ASHANTI GOLDFIELDS: Wrong footed

It would have been strange if the savage rally in the gold price had not wrong-footed some in the market. Ironically, the central banks have managed to put the squeeze on one of the developing nation producers whose businesses they were trying to bolster with their recent confidence-boosting statement. The 25 per cent jump in the price of the metal over the last fortnight has certainly succeeded in whipping the rug from under Ashanti Goldfields, a heavy hedger. The good news is that the rise has increased the value of Ashanti's unhedged reserves. But in the short term a net hedge of 10m ounces has backfired spectacularly, leaving the company exposed to the tune of $570m at a gold price of $325.

It would have been strange if the savage rally in the gold price had not wrong-footed some in the market. Ironically, the central banks have managed to put the squeeze on one of the developing nation producers whose businesses they were trying to bolster with their recent confidence-boosting statement. The 25 per cent jump in the price of the metal over the last fortnight has certainly succeeded in whipping the rug from under Ashanti Goldfields, a heavy hedger. The good news is that the rise has increased the value of Ashanti's unhedged reserves. But in the short term a net hedge of 10m ounces has backfired spectacularly, leaving the company exposed to the tune of $570m at a gold price of $325.
If Ashanti's balance sheet were stronger, it could probably trade through the crisis, by paying margin calls as they fall due and eventually delivering the gold. Its banks have provided it with leeway on this front by agreeing on a temporary standstill agreement. But Ashanti's lack of openness has not helped to reassure investors. With its shares in freefall, it seems likely that Lonmin, the UK group formed from Lonrho's rump, will pick up a bargain. Since Lonmin already owns a third of Ashanti, it will have first refusal on the company. Much will depend though on whether Ashanti's banks agree to cap its liabilities. If so, other bidders, including South Africa's Anglo American and Canada's Barrick, might also be interested in riding to the rescue. But Lonmin will presumably feel reluctant to sell up without a very attractive offer.