Will Bawumia be the next Atiku of Ghana?

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s performance in the 2024 elections has really got many concerned and others can't help but compare him to Nigeria’s Atiku Abubakar, raising questions about his future in Ghanaian politics.

Bawumia emerged as the NPP’s flagbearer with a significant victory in the party’s primaries. Dr. Bawumia won the NPP primaries with 61.47% (118,210 votes), dominating 14 out of 16 regions. Kennedy Agyapong followed with 37.41% (71,996 votes), securing victories in the Central and Volta Regions. Other candidates, such as Owusu Afriyie Akoto and Francis Addai-Nimoh, collectively garnered less than 2% of the votes, making the race a two-horse competition between Bawumia and Agyapong.

The bias and support of President Akufo-Addo for Bawumia's candidacy, an open secret, has been cited as the reason he faired so well as the influences of his position, the president and resources were exploited to his advantage. For once the party ritual of selecting a presidential candidate on a descending order of service over the years was disregarded. Alan Kyerematen who may have been ripe for the ticket was sidelined to his dissatisfaction and dismay of his sympathisers.

Despite his impressive primary victory, Bawumia struggled in the general election on December 7th, 2024 against John Mahama. Results by far showed Mahama defeating Bawumia with 57% of the vote to Bawumia’s 41%, a significant margin that underscores the electorate’s dissatisfaction with the NPP.

The NPP also suffered devastating losses in parliamentary seats, dropping from 137 to 79 while the NDC has by far won 186 with a handful of seats yet to be declared. Even though it is inconclusive, the NDC has to its advantage a 2/3 majority and the NPP has lost about 13 regions to the NDC. Dr. Bawumia coming out to concede is very admirable and statemanly and it was also timely to avert further embarrassment.

Many have attributed this monumental defeat to the claim of a lower voter turnout in the Ashanti Region due to voter apathy. However, this may only be an exaggerated opinion by party loyalists who may not be realistic. A whooping over 1.7 million vote difference cannot allude to voter apathy in the Ashanti Region because Bawumia failed to get 70% of all votes cast in the region. If he and the party were popular, they may have scored 80% even with a lower voter turnout or apathy. More embarrassingly, the NDC grabbed 10 seats from the Ashanti for the first time.

The NPP has to wake up and smell the coffee and realize that Ghanaians voted them out and they may only stand a chance of a comeback by accepting their defeat was to the decisiveness of Ghanaians from all corners of the country. Living in denial or playing the devil's advocate at this moment is only going to plunge them into more woes as a party.

Their defeat is largely attributed to the unpopularity of the NPP under President Akufo-Addo caused by key factors such as Economic Mismanagement, Corruption, Unfulfilled Promises and Public Disconnection(The government’s perceived arrogance and disconnect from the daily struggles of Ghanaians further alienated voters)

Like Former Vice President Atiku, who has unsuccessfully contested Nigeria’s presidency multiple times, Bawumia’s political brand may be permanently tied to the failures of his administration. His association with Akufo-Addo, internal party divisions now and potential ones to be sparked by this defeat and his dwindling credibility could hinder his chances of future success.

Bawumia may have a lot of mountains to move as there is going to be diminished support. He may not have the full backing of Akufo-Addo and even if he does Akufo-Addo's influence in the party may be less. Bawumia may therefore lack the resources and influence to stage a strong comeback.

Besides, Kennedy Agyapong’s rising popularity within the NPP will make it difficult for Bawumia to consolidate support. There will be a tussle for power and control between the Akufo-Addo Akyem factions and the Asante factions which may not favour Bawumia and yet be beneficial to Kennedy Agyapong.

The electorate may continue to hold Bawumia accountable for the NPP’s economic failures, limiting his appeal in future elections. As of now, some party-faithful soldiers have begun to finger Akufo-Addo for their loss and Bawumia may also be held liable for a long time to come.

The NPP’s defeat in 2024 should serve as a wake-up call. The party must urgently reform and reconnect with the electorate by addressing corruption, prioritizing economic recovery, and fostering internal unity. Without these changes, the NPP risks becoming irrelevant, with Bawumia’s legacy further cemented as a symbol of their decline.

Like Atiku, even if he manages to get the presidential ticket, Bawumia may find himself trapped in a cycle of repeated losses if he continues to pursue the presidency. Even with the mantra, "It is possible" there are many odds against him as a candidate.

Long Live Mother Ghana.

Watch some videos from the recent Parliamentary sittings below: