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Introduction and a trip down memory lane
The NDC was formed by a ruling Military Junta that wielded enormous state power in the run up to the 1992 elections. Indeed the PNDC attracted a good number of Nkrumaists adherents so by the time the NDC came into being a good number of former CPP and PNP members and some UP members were in their fold.
You will recall in my Elections Chronicles last year I wrote about how the NDC came by their social democratic ideology. The absence of a clearly defined ideology in the onset didn’t have any tangible impact on the party however when they went into opposition in 2000 the need for a clear ideology became very crucial.
In the 1992 elections, the NDC led by Chairman Rawlings won massively by 58.4 %. They repeated the dose in 1996 but to 57.4 %.
In the year 2000 when the wind of change was blowing; the breaking away of Goosie Tandoh and his group to form the National Reform Movement which later metamorphosed into the National Reform Party, the NDC obtained 44.54 % in the first round of the polls and went further down to 43.1 in the second round won by the NPP’s John Agyekum Kufuor.
In 2004, still recovering from the shock of 2000 managed to increase from 44.54 to 44.60 %.
Luck however smiled on the NDC in 2008 after placing second in the first round with 47.92 % but managed to cross the finishing by obtaining 50.23 % in the second round.
After the tragic death of President Mills, the NDC managed to scrap through with a “one touch” victory which was subsequently affirmed by the Supreme Court in the Landmark election petition. They obtained 50.7 %.
The just ended election’s results is known by all (44.4%).
In the area of parliamentary performance it has been impressive compared to the statistics I gave about the minority parties. The 1992 Presidential elections were held in November whilst the parliamentary was held in December. After the elections the opposition parties claimed the elections were riged to favour Chairman Rawlings, they therefore boycotted the subsequent parliamentary elections.
The elections even though went ahead it lacked the enthusiasm that characterized the Presidential; the NDC and her alliance partners contested each other so the NDC captured 189 out of the 200 seats with the NCP and other independent candidates sharing the rest.
After series of consultative meetings that gave birth to IPAC (the Inter Party Advisory Committee) it was agreed that the Presidential and Parliamentary elections should be held concurrently. In 1996 the NDCs seats reduced to 133 and went down further to 92 seats in 2000.
In 2004 they increased their seats by two 94 out of 230. In 2008 the NDC won 115 seats out of 230 and won 151 out of 275 in 2012.
In 2016 the NDC managed to secure 104 out 275 seats in parliament. The use of percentages will give a good picture of the situation and will help better analysis.
In 1992 the NDC had 94 % of the seats, fell to 66% in 1996. It dropped further to 46% in 2000. Increased marginally to 47% in 2004. In 2008 when the NDC returned after 8 years absence it increased to 50% then went further up to 55 % in 2012 and dropped drastically to 37 % in the last elections.
In the light of the above information what do you think might have accounted for the defeat of the NDC?
I have classified the possible causes of the NDC’s defeat as endogenous (internal) and Exogenous (external)
The Endogenous Factors
1)The neglect of most of the old guards from the Rawlings’ era seriously created internal rift but because the party was in power it didn’t come out openly. Once a while few bold ones come out to complain a typical example is the current 2nd Deputy speaker of parliament, Hon Alban S K Bagbin .
2)Why did this happen?
In the year 2000 after President Rawlings had handpicked Prof Mills the then Veep as his “anointed successor”. Prof Mills in his excitement and to prove his loyalty to President Rawlings and the old guards said that when he becomes President He was going to consult President Rawlings 24/7; this endeared him to the NDC establishment but oiled the opposition’s propaganda machinery and used it like a chewing stick. At the time Ghanaians were suffering from a Rawlings’ fatigue and the desire for change was so strong.
After the 2000 elections the NDC needed to rebrand and reorient themselves in order to be attractive again to the Ghanaian electorates. Whilst undergoing political metamorphosis they adopted Social Democracy as their ideology. This rebranding led to the pushing of the old guards to the back burn whilst youngsters like Elvis Afriyie Ankrah , Koku Ayidoho , Haruna Iddrisu( who was a former NUGS President became their Youth Organizer),Alex Segbefia , Fiifi Kwetey and others emerged as the new face of the NDC. I remember a heated exchanges between Hon Kenedy Agyepong and Haruna Iddrisu and Ken told him , he was lucky he was not part of the PNDC establishment so had the audacity to talking and that if it was the Ahwois or Totobi Quakyes he would have dealt with them severely.
So after winning in 2008, the dilemma was how to create a good balance unfortunately they were not successful at that; the founder seemed to have been neglected. I hope you remember the founder’s attack on the Mills’ Presidency. Unfortunately the Mahama leadership didn’t seemed to have mended the “broken walls “properly. The founder didn’t partake in the campaign. How come an opposition candidate who won an election thanks him for his support?
3)The rise of a group of arrogant youngsters as a result of their success in 2008 and 2012 campaign they had a false sense of security. I remember speaking to one very senior NDC member who said because of the arrogance of his party’s leadership he wished they suffer a heavy defeat to silence the “noisy chaps”. Listening to some of the government functionaries was sometimes very irritating. The Leaders seemed to have shut their ears to good counsel. A case in point is when Hon Alban Bagbin described the president as a “naked emperor”.
The response to the “Occupy Flagstaffhouse” by the Foreign Minister Hon Hannah Tetteh on twitter and other ministers showed they were not really in tuned with what was happening in the country. Unfortunately Occupy Ghana grew from strength to strength and became a thorn in the flesh of the NDC till it left power.
