Why Nana Addo won't be 3rd time lucky

Contrary to the assertion by some chiefs, mostly of the New Patriotic Party stock that, twice failed flag bearer of the biggest opposition party would be third time lucky in the upcoming November polls, facts on the ground show otherwise.

Available narratives, statistics and uncontestable evidence will show that Nana Akufo-Addo's dream of ascending the highest office of the land will continue to be a mirage after November 2016 elections.

The former Foreign Affairs Minister and former Member of Parliament for Abuakwa South in the Eastern region, from all investigation and findings on the grounds, will not only lose this year's election but will suffer his worst political humiliation after the November polls, The aL-hAJJ can confirm.

The political climate in Ghana today and Akufo-Addo's own conduct, behaviour and approach towards his ambition will show that it's utterly at variance with the personalities of late Prof Mills, Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal, General Buhari of Nigeria and even former President Kufuor, among others who were 3rd time lucky.

While the aforementioned individuals, for example, added 'something' new to their various tickets in their quest to become presidents, same cannot be said of Nana Addo.

Unlike Nana Akufo-Addo, who has maintained his belligerent, uncompromising, divisive and intimidating character even after the two excruciating defeats, Mills, Gen Buhari, Wade, Kufuor and others were very humble, submissive and identified with people regardless of their status, ethnic and political persuasion.

Nana Addo also, in all his three attempts at the presidency has maintained Dr Bawumia as his running mate thus, not adding ‘anything’ new to the ticket.

In the case of the late tax professor, after losing the 2000 elections to Mr Kufuor with Martin Alamisi Amidu as his running mate, he replaced him with Alhaji Mohammed Mumuni for the 2004 elections but again lost.

On his third attempt at the presidency in the 2008 elections, he nominated then MP for Bole-Bamboi, John Dramani Mahama as running mate and succeeded in defeating NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo and his running mate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.

Ironically, while Nana Akufo-Addo and his ilk have made countless references to “third-time lucky” candidates, what they never told us is that none of them went into each election with same running mates as he (Akufo-Addo) has maintained Dr Bawumia since 2008.

What is also missing in Nana Akufo-Addo third-time bid is that the “third-time lucky’ flag bearers in their various attempts to secure the highest office of their respective lands saw their popularity soaring unlike Ghana's Akufo-Addo whose fortunes since 2008 continue to dwindle.

Abdoulaye Wade was President of Senegal from 2000 to 2012. He was also the Secretary-General of the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) and has led the party since it was founded in 1974. A long-time opposition leader, he ran for President four times, beginning in 1978, before he was elected in 2000. He won re-election in 2007 with a majority in the first round, but in 2012 he was defeated in a controversial bid for a third term.

Wade first ran for President in February 1978 against Senghor, taking 17.38% of the vote. Subsequently, he ran in the presidential elections of 1983 and 1988, taking second place each time, behind Senghor's successor Abdou Diouf.

Abdoulaye Wade in the first round of the 2000 presidential election, held on February 27, again took second place, receiving 31% of the vote, and consequently, a second round was held on March 19. Wade won this round with 58.49% of the vote, having received the support of candidates from the first round, including third place candidate Moustapha Niasse.

On his part, Nigeria’s Muhammadu Buhari unsuccessfully ran for the office of President in the 2003, 2007 and 2011. In December 2014, he emerged as the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress for the March 2015 general elections.

General Buhari won the election, defeating incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan. This marked the first time in the history of Nigeria that an incumbent president lost to an opposition candidate in a general election. He was sworn in on 29 May 2015.

In the 2003 elections in Nigeria, Buhari, then as the candidate of the All Nigeria People's Party was defeated by the People's Democratic Party nominee, President Olusegun Obasanjo, by a margin of more than 11 million votes.

In the 2011 presidential elections, Buhari left the ANPP for the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a party that he had helped to found. He became the CPC Presidential candidate for the 16 April 2011 general election, running against incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and Ibrahim Shekarau of ANPP among others.

The elections were marred by widespread sectarian violence, which claimed the lives of 800 people across the country, Buhari’s won 12,214,853 votes, coming in second to the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, who polled 22,495,187 votes and was declared the winner.

In the run up to the 2015 Presidential elections, the campaign team of incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan asked for the disqualification of General Buhari from the race, claiming that he is in breach of the Constitution. According to the fundamental document, in order to qualify for election to the office of the President, an individual must be “educated up to at least School certificate level or its equivalent”. Buhari has failed to submit any such evidence, claiming that he lost the original copies of his diplomas when his house was raided following his overthrow from power in 1985

Buhari contested the 2015 Presidential election as candidate of the All Progressives Congress party. His platform was built around his image as a staunch anti-corruption fighter and his incorruptible and honest reputation.

In February 2015, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and other leading lights quit the ruling PDP party and threw their support behind the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket.

On 31 March, incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan called Buhari to offer his concession and congratulations for his election as president. Buhari was sworn in on 29 May 2015 in a ceremony attended by at least 23 Heads of State and Government.

Mr John Kufuor, who has been one of the reference point of Nana Akufo-Addo and his men, changed running mates two times before winning the presidency. In the 1996 elections, candidate Kufuor nominated Mr Kow Nkensen Arkaah, then sitting vice president who had fallen out with his boss, Mr Rawlings, as running mate, but lost.

Keen on adding value to his ambition to become president on his second attempt, Mr Kufuor nominated Tamale –based engineer, the late Alhaji Aliu Mahama after winning the party’s flag bearer primaries ahead of the 2000 elections and this time round succeeded in beating the late Mills.

While former President Kufuor made marginal incursions into NDC strongholds during his days in opposition and eventually succeeding in snatching Greater Accra, Central, Western, Brong Ahafo and Eastern regions from the NDC, Nana Akufo-Addo has rather taken the NPP backwards, leaving it with only two regions, Ashanti and Eastern.

After losing to Mr Kufuor and taking his party into opposition, the late Mills marshalled forces to win the regions he lost to the NPP and eventually succeeding in winning eight out of the 10 regions in the 2008 elections to defeat Nana Akufo-Addo. Before that, he had won some of the regions he lost to Mr Kufuor in 2000 elections.

An important ingredient that enabled the aforesaid people to achieve their ambitions was their ability to attract the various opposition elements to their side which made it possible for them to form alliances to dislodge incumbents in their various countries.

Additionally, the aforementioned individuals had their party ‘intact’ without divisions and rancor at the time they were gunning for the position of presidents in their respective countries and, also put out convincing and compelling alternative policies to sway voters to their sides.

In contrast, the three-time NPP flag bearer, in his quest to become absolute ruler has not only alienated the opposition parties in Ghana, but also dissipated away critical members of his party including former President Kufuor, Kwadwo Mpiani, Dr Richard Anane, Mr Paul Afoko, Kwabena Agyepong and Dr Nyaho Tamakloe among others who were also, brains behind the party’s victory in the 2000 elections.

As if the Gods has destined Nana Akufo-Addo to be “the president that never was”, the unprecedented performance of the John Mahama administration, the cohesion and united front prevailing in the NDC will be conspired to consign Mr Akufo-Addo to political dustbin come November 2016.

Aside the internal bickering in the NPP, which is threatening its survival before and after the upcoming polls, the NPP party is still struggling to put together a convincing campaign message to counter President Mahama and his NDC’s #changing lives, #transforming lives message.

In the absence of a campaign message, the NPP has resorted to making unfounded and spurious corruption allegations against President Mahama and his appointees a strategy many say would not yield them the desired result of coming back to power.