Writing in June, American political commentator, Harry Siegel argued that it was possible for the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of America, Barrack Obama to win the popular vote and still lose the presidential election.
The writer argued that until 2000, it hadn't happened in more than 100 years, but plugged-in observers from both parties see a distinct possibility of Barack Obama winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College — and with it the presidency — to John McCain.
Here's the scenario as Siegel puts it: Obama racks up huge margins among the increasingly affluent, highly educated and liberal coastal states, while a significant increase in turnout among black voters allows him to compete — but not to win — in the South. Meanwhile, McCain wins solidly Republican states such as Texas and Georgia by significantly smaller margins than Bush’s in 2004 and ekes out narrow victories in places such as North Carolina, which Bush won by 12 points but polls presently show as a tossup, and Indiana, which Bush won by 21 points but McCain presently leads by just 11. According to Tad Devine, who served as the chief political consultant for Al Gore in 2000 and as a senior adviser to John F. Kerry in 2004, "it certainly is a possibility. Not a likelihood, but it is a real possibility." Qanawu isn’t so sure if Harry and Tad still hold the same view after Obama named his running mate and accepted his party’s nomination. Obama is clearly a phenomenon - a growing phenomenon.
Obama is fighting the November 4 election with an old, not-so-healthy man who has won the respect and admiration of his fellow citizens for his life-long service to the motherland.
Yet, the vast majority of Americans are not convinced that colourless McCain has anything new to offer – they simply don’t want to go back to the Bushite ways of doing things.
They want to move forward with change that they can believe in; they want to renew their belief in America. The candidacy is as inspiring as the early morning nutrition tip on Joy Fm – which only signals to listeners: time to switch channels.
Here in Ghana, until recently Ghanaians were bombarded with all manner of surveys apparently indicating that the NDC was doing better than the NPP. Indeed, with all the polls made public, only a minority - the ones conducted by the Daily Dispatch and the NCCE have put the NDC ahead of the NPP. Indeed, NCCE was only bold enough to put the NDC less than half a percentage point above the NPP.
The survey conducted by the National Commission for Civic Education in April had the NDC leading with 42.9 percent, and the NPP next with 42.6 percent, a difference of 0.3 percent. The Daily Dispatch’s latest survey was in June. It said Mills was winning in the Greater Accra, Central, Western and Northern Regions.
Well, Ben, you should have been in Tamale yesterday and witnessed the Bawumania for yourself. As for the Central and Western Regions, for any analyst to believe that the NDC can overturn NPP’s vast majority with the same candidate and the same 2004 manifesto promise for 'a Better Ghana’ which was rejected, then the paymasters of that analyst should review their payroll. Moreover, for any keen observer, more published polls (Afrobarometer from CDD, Danquah Institute and Primary Research Association) put the NPP beyond the reach of the NDC. So where from this perception that NDC appears to be winning? For example, in one of the most comprehensive polls conducted, the results of the 2008 Afro Barometer Survey by the CDD showed the NPP recording 46% of votes cast followed by the NDC with 23%, and a huge chunk of undecided voters. Also, another of the country’s leading pollsters, Primary Research Associates, conducted a nationwide public opinion survey which put the 2008 Presidential Candidate of the NPP a clear 11.6 percentage points ahead of his closest rival, the flag bearer of the NDC, Prof Atta Mills.
However, the survey, conducted between Friday, June 20 to Sunday, June 29, stopped short of giving Nana Akufo-Addo an outright victory at the first round. Of the 2,200 people polled, 48.3% believed Nana Akufo-Addo would win if elections were held on the day, followed by Prof Mills with 36.7%. Let us take all the polls for what they are worth and accept them without prejudice or scrutiny. Between April and June, Nana Akufo-Addo was busily uniting his party, limiting his campaign tours to the very few ‘orphan’ constituencies across the country and traveling the world announcing himself. The NPP was at the same time caught up in very bruising parliamentary primaries. The NDC elected their flagbearer in 2006. By May 2008 the party’s campaign was in full swing – Mills had been to the Central and Western Regions as many times as he’d lost elections. NDC had launched their campaign and named Mills’ running mate – John Mahama. He’s youthful, handsome and simply nice – a great swimmer in the deep pool of swing votes.
On top of all that, the global food crisis, fueled octanely by record hikes in crude oil prices, was hitting Ghanaians very hard in the pocket. Never mind the fact that our neighbours were hit even harder.
