the social problems that the youth of the country ( in particular) face and which are so easily seized upon by jihadists and their ilk?
Let us not make any mistake about it: we have seen, in the past, too
Many politicians played into the hands of ambitious soldiers, who overthrew regimes based on many a logical-sounding premise, that, in the end, proved to be hogwash or snake oil.
The question of motive is never easy to answer. In Niger, for instance, huge crowds have thronged the streets in demonstrations organised in support of the coup-makers.
The demonstrators brought a halt to traffic in the streets of Niamey, and some demonstrators stoned French properties.
Even though the phenomenon of ”rent-a-crowd” is not unknown in West Africa (as elsewhere) the TV pictures from Niamey were quite staggering. No wonder the French have been evacuating their citizens as well as those of some of the other Western countries that have been active in Niger in the military and political fields in recent times.
Despite this clue to what may lie behind the pullout, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has applied its usual remedy of giving the coup-makers “one week” within which to reinstate the ousted President, Mr Mohamed Bazoum. Perhaps this was only to be expected. However, ECOWAS should learn the lesson that following the policy choices of foreign countries can be a costly mistake.
Of course, it is true that ECOWAS is often left with few options. It most certainly could not have watched the Niger developments without acting. So it has, in line with precedent, imposed sanctions on the new military regime.
More seriously, ECOWAS has threatened to use force against the regime, if it fails to reinstate the ousted President Bazoum.
The Niger coup leaders, on their part, have warned ECOWAS against ‘military intervention’. They have been joined in their defiance by the military rulers of Mali and Burkina Faso.
Meanwhile, the African Union (AU) also following precedent, has added its voice to the demands of ECOWAS + although the AU somehow extended the period during which Mr Bazoum should be reinstated, to three weeks.)
The situation is pathetic. Like most military coups in Africa, this Niger takeover also contains the seeds of its demise and further the outbreak of further confusion.
To begin with, it is General Abdourahmane Tchiani, head of the Niger Presidential Guard, who appears to have become the leader of the new regime. Will that be completely acceptable to the rest of the top military brass, some of whom must be his career seniors?
Also important will be the “ideological” inclinations of the new regime’s leaders. Is there an opportunistic "young Turk" waiting in the wings to liquidate the "old guard"?
The ousted President, Mr Mohamed Bazoum, has been described as a member of a “group of elected presidents and pro-Western leaders in the Sahel”.
In the wake of the armed conflict with jihadists which has seen the murder of many civilians by jihadists in Mali and Burkina Faso, there is little doubt that Niger's troubles have only just begun.
Unresolved issues are the possible role of Wagner and indeed Putin's government in Niger's future. With its uranium deposits, the country will also, possibly be of interest to the Chinese.
I am sure that we in Niger's immediate neighbourhood are going to have to lose a great deal of sleep over Nige's future, not least because we face the same jihadist threat that Mali Burkina Faso and now Niger face.
It's the easiest thing in the world to become dependent on foreign powers to solve the problem for one. But unfortunately, that doesn't always work.
Meanwhile, the United States has warned that its aid to Niger could be at stake. But the jihadists would be happy if that happened, wouldn't they?
ECOWAS thus needs to act very wisely in coming to terms with the Niger situation. In 2022, ECOWAS agreed to create a “regional security force” to intervene against armed groups in ECOWAS countries and prevent military coups. But details on the force and its funding are yet to be announced.
Apart from threatening the Niger coup leaders with military intervention, ECOWAS has also imposed financial sanctions on the coup leaders and the country, and frozen “all commercial and financial transactions” between member states and Niger.
That has brought a swift reaction from Niamey. In defiant, a defiant statement read out on Niger's national television, a member of the new military government, Amadou Abdramane. said the ECOWAS aim was to “approve a plan of aggression against Niger, in the form of an imminent military intervention in Niamey”. Such an intervention, he claimed, would be “in cooperation with African countries who are not members of ECOWAS”, aided by “certain Western nations”. Tough words but what could we expect?
Among the bizarre attempts to mediate in the Niger situation, one stands out: the president of Chad, General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, arrived in Niamey last weekend, to take part in efforts to help resolve the Niger crisis. It sounds strange because – the Chad leader was himself made President by the military in Chad after his father had been killed in the civil war that had been going on in Chad! Well, who knows? He might just bluff his way to success. I salute him sincerely.
