John Dramani Mahama and Dr Bawumia
The year 2024 will be a critical and decisive one for the politics of Ghana.
It will be the year in which Dr Mahamudu Bawumia learns the difference between political realities and plain rhetoric.
Oh yes, and it's evident for any political watcher that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and its leader, Dr Bawumia has been left battered and bruised by 2023 economic anxieties, austerity policy and cost-of-living crisis – but that doesn’t necessarily mean the opposition leader - John Mahama will win the 2024 elections.
Quite frankly, a quantitative analysis of our politics shows the 2024 presidential election may not even hinge on the economic outlook - It may well be about voter demography.
In fact, there’s an alignment between Bawumia’s political brand, the demography of muslim voters and the politics of the Northern Ghana.
Cumulatively, that leaves Mahama, a Christian from a minority tribe to do something unique in the selection of his presidential running-mate.
Of course, the presidential candidate carries the ticket and makes the argument for his election, and the VP nominee complements whatever weaknesses in style, political or geographical balance.
As several other commentators have pointed out elsewhere, beyond inflicting damage on Bawumia, and appealing to the cultural alienation and economic anxiety of the Ghanaian voter, the NDC leader must necessarily pull his party's base close and set his cruise control on undecided voters when deciding on his would-be veep.
It’s true though that sometimes a Vice-Presidential pick meant to appease regional and ethnic groupings can backfire, like it happened in 2020 when central region ditched the NDC for NPP in the presidential votes even though the NDC had an indigine on the ticket. But then it's also the case that the right Vice Presidential pick with the right political consciousness and appeal can help carry his or her home-region.
There is enough new understanding of how the notion of a home-region advantage for a Vice-Presidential nominee really works to know that the nominee ought to be someone capable of adding balance to the ticket, having greater voter appeal and electoral plus.
For one thing, the NDC needs to look forward, and do things that would give hope and be universally appealing to all of the electorate - It is all down to who partners Mahama - a great choice acceptable by all will definitely achieve a greater change for the ordinary Ghanaians and claw back hope for the common good.
Surely, 2024 will be quite an election. Both the leadership of NDC and NPP have positioned themselves well for the fight to come.
I hope everyone has a great year.
