By Dr. Michael J.K. Bokor
Monday, May 5, 2014
Folks, the NPP’s Maxwell Kofi Jumah is well known for his goofs, gaffes, and gibberish; but he hasn’t made me laugh my heart out as loudly as he has done with his current deceitful cunning: “NPP targeting 2 million votes in Volta Region” (See: http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.php?ID=308252)
This kind of flea-blown utterance clearly confirms the desperation in the NPP camp. Probably, such a self-serving claim is designed to feed National Chairman Paul Afoko’s “New Plan for Power.”
Truth be told, there is nothing wrong about choosing targets to hit; what is clearly wrong about such a choice, though, is the reality behind it.
Why the Volta Region, particularly, and not the other regions with a larger voter population?
I want to tell these NPP people outright that aiming at winning 2 million votes in the Volta Region will be the most challenging or arduous task to undertake. They won’t get it, no matter what they do. There is a historical reality that informs what goes on between them and the electorate in the Volta Region, which won’t warrant expending so much energy and resources chasing the mirage that may be enticing them.
More clearly too, the rationale behind Kofi Jumah’s claim is ridiculous. So also is his over-simplification of the matter. I will explain it all soon. But first, let’s consider some facts concerning the previous elections (in the Volta and Ashanti Regions) to suggest that if anything at all, the NPP’s fortunes have shrunk, which calls for a sober reflection and re-strategizing by them. There is nothing to prove to me that they have learnt the lessons taught them by previous electoral defeats.
• Results of 2012 Presidential elections in the Volta Region:
Akufo-Addo polled 12.93%; Mahama had 85.47%. As for the Parliamentary one, forget it because the NPP lost miserably.
• Results of 2012 Presidential elections in the Ashanti Region
Akufo-Addo: 70.86%; Mahama: 28.35%
For the Parliamentary votes, the NDC performed creditably well, winning 4 seats to the chagrin of the NPP followers.
• Overall results: Mahama polled 50.70% as against Akufo-Addo’s 47.74% (which he disputed, went to the Supreme Court, only to be told the bitter truth that he wasn’t the choice of the electorate; and he sped off to London to re-strategize for Election 2016.)
In the 2008 Presidential elections, Akufo-Addo polled 49.13% (4,159,439) as against ex-President Mills’ 47.92% (4,056,634), according to information available at the Electoral Commission’s Web site (http://www.ec.gov.gh/page.php?page=395§ion=51&typ=1)
In the run-off, the table turned with ex-President Mills polling 50.23% (4,521,032 votes) and Akufo-Addo getting 49.99% (4,480,446 votes) to secure victory, thanks to the Tain constituency, especially.
There is much concerning popular votes to explain why and how the NPP lost. An analysis of the pattern of voting for 2008 and 2012 reveals a progressively significant rise in the quantum of votes given the NDC’s Presidential candidate, especially, which accounted for the overall accomplishments in the polls.
Of course, the NPP people may also point to some rise in the number of votes for their cause in some constituencies in the Volta Region to justify their optimism of a brighter electoral picture, which may be cited as enough to support Kofi Jumah's utterance. They will, however, be over-emphasizing a mere speck with which to deceive themselves. Such a perception is negligible.
NOW AND THE FUTURE
So, Kofi Jumah must revise his notes to know why the supposed backing given President Mahama by Asanteman (as reported by the Enquirer newspaper) and President Mahama’s claim that the NDC would work toward raising its tally of votes in Ashanti Region to one million at Election 2016 cannot be deflected with the lame declaration of intent that he has made.
True, voters in the Volta Region (or Ghanaians, generally) are unhappy that the government isn’t solving problems as expeditiously as they wish, but it doesn’t mean that they will readily abandon it for the NPP. I have said it several times already that more factors influence electoral decisions than these NPP people are making us believe.
Those in the Volta Region are not known historically as proponents of the Danquah-Busia ideology or anything coming from there. They are not well disposed toward putting into power a political party bearing that Danquah-Busia flag. I needn’t explain this historical imperative because the records say it all. They won’t all of a sudden troop to the Danquah-Busia camp.
It is not for any reason that the Volta Region has all these years remained as the NDC’s “World Bank”. The same applies to the Ashanti Region (the birthplace of the NPP). But the voting pattern in the Ashanti Region shows that the NDC is steadily making an inroad there, which might be the basis for President Mahama’s optimism.
There is no basis for Kofi Jumah’s optimism; and he will continue to throw dust into the eyes of those holding the purse strings and financing the NPP if he makes such assertions. There is a lot more for the NPP to do to make the kind of inroad that will be deemed as threatening to the NDC’s interests in the Volta Region.
A major factor will be the kind of candidate chosen to lead the party to Election 2016. If the lot falls on Akufo-Addo again, the NPP will dance again to its own dirge in that part of the country. Don’t ask me why.
I shall return…
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