Although BBC is saying Ghana is through to the quarter-finals, I respectfully differ.
As things stand, if Ghana can avoid defeat by Guinea of more than 3 goals to nil, then Ghana qualifies regardless of the outcome of the Mali and Botswana game. In fact, as things stand, the Mali versus Botswana game is almost meaningless even if Mali beats Botswana by 30 goals to nil. The reason for this is if Mali beats Botswana, it means Botswana lost to all opponents in the group. As a result, CAF will drop every team’s results against Botswana in the group, leaving the judgement as to which team qualifies for the next stage down to the remaining three teams.
Let’s assume Guinea beats Ghana 3 goals to nil and Mali beats Botswana, Guinea, Ghana and Mali’s results against Botswana will be dropped and Guinea, Ghana and Mali all will have 3 points. In this scenario, head to head will not count since Guinea would have beaten Ghana, Ghana defeated Mali and Mali defeated Guinea to enable all three teams to have 3 points after throwing the Botswana results from all three teams away.
If it comes down to Guinea, Ghana and Mali all having 3 points after throwing away the Botswana results from all three team and head to head neutralized, the tie breaker will be goal difference. Under this scenario, Guinea must defeat Ghana by at least 4 goals to nil for Ghana to be eliminated.
Perhaps BBC is assuming such an outcome of Guinea and Ghana game is impossible.
As it stands at this moment, Ghana qualifies if the one of these scenarios occurs: 1) Ghana beats Guinea 2) Ghana ties Guinea 3) Guinea defeats Ghana 3 goals to nil 4) Ghana avoids a loss to Guinea by at least 4 goals to nil.
We qualifies if Guinea defeats us 3 goals to nil because at that juncture, goal deference will comes into play and Guinea will have +2, Ghana -1 and Mali -1 with all the teams having 3points each with results against Botswana dropped. If the teams emerge with such goal differences, Ghana will edge Mali by the head to head rule. A bit complicated, but I hope the above analysis makes it simply for you guys.
Our destiny is in our own hands.
Black Stars Forever!!
