The dilemma of the NDC in understanding the results of the presidential primaries of the New Patriotic Party

As part of the process leading to getting someone to succeed President Akufo-Addo to ride on the flag of the party to the 2024 general elections, the constitution of the New Patriotic Party demands that the party should conduct primaries to elect a leader.

Article 13 Clause 2 sub-section 3 of the party’s constitution requires that for a candidate to be declared the winner, the person must secure more than fifty percent of the total valid votes cast. In compliance with the Constitution of the party, the New Patriotic Party held its presidential primaries on November 4, 2023, to elect its leader.

The vice president, His Excellency Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, emerged victorious at the end of the contest. The vice President secured over sixty percent of the valid votes cast which makes him the winner. His closest contender, Hon Kennedy Ohene Agyapong secured thirty-seven percent, Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto secured about 0.78 percent, and Hon Francis Addai-Nimoh secured about 0.43 percent.

The largest opposition party in Ghana, the NDC, finds it difficult to fathom and appreciate the results, as they seem to compare the percentage secured by the vice president, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia to its perennial flagbearer's percentage, John Mahama in their primaries both in 2023 and suggest that it is an indication that the opposition party will win the 2024 general elections.

The above position of the largest opposition party is fallacious and outlandish for various reasons which are substantiated below;

Firstly, the percentage secured by the vice president is the highest for a first-time contestant in the history of presidential primaries of the New Patriotic Party. Professor Albert Adu Boahen, one of the founding members of the party and the first flagbearer of the party secured 56% in 1992, former president John Agyekum Kuffour who became the first President produced by the New Patriotic Party secured 51% in 1996, president Nana Addo Danquah Akufo-Addo secured 47% (his second context to be a flagbearer) in 2007, and Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia secured 61% in 2023.

This therefore makes him the highest winner in the first contest of the presidential primaries of the NPP.

The opposition party again makes the allegation that the vice president was the establishment candidate in the election, and therefore, he should have secured more than what he got. But the opposition forgot that in 2007, they and some other Ghanaians described Alan Kyerematen as the establishment candidate, yet he secured 32% against the 47% of candidate Akufo-Addo. There was alleged intimidation of government appointees who supported Candidate Akufo-Addo in the process leading up to the 2007 primaries, which was not the case in the 2023 contest.

This is because there were government appointees who openly declared their support for other candidates rather than the vice president but no one intimidated them. It can therefore be said that the vice president is a grass-roots candidate.

The opposition party is unable to comprehend that the New Patriotic Party does not operate on an establishment candidate basis. This argument is supported by the precedent that was previously mentioned regarding Alan Kyerematen in 2007, which was unsuccessful. Although it was evident that John Boadu was purported as the establishment candidate in the race for general secretary, he was defeated by Justin Frimpong Kodua on 16th July 2022 at the national delegates conference at the Accra Sports Stadium. This demonstrates unequivocally that the establishment candidates listed above would have prevailed in the polls if the NPP establishment was any indication.

More to the point, the NDC as a party has never had any competitive presidential primaries in its history. This claim is backed by the following data. After the late president Jerry John Rawlings had finished his second term as president, there was a need to conduct primaries to elect a successor to replace Rawlings according to the constitution of the NDC.

This did not occur; rather, President Jerry John Rawlings appointed his successor, and Professor John Evans Atta Mills became the beneficiary of this undemocratic act. This became the popular Swedru declaration. There was no contest for the former president John Mahama in 2012, there was no contest in 2016.

In addition, the former president John Mahama contested in his second contest as a flagbearer after he lost an election as an incumbent president in 2016. In 2020, he contested to be a flagbearer, in 2023, he contested again to be a flagbearer of the NDC. Therefore, he has enjoyed a monopoly in the party for a long time considering the times he was not contested when he was the president.

It can therefore be argued that the former president has controlled his party as the number one person for a long time, and therefore juxtaposing his control of the party to that of the vice president is not a fair game. This is because he has been the president on the ticket of the party before, and as a result, he has taken charge of the party.

Ultimately, it is not fair to compare the contenders of the vice president, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia to that of the former president, John Mahama in the parties’ primaries both held in 2023. This is because the former president contested against candidates with little clout in their party.

The same cannot be said for the vice president, as evidenced by the fact that several members of parliament view his closest rival, Hon. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, in the 2023 presidential primaries as their political godfather due to his influence within the party. The party's grassroots members admire him.

Given that, he has over 20 years of experience as a member of parliament and has long been a party fundraiser, it is reasonable to assume that some segment of delegates will reward him with their votes.

Given the foregoing explanation, it can be seen as a premature ejaculation and self-tickling for the NDC to infer that the vice president's share of the votes indicates the opposition party will win the upcoming general elections.

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