Ghanaian cedi and US dollar notes
Databank Research has unveiled its 2025 economic projections for Ghana, presenting an optimistic outlook for the country's currency.
According to the report, the Ghanaian cedi is expected to end 2025 at approximately GH¢17.70 to the US dollar, with a margin of error of ±GHp20.
This forecast is underpinned by anticipated growth in gold reserves and an upgrade to Ghana's economy, which should boost investor confidence and improve the market outlook.
“We expect a successful 2024 election to bring renewed confidence in the Ghanaian economy, leading to increased foreign direct investments and portfolio inflows. This development would bolster investment sentiment around the GHS [Ghana cedi] and reduce speculative attacks on the currency,” the report stated.
Post-election, the new government is expected to prioritise strengthening local mining companies to increase gold production.
Ghana's gold reserves have been steadily increasing, reaching 37.52 metric tonnes by the second quarter of 2024.
This growth is projected to surpass 2023 levels, which stood at 1,000 metric tonnes as of December 2023.
“We believe the move will further augment gold reserves and offer a potential cushion for the GHS [Ghana cedi],” the report added.
Ghana's creditworthiness has also improved following Moody’s and Fitch’s upgrades to the country's long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings after the successful restructuring of its Eurobond debt in Q3 2024.
Moody’s raised its rating from "Caa3" to "Caa2" and assigned a positive outlook, while Fitch upgraded Ghana's USD bonds from "CCC" to "CCC+".
The research expressed optimism about Ghana's economic prospects, anticipating further upgrades in ratings due to ongoing improvements in economic indicators.
“We expect a further upgrade as the rating agencies cited continuous improvements in economic indicators as key to higher ratings. These developments are likely to improve sentiments around the GHS [Ghana cedi] and allow for its stability,” the report noted.
The Ghanaian cedi ended 2024 with a year-end depreciation of 21.3%, closing at GH¢15.75 on December 31, 2024.
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