How can Truedare-Publican AI customs system be more expensive than ICUMS?

INTRODUCTORY POINTS:

1. ICUMS digitally manages the entire national customs infrastructure but will cost under less than GH¢2.2 billion this year.

2. Truedare/Publican AI Customs System is just an AI-Analytic tool sitting on ICUMS data to improve revenues but estimated to cost GH¢2.8 billion this year.

ESTIMATING 2026 PAYMENT FOR ICUMS

Please patiently read the analysis below to understand how dumb or wicked or both the NDC government has been signing such a contract to squeeze traders (importers and exporters) the way they’ve done.

Finding it difficult to get a direct projected FOB value our import for 2026, I used three different approaches as in below to determine 2026 FOB outturn to enable me estimate 2026 payment to operators of ICUMS.

First, I used Ghana’s total imports for 2025 estimated at about US$17–17.5 billion (FOB), equivalent to about GH¢210–215 billion and applied observed growth rate of about 10–12%. This gives a projected 2026 FOB value of about US$19.0–19.5 billion (approximately GH¢247–254 billion) using a projected average exchange rate of GH₵13 to the dollar.

Second, I applied the reserves (import-cover) approach, based on Bank of Ghana data of about 5.8 months of import cover and the corresponding reported reserves of US$10.7 billion. This gave a projected FOB value of about US$22.0–22.3 billion (≈ GH¢286–290 billion).

Third, I applied the Customs revenue back-calculation approach, using projected Customs revenue of GH¢67.54 billion and a Ghana-specific effective tax rate of about 24–25%. This also gives an estimate of about US$20.8–21.6 billion (≈ GH¢270–281 billion).

Applying the ICUMS fee of 0.75% to these estimates suggests Ghana could pay approximately GH¢1.9 billion to GH¢2.2 billion to operators of ICUMS in 2026. See? The calculations assumes there are not payment caps.

This leads to a straightforward common-sense question: how can Ghana justifiably be paying just about GH¢1.9 - 2.2 billion this year for a full end-to-end integrated customs management system, yet sign up a contract to pay as much as GH¢2.8 billion for what is described as merely an additional tool layered onto that same system?

With this level of duties and taxes being additionally extracted from traders, is it surprising the NDC government, Finance Minister and GRA’s Commissioner-General are unable to disclose the financial details of the contract? Is it also surprising that traders are chocking under the Truedare/Publican AI Customs AI system?