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The Institute for Energy Security (IES) is projecting that fuel prices will fall again in the second pricing window of December 2018, revealing that the expected reduction will be the fourth consecutive time fuel prices has fallen at the pump, something that has not happened in 30 months.
A statement issued by the Research and Policy Analyst of the IES, Mikdad Mohammed copied to MyNewsGh.com said the reduction “will be the fourth consecutive time prices are falling in 30 months”, adding that “Ghanaians are expected to enjoy the yuletides with lower fuel prices.”
According to the IES, Ghanaians should expect the reduction because “prices of both Gasoline and Gasoil reduced on the international fuel market averaging 9%. Brent crude also experienced a 6.22% fall in average price while the Ghanaian Cedi recorded a 1.42% depreciation against the U.S. Dollar.”
“Based on these petroleum and oil indicators, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) can once again project that fuel prices would fall at the pump.” Mr Mohammed said.
Read IES full statement below:
FUEL PRICES TO GO DOWN AGAIN
REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2018 FIRST PRICING-WINDOW
Local Fuel Market Performance
For the Pricing-window under review, prices of both Gasoline and Gasoil were reduced by all Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) as projected by the institute. National average prices of both Gasoline and Gasoil fell from Ghc5.05 to Ghc4.98 across the country; representing a 1.3% drop in prices. While the reduction did not largely reflect market fundamentals, some OMCs had to reduce beyond 1.3% to compete for market share. For the second consecutive Pricing-window, Zen Petroleum, Benab Oil, Pacific, SO Energy Lucky Oil Frimps Oil and Alinco Oil continue to sell the least-priced Gasoline and Gasoil on the local market as monitored by IES Market-Scan.
World Oil Market
Brent crude price continue to decline on the global market, with prices within the last 14 days averaging $60.56 per barrel, a reduction from the previous average price of $64.58 per barrel. This represents a drop of 6.22%, coming at a time OPEC hopes to squeeze supply and push crude prices up with Saudi Arabia has announcing plans to cut down oil exports by up to 1 million bpd by January 2019. Standard and Poor’s Global Platts benchmark shows a downward trajectory for prices of both Gasoline and Gasoil; with Gasoline averaging $515.86 per metric tonne (price reduction of 9.732%) and Gasoil also recording a significant reduction of 9.85%; closing trading at $576.70 per metric tonne over the last two weeks.
Local Forex and Fuel Stock
Over the last 14 days, the Ghana Cedi lost marginal value against the U.S. Dollar, with the local currency trading at an average of Ghc4.98; a depreciation of 1.42% compared to the previous average of Ghc4.91. From December 1st, 2018 to date, total petroleum imports stands at 121,600 metric tonne; 61,000 metric tonnes of Gasoline, 28,200 metric tonnes of Gasoil, 10,000 metric tonnes of Jet Fuel (ATK), 6,400 metric tonnes of Butane (LPG) and 16,000 metric tonnes of Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO).
PROJECTIONS FOR DECEMBER 2018 SECOND PRICING-WINDOW
The prices of both Gasoline and Gasoil reduced on the international fuel market averaging 9%. Brent crude also experienced a 6.22% fall in average price while the Ghanaian Cedi recorded a 1.42% depreciation against the U.S. Dollar. Based on these petroleum and oil indicators, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) can once again project that fuel prices would fall at the pump. This will be the fourth consecutive time prices are falling in 30 months. As indicated in the December 2nd Pricing-window, Ghanaians are expected to enjoy the yuletides with lower fuel prices.
MIKDAD MOHAMMED Research and Policy Analyst 0244374325
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