There has been a lot of angst on this forum and elsewhere about the rather crowded starting line of the race to succeed the president as the NPP’s flagbearer. Rather than a sprint race with a few contestants and a short, straight track with clearly demarcated lanes, the whole business looks more like a marathon race. The candidates are crammed together like an ‘olonka’ of ‘Keta schoolboys’ at the start line, anxiously elbowing each other and jostling for a nanosecond’s advantage over the other contestants as they seek to embark on a long, winding and tortuous route. Like all marathons, some of the contestants will fail to finish the gruelling race, instead collapsing in a pathetic heap miles from the finish line, worn out and broke.
Of course, one can hardly pretend that the spectacle of a crowd seeking the NPP mantle is edifying. It is not. In a way it cheapens the whole political process and shows a fundamental weakness of the party machinery. Whilst it would be foolish and undemocratic for the party to impose an artificial limit on the maximum number of leadership candidates permissible, it could well have introduced a nomination system where a prospective candidate has to obtain a certain minimum number of signatures from either the parliamentary caucus or some other electoral college. This would be a fair way of filtering out the wheat from the chaff (and there is a lot of chaff in this race). This crazy, sweaty, testosterone-charged field suddenly makes the NDC’s ‘Swedru Declaration’ tactics so beloved of old an attractive prospect.
Maybe the first pertinent question of the race is this: Why do grown men who know, deep in their hearts, that the chances of them winning the NPP delegates’ nod in December 2007 are about the same as Osama bin Laden and George Bush sharing a cosy cup of tea by the fireside in the Oval Office or the Tora Borah mountains, still decide to do it? Why the expense, the time, the effort and the bother only to become a has-been. Why, in the name of Sweet Jesus, oh why?
I believe I know the answers (or part thereof, at least). I think that some of the hopeless candidates (No names) are simply seeking to carve a political territory for themselves that they can use as a bargaining chip in negotiating with one of the big boys when the race becomes more competitive and interesting. As any casual observer of the political scene can surmise, is clear that there will have to be more than one round of voting. In other words, these ‘Z’ list candidates are not as daft as one might think, but cunning creatures. For instance, nothing stops Candidate X, Y or Z from saying to Candidate A, B or C, ‘Look, I got 15 votes and I know I am out after the first round, but I can encourage my supporters to back you in the next round if you promise to give me this or that plum ministerial or ambassadorial or other post on becoming leader and winning the election’ As the race progresses and wet towels get thrown into the political ring with alacrity, it would be interesting to note the negotiations, re-negotiations, subtle threats, promises, alliances and deals that would be swarming all over the place.
In my speculation, some of these candidates want their names to simply register in the national consciousness, hoping the party and the electorate will remember them for some time. I believe this is the case for the younger candidates, who will have reached politically prime ages by the time there is another vacancy for the lagbearership. If the NPP wins the election of 2008, then it is unlikely the candidature will be open for the next eight years, as the party is unlikely to seek a change of candidate after the first four years. That will put the babies of this contest in their mid-to late fifties in 2016 and therefore more realistically placed to win the nomination. I believe it is very unlikely the delegates will want to select a relatively ‘small boy’ to lead the party into the next election, given the general reverential attitudes of Ghanaians to age and experience. Of course, if the NDC were to win the next election, it is likely that the decapitation of the NPP presidential candidate will be swift and merciless, and the baby candidates might or might not want to take the poisoned chalice. Either way, I think the younger generation are in effect serving notice of their future intentions in this race. They know they can always return to fight another day, and some may be using this campaign to prepare the ground. Their best bet is to hope the party wins the election so they can try and pick up some serious ministerial experience whilst biding their time.
Of course, there must be some candidates who are on stage to simply strut around like peacocks and enjoy the tag ‘presidential hopeful’. Sadly they will remain just that. One finds it hard to adduce any reason, however flimsy, to their presence, for they are unlikely to get any significant votes to give them any influence after the first round. And it is unlikely they will ever win any nomination contest in the future, taking into account their age. There surely must be better, cheaper and less humiliating ways of getting on national television. All they bring to the scene is outright snorts of derision. In a way, I suppose they give colour to the political landscape. After all, in 1979, we had the Kwame Nyantehs, Diamond Addys and the Ackah Blay Miezahs to entertain us with their fanciful presidential ambitions. The party can only smile as it rakes in the over 5 billion cedis nomination fees expected from of all the candidates. My suspicion is that the rather high fee may give us the first casualty of the race sooner than later.
There could have been better ways of getting fewer candidates on stage. But it’s too late to pull back now. As December 2007 looms and the party temperature rises, we can only watch with amusement. I can count three or four candidates with a serious chance of winning the nomination. But at the end of the day, there will be only one bloodied, unbowed candidate left standing to hoist the Kukrudu flag into the 2008 elections, with fifteen or so political corpses lying strewn about his feet. I quite enjoy blood sports and kind of look forward to this.
Roll on December 2007!!
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