The NDC was also busily redefining to Ghanaians who Nana Addo ought to be in their view, a hopeless cocaine addict, who is constantly high on coke even when impressing the whole world at the UN Security Council.
While all these were going on, chairs were being violently and intimately exchanged at NPP primaries. Never mind that less than 4% of more than 200 contested NPP primaries faced difficulties, with NDC holding competitive primaries in only about 30 constituencies.
But, things were certainly meant to change. The NDC had pitched and peaked too early with their negative and false propaganda. First was the IEA encounter with the Presidential Candidates clearly confirming Akufo-Addo as a more formidable, consummate, confident, committed and ready political leader than the others.
The unbelievable crowd at the Kasoa and Sekondi rallies; the masterstroke of a selection which has Deputy Governor of the central bank, Mahamudu Bawumia as Nana’s running mate; Nana’s larger following in the Central Region where both leading candidates were campaigning last week and the greater clarity and persuasiveness of his message, buttressed by President Kufuor’s superior record, have all combined to show where the smart money must be.
The opposition parties have enjoyed a free joy ride on the global price hikes. But, even that seems to be running out on gas. Crude oil prices are falling; Ghana is expecting a bumper harvest next month; and Nana and Bawumia are set and ready to go all out making the case why Ghana must move forward.
The NDC had a chance to stretch the NPP in the polls but failed to do so. This, in Qanawu’s view is because, though Ghanaians were unhappy with the rising cost of living, their unhappiness with the NPP could not translate into a preference for the NDC because the people know that when all is said and done, NPP can be trusted to better manage the economy.
There are clear indications of this in all the opinion polls. In the Primary Research Associates survey a number of areas was suggested as the "one most important problem facing us" as a nation. The list reads as follows: jobs (31.9%), high fuel prices (25.1%), high food price (10.9%), roads (5.4%), water (4.7%), health facility (4.5%), schools (4.1%), electricity (2.9%), security (2.8%), affordable housing (2.2%), and financial difficulties (2.1%), among others.
Yet, like in other cases, more people (48.5%) felt the NPP was the party most likely to solve these problems. Only 35.6% had faith in the NDC; 5.6% were prepared to chance the economy with the CPP. A number of them (7%) did not know or could not tell, while 0.8% believed no party would solve their identified problem.
A specific demand to know whether respondents agreed that the "NPP is on the right path with the country’s development" elicited the answers "yes" (52.6%), "no" (33.3%) and "can’t tell" (14.1%).
If things progress as they are, Qanawu predicts Nana winning the presidential election with 54.5% of the popular votes. Mills can count on a cool 41.5% and Edward Mahama receiving 1%. The biggest achiever should however be Nduom, who can be expected to more than double what his party had in 2004, with at best 2.9% of the 2008 poll results. That may seem tiny but a tremendous improvement (more than 100%) on the Aggudey performance.
Still, the NPP should not follow the NDC way of being more concerned about making others feel good about the NDC than making Ghanaians feel good about themselves. The greatest threat to the NPP wining the Presidential race is posed by the party’s parliamentary candidates in the safe constituencies. They should not be allowed to be complacent!
In all life one should comfort the afflicted, but verily, also, one should afflict the comfortable, and especially when they are comfortably, contentedly, even happily wrong.
Candidates in safe constituencies across the country and in NPP regional strongholds such as Ashanti and Eastern Regions must know they have to seriously up their game.
Yes, the parliamentary primaries were overly expensive, draining the pockets of many of the victors. The temptation for those contesting safe seats is to think that since they only need a simple majority (first past the post) to win the parliamentaries, they can just relax and count down the days. For good measure, Plato called complacency the companion of loneliness. You can win a safe seat and be lonely on the Minority side of the House if you don’t work towards putting the presidency also in the bag.
Put together the margin of victory scored by the NDC in all the four regions the party won in 2004 (Volta, North, Upper East and Upper West Regions), it is still lower than the NPP’s margin of victory in Ashanti Region alone! This shows how extremely important winning big in Ashanti is for the NPP.
Mac Manu and Nana should be clear in telling their parliamentary candidates what the score is. Clearly, in Qanawu’s view every NPP candidate should be set a target of at least a percentage point more than what was received in their respective constituencies in 2004. That should be the benchmark for inclusion in any vertical future arrangement, in Qanawu’s calculation.
Complacency is a state of mind that exists only in retrospective: it has to be shattered before being ascertained. There are simply no safe seats, as far as winning the pesidential race is concerned.
Join Qanawu again next week as we move forward on another issue.
