Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and John Dramani Mahama
Quite interestingly, the two major political parties in Ghana have elected Northerners to lead the respective parties. The NDC re-elected former President John Mahama as the opposition party’s flagbearer, while the ruling NPP has also elected the current Vice-president Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia as the party’s flagbearer for the 2024 presidential election.
Both candidates of these major political parties in the country are northerners.
What perhaps informed the decisions of both political parties to elect northerners as flagbearers are either coincidentally strategic or strategically coincident?
It may be a politically unwise decision to take if you have two major political parties having flagbearers from the part of the country that has a lower voter population.
The question of that keeps lingering in my mind, “Why would the NPP choose someone from the north if already its main contender has a flagbearer from the north?” That is what keeps occupying my mind.
However, from where I sit as a political watcher, let no one from the NDC think that it was a bad decision for the NPP to choose a flagbearer from the north knowing that their main contender(NDC) has already chosen someone from the same jurisdiction. It could be coincidental but strategic.
First, let us delve into the merits and demerits; ever since the NPP introduced Dr. Bawumia as a running-mate, the NPP has consistently improved its performance from one election to the other in the Northern sector of Ghana. And so, strategically, Dr. Bawumia becoming a flagbearer would afford the party an ability to penetrate, and those places become its strongholds. Maybe in their strategic plan. However, is it feasible?
Second, the Ashanti region has always been advantageous to the NPP in elections to, win massively. Furthermore, the Eastern region is becoming a stronghold of the NPP while its strength in garnering substantial number of votes from the swing regions (Greater Accra, Central, and Western regions) with an improvement in the Northern sector can easily walk them through the corridors of power in 2025.
Is it attainable considering the current state of the economy, especially electing someone who is part and parcel of this failure?
Third, the NPP's strategy is to further improve in its performance in the Northern sector as Dr. Bawumia is the flagbearer. With the attainability of this strategy, the NPP will easily “break the 8”.
However, if the NPP performs woefully below their strategic plan of making Dr. Bawumia the flagbearer, doom stares them in the face in the 2024 presidential election.
In other words, basically, if the NPP fails to improve its performance in the Northern sector to fortify the results in the upcoming presidential election, which possibly the party may likely not get the expected votes from its stronghold,(Ashanti region) as the case is envisaged, the government shall fall.
Undisputedly, the participation of the "Butterfly Movement" which is likely to thwart NPP votes in the Ashanti region in the 2024 General elections, NDC may win in the first round.
Reasons: when you analyze the voting pattern of elections under the Fourth Republic, you have no reason to doubt voters' mindset of the need to change every government after every two terms of rule. That is why every political party in government going for its second term always had the votes decreasing significantly. People are beginning to lose confidence in the government. Its overstay in power may not go down well with the majority of the people.
From my anticipation, therefore, the choice of running-mates for both the NDC and the NPP, I see Dr. Bawumia’s running-mate coming from the Ashanti region while John Mahama's running-mate from the Western region.
What I probably won't do is to mention their names. However, I am going to tell you why these choices and how they will play out in the 2024 Presidential election.
Strategically, while the NPP will be looking at regional, ethnic, and religious balance in the choice of a running mate, the NDC may be narrowing its scope to regional and ethnic balance.
Let's analyze the possibilities of such an Akan candidate, especially from the Ashanti region. Among the considerable facts, he must be able to have about 75% of the votes from the region in the next presidential election. Which, I believe, isn't going to work well, considering the emergence of the “Butterfly Movement” the uncertainty is that, fortunes of the NPP will be affected tremendously.
Despite this underlying fact, the NDC in the last election garnered over 60,000 votes from the region. Without qualms, the NDC in the 2024 presidential election is likely to garner over 80,000 votes, coupled with the number of votes Mr. Alan Kyeremanten will fetch.
And so, the possibility of such a running-mate from the Ashanti region garnering the kind of numbers that can catapult the NPP into power is doubtful.
On credibility, the potential running-mate is not bad though, however, his challenge is how he's going to convince the electorate in the Ashanti region to vote for the NPP how they used to.
Several issues in recent times, emanating from the region, do not speak volumes like before. Notably among their disappointments are the lack of massive infrastructure development and the discontinuation of projects started by the erstwhile government.
To sum it up, the flagbearer of the NPP is likely to pull a significant number of votes from the North-East Region, a reasonable number in the Northern Region, and a few from the other regions in the Northern sector. Obviously, the Eastern region is another region which many voters are likely to vote for him. The Akan running-mate from the Ashanti region will also pull a significant number of votes to the ticket(though not like before) due to the presence of Alan Kyerematen on the ballot.
Furthermore, if Alan had not been part of the election, even though there has been discontent among NPP members and the party, nonetheless, would have obviously been a gold mine for the NPP. However, no matter how Alan’s presence is downplayed, the consequences are dire for the NPP.
Former John Mahama’s choice of a running mate as I indicated, will be premised on regional and ethnic balance. The choice will mirror on winning magnificently in at least two of the three swing regions. Moreover, consideration of grassroots connectivity is also paramount in his choice and the interest of the party.
This person connected to the grassroots of the party, multifaceted in terms of experience and competence, multicultural relative to connectivity, and epitomized regional representations — Western, Western—North, Central, Greater Accra, and Upper East Regions.
What it means, this person is likely to pull into the NDC basket, votes from two or three of these swing regions, cutting some votes from the Upper East Region as well.
Ideally, the NDC's choice of running mate must go beyond just the 2024 presidential election. The party must go in for a running mate who can fit perfectly into the shoes of the flagbearer, should NDC win.
A little work would have been required for marketing.
Lucidly, the flagbearer of the NDC himself had minced no words in giving a clue of his running mate. And also indicated his choice was a minister in his government, humble and resourceful.
The clarity was made and this cleared the air that, he was going to change a running mate.
Comparatively, these two personalities who are likely and more qualified for the running mates in both the NPP and the NDC have a commonality in character and have the same area of expertise. Their choices will bring different dimensions to the narrative of Ghana's democratic dispensation.
I end by saying that posterity will exonerate me after the choices have been made and they fall in line with this projection. Which, I believe will come to pass, charts a new path.