4)There was also a growing disquiet among members which led to the apathy witnessed across the country especially in Volta region. In 2012, the NDC had 734,641 votes in the volta region but this reduced to 613,205, a different of 121,436 votes representing a drop of 16.5%. This was very significant. Meanwhile the NPP which had 111,149 in 2012 increased by 22,200 votes to 133,349 representing 20%. Now looking at the votes that the NDC lost and those the NPP gained its clear there was huge apathy. Most members felt neglected especially the youth who needed jobs. Some who I knew, also confided in me about how the party big men seemed to have forgotten about them and don’t even listen to them when they attended meetings, it was as if they were paragons of wisdom. Some leaders refused to pick calls from members.
5)The growing factionalism was also counterproductive. I can see the following factions: the Ewe carbal which is linked to President Rawlings and greater chunk (because some are in the other factions) of the old guards, the Northern Caucus associated with President Mahama, The Fante Confederacy led by the Ahwois who were backing the Vice President HE Amissah Arthur and the GA-Adangme group which does not really have strong frontline but is growing steadily and may pose a threat in not too distant future. So the other factions along the line felt neglected so watched on as “the NDC was being led to the slaughter”
6)The weak National youth leadership also contributed to the heavy defeat. The National Youth Organizer of the NDC was just missing in action. Both the students and youth front lacked leadership. Every thriving organization always have a very vibrant youth wing because they have the energy and can do all the leg work. It was funny when I saw what I called Opportunistic Political Dinosaurs called celebrities emerged from nowhere to now take the place of the legitimate youth leader I knew the NDC was in for trouble. Unfortunately the party seemed to have short memories about what happened to the NPP in 2008, no useful lesson was learnt.
7)Last minute decisions portrayed the government as desperate. I thought the last minute table-top payment of Nursing Trainee Allowances was ill advised. I think ones again the NDC didn’t learn from history. Why did they so soon forget President Kufour’s two desperate decisions that they the NDC used against him; the drastic reduction of fuel prices and the release of taxis drivers convicted through a new motor traffic law after the first round in 2008.
The Exogenous factors (external)
1)Perception of Corruption
There was a growing perception of corruption among government functionaries. The NDC in 2008 like the NPP in 2016 campaigned vigorously about corruption. Unfortunately the numerous scandals like the SADA, Subah, GYEEDA, Brazil World Cup Fiasco, the bus branding Saga and the government’s response didn’t engender trust among Ghanaians that it was committed to protecting the public purse. In all this not a single person person was convicted for any wrongdoing. But the activities of the Mr Martin ABK Amidu really exposed the lack of commitment of the government to retrieve the Woyome judgment debt.
2)In the midst of the above scandals, the economy was really biting hard due to the crippling power crisis which had affected virtually every aspect of the Ghanaian ; education, healthcare delivery , collapsing businesses leading to laying offs. Unfortunately the posturing of officials were sometimes so annoying. I will find time later to go deeper into the economy.
3)The government underestimated the power of the social media especially Facebook and WhatsApp. After the government had hijacked most of the media houses to the extent that for a whole week in both Kumasi and Accra the NDC bought the airtime on the morning shows on all the major stations in addition to the state broadcaster to propagate their messages.
I thought that move was ill-advised because it rather infuriated Ghanaians the more considering the fact that the economic was broke. So the NPP chose Facebook as the platform to spread their message. The NDC mocked them that instead of going to the grassroots they were on face but the results showed both urban and very rural areas all voted for the NPP making nonsense of that assertion.
4)The mainstream media also caused more damage to the government. It was through Multimedia’s Manasseh Awuni’s ground breaking works on the SADA, GYEEDA and the Ford Saga that really exposed the government very bad. Unfortunately the hostile reception of government sometime didn’t help their cause.
5)The ineffective antidote to the Intellectual fire power unleashed by the NPP through the various public lectures by Dr Bawumia did monumental damage to the NDC. Indeed Dr Bawumia was like a stubborn pathogen that a Medical Laboratory Scientist is not able to find the appropriate antibiotic that can kill it after conducting all the necessary sensitivity test. The NDC didn’t lack economic thinkers but some of the big brains have been sidelined for so long, how do you then deploy them when you were under fire.
Someone like Hon Moses Asaga is very experienced and remember the hell he gave Hon Osarfo when he was the Finance Minister he was the Minority Spokesperson on Finance. He could have match Dr Bawumia but I am also not oblivious of the fact that some people want to be heard on radio so certainly will not give space to anyone. It was very pathetic how the NDC struggled to respond to Bawumia’s lectures. No wonder eventually the President himself started responding which truly showed that they have exhausted all their bullets.
6)Nana Addo became like a bacteria that had grown resistances to a particular antibiotic. In 2008 and 2012 the NDC tagged Nana Addo as drug peddler, arrogant and violent especially after the infamous “all die be die” speech.
The way Nana Addo accepted the Supreme Court Verdict and went ahead to urge his party to accept it without going for a judicial review killed off the earlier NDC propaganda against him. Therefore handling him became problematic.
7)The desire for change was so strong that the NDC couldn’t withstand it and this is evidenced in the way their message kept changing until finally it settled on infrastructure growth. The last hour attempts to stabilize the power situation was greeted with skepticism especially when the electricity tariffs kept soaring.
My second part will conclude the piece by looking at the possible challenges and the way forward.
Thanks ones again for making time to read this piece. I am very grateful!
# Thoughts of a Village Laboratory Scientist
