US 2020 Elections - Donald Trump or Joe Biden?

Given the adverse local political, social and international events that characterised the reign of Donald John Trump, the 45th President of the United States, and later advent of the pandemic, COVID-19, it appears easy to predict the results of the 2020 presidential elections. However, that is not so.

It is because of the nature of American politics where the winner is determined by an electoral college. Winning a lot of pop heroes of Election Peace Popular votes may not make a candidate president of the US.

At play, also, is the current personality of one of the presidential candidates – Mr Trump (74), estate developer magnate, who is now president of the US.

Right at the beginning, President Trump’s White House was rocked by allegations.

One of these is the allegation that he collaborated with Russians to get the elections go to their favourite candidate, Mr Trump.

An investigative committee that examined the allegation did not pin Mr Trump to the Russians interference with 2016 US presidential elections.

Probe

A congressional probe into an alleged bid by Mr Trump to ask the government of Ukraine to investigate the son of Mr Joe Biden, Democratic presidential candidate, led to impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives. The House voted for impeachment.

However, majority decision at the Senate dismissed the call on them to remove Mr Trump from office in February 2020. Both sides of Congress voted on party lines.

Then came COVID-19 in January – when the first case was reported in the US. COVID-19 has had devastating effects on the American people and the economy. At the time of writing, 8.7 million Americans were infected and 225,000 have died.

The economy has declined by 31.4 per cent at second quarter of 2020, and 5 per cent at first quarter.

Unemployment increased rapidly as businesses closed down or underproduced. Millions of workers have filed for unemployment benefits.

Early October 2020, President Trump himself and his wife, Melania, tested positive for COVID-19.

Both were treated at the White House and Mr Trump was later hospitalised at a military facility for four days.

How have Americans reacted to all these?

Latest opinion polls indicated that Mr Biden, the former vice president of Barrack Obama, was leading at the polls by over 10 points.

Opinion polls results from “key states with the potential to decide the winner’’ showed that Mr Biden would have enough electoral votes to become president.

The states are Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Georgia, Iowa, Maine and New Hampshire.

Polls by the Economist, late October 2020, put Mr Biden in the lead to win the electoral college votes by 270 or more.

The Economists have stated that Mr Biden had 91 per cent chances of getting the electoral votes against 8 per cent for Mr Trump.

On chances on winning the popular votes, the Economist gave Mr Biden 99 per cent, and Mr Trump, one per cent.

Probability of an electoral college tie was put at less than one per cent. Astrology and numerology are regarded by some as incomplete sciences, but both have, in the past, made significant contributions by their predictions or projections of US election results.

For the 2020 presidential, some American astrologers have said this of Mr Biden: "Joe Biden is in the best days of his political career."

That follows a study of his stars and planetary configurations and calculation of his birthday details. According to American numerologists, Mr Biden will “have action-packed-few months in his political career”.

For Mr Trump, the astrologers had accurately predicted his COVID-19 attack and his quick recovery.

The predictions were based on Mr Trumps “planetary configurations”. The astrologers did not put forward a clear winner but their pronouncements clearly showed Mr Biden as the winner.

History professor

However, there is an American history professor who has invented a fool-proof system for predicting presidential election winners.

With a system he called “13 keys to the White House”, Prof. Allan Lichtman of American University, has predicted, successfully, presidential elections from 1984.

For the 2020 presidential, Prof. Lichtman has said: "Look forward to President Biden in 2021".

On Mr Trump, he has said: “Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since Bill Clinton beat George W Bush in 1992 – to lose in re-election bid.’’

The professor described his system as one that worked on “geophysical earthquake terms”.

"When there is stability, the party holding the White House keeps the White House and when there is an earthquake, the party holding the White House loses."

He has explained that each of the 13 keys represented a category on which each candidate is assessed. “When six or more keys go against an incumbent, a rival is favoured to win”, Prof. Lichtman said.

His fool-proof election prediction system is based on earthquake prediction theories, and the 13 keys or categories included economic, social, political and cultural upheavals.

Is it certain, therefore, that Mr Biden will be the next president of the United States?

It is; but Mr Trump’s America is a country of hattricks and information communication technology miracles.

Nobody knows whether Mr Trump has a fast one to pull out of his magic hat, as he did in 2016.

If he did not, then Mr Biden would win on voting day, November 3, 2020.