Ghana's Q3-2025 GDP Results: An IERPP position paper

This critical evaluation of Ghana's Q3-2025 GDP performance is presented by the Institute for Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP) to identify the key risks, structural flaws and policy measures required to stabilize and strengthen the economy.

Although the headline numbers show an expanding economy, the underlying indicators reveal slowing momentum, growing fragility, and significant exposures that require urgent attention.

In Q3 2025, Ghana's economy expanded by 5.5 percent year-on-year, compared to 7.0 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2024.

The seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate fell from 1.6 percent to 1.3 percent, indicating weaker underlying activity.

Even more concerning is the slowdown in non-oil GDP growth, which dropped from 7.8 percent to 6.8 percent, signaling that the weakness is not confined to the extractive sector.

Additionally, the GDP deflator fell sharply from 27.2 percent to 11.1 percent, suggesting that earlier nominal gains were driven by price effects rather than real productivity improvements.

The industrial sector, which recorded a steep decline from 11.4 percent to 0.8 percent year-on-year, remains the major source of growth drag.

Mining and quarrying contracted by 2.8 percent, while oil and gas declined significantly by 18.2 percent, together eliminating nearly one percentage point from overall GDP growth.

These developments highlight Ghana’s vulnerability to operational disruptions, volatility within the extractive sector, and fluctuations in global commodity prices.

The services sector continues to drive GDP, contributing approximately 3.25 percentage points of the overall 5.5 percent growth.

However, this growth is narrow and concentrated in a few high-performing subsectors, including Trade (10.0%), ICT (17.0%) and Transport and Storage (10.4%). Meanwhile, critical labour-intensive services such as Health and Social Work (–9.7%) and Accommodation and Food Services (–7.2%) are contracting, undermining job creation and limiting the inclusiveness of growth.

Despite recording a strong 8.6 percent expansion, agriculture contributed only 1.65 percentage points to total GDP growth.

The sector's reliability as a stable anchor of growth is weakened by its heavy dependence on seasonal patterns and weather conditions.

The seasonally adjusted quarterly figures—currently at 1.3 percent, below the recent average of 1.4 to 1.6 percent—further illustrate the economy’s loss of momentum.

In addition, notable fluctuations in the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (MIEA), such as the shift from 3.7 percent to 5.7 percent in July, point to ongoing data volatility and raise concerns about the stability of current estimates.

The data and accompanying charts provide compelling visual evidence of structural imbalances and a decelerating economy.

Declining year-on-year GDP growth, overreliance on a narrow set of service industries, deepening contraction in oil and gas and weakening quarterly momentum collectively paint the picture of an economy that appears to be growing on the surface but is losing strength underneath.

IERPP urges the implementation of targeted reforms to reinforce Ghana’s economic growth and resilience. Key recommendations include diversifying the industrial base, supporting manufacturing, agro-processing and MSMEs and broadening public participation in the digital economy.

Policymakers should also manage oil revenue volatility through countercyclical planning and stronger fiscal buffers, while improving data reliability by integrating confidence intervals and harmonizing MIEA and QNA methodologies.

Ghana’s Q3-2025 GDP results reveal an economy that is slowing and structurally fragile, driven mainly by a narrow cluster of service activities while the oil and gas sector continues to weigh down industrial performance.

Building a resilient and more diversified economy will require focused industrial reforms, support for job-rich sectors, enhanced data accuracy, and proactive management of extractive-sector risks.

Prof Isaac Boadi

Dean, Faculty of Accounting and Finance, UPSA

Executive Director, Institute of Economic and Research Policy (IERPP)