File photo of a voter registration center
The number of registered Voters in the hitherto Volta region, in the ongoing voters' registration exercise by EC has raised arguments as to whether the previous voters' register was bloated or not in then Volta region.
There are two sides of the arguments:
(1) Argument that, if we look at where the current number of registered voters in the ongoing registration by EC stands, it can be concluded that at the end of the registration exercise, the previous number of voters (number at 2016 in Volta region) can be reached if not exceeded. Thereby rendering futile the argument that the number of registered voters in then Volta region in previous register is bloated.
(2) The counter argument; that the argument in (1) would not hold because it does not take into consideration population growth from 2016 to 2020. That if we take into consideration population growth over the period of 2016 to 2020, more people should have been added to the number of registrants in Volta region. Therefore if the number remains same as 2016 or a bit more, it would support the conclusion that the previous number was indeed bloated.
Some even limit the population growth argument to new birth and death, that new births always exceeds death, therefore from 2016 till now, there has been more birth which should see the number of voters increased.
MY TAKE
The argument (1) is too preemptive and does not give accurate yardstick to measure whether the number of registrants in then Volta region was bloated or not.
Argument (2) is premised on wrong footing and cannot hold. We cannot make "population growth" argument as being made in argument (2). Nor can we make "new births exceed deaths" argument.
My Reasons are that:
Population growth can be explained in simple terms as (Birth - Death) + (Net Migration). Meanwhile Voter registration is age specific (18years and above). 2016 to 2020 is 4 years. So new birth from 2016-2020 would not qualify to be registered, Rendering mute and inconsequential the 'birth' part of the population growth equation and the "new births" argument.
What remain now are death + net migration. That destroys the population growth argument.
The ‘death’ aspect means that some people from age 18 and above would have passed on from 2016 till now, thus should rather lead to reduction in the number of voter registrants of Volta region in 2020, not increment.
Putting the two arguments into proper perspective; I would say that the focus should be on those who 2016 to 2020 have transited from below age 18 to 18+, and net migration. The limited registration exercise that took place sometime back was meant to capture those category of people (age 18+ and new settlers; thus net migration). Hence, to know whether the number of registrants in Volta region was bloated previously or not, we may just have to subtract the number of registrants in Volta region during the limited registration exercise from the number at the end of the new voter registration exercise.
Even when we get the difference, we can further extrapolate and do other permutations. Example; if it is comparatively lower than 2016, could it have been caused by absence of genuine Ghanaians who are locked out of the country & couldn't register? Or people who didn't turn out because of covid-19? Or because this time, some couldn't return from other regions to Volta to register? But if the number is higher than 2016, could it have been that people who didn't turn out to register by 2016 because of apathy have now decided to come out register? Etc.
So, any conclusion now, that the number of registrants in then Volta region was bloated or not is premature.